This feels like the longest general election in history. We have known who the candidates would be for almost a year now. For a while, it seemed like the election would never end, but we are only six months away. The first debate is in less than a month. Donald Trump’s VP announcement will soon follow, and then the conventions. We are off to the races.

Before you throw your phone, tablet, or laptop into the nearest body of water, remember just how high the stakes are in this election. Our democracy and freedom are hanging by a thread. As painful as it may seem, few elections can boast volunteers, organizers, and activists with so much potential impact.

Let me explain.

First, the models suggest this election will be at least as close as 2020 — when Biden won by about 40,000 votes across a small handful of states.

Second, while the narrative attests that everyone is locked into their positions and no one is moveable, the polls tell a different story. As much as a fifth of the electorate is either undecided or willing to change their mind before the election. This is a massive universe of persuadable voters especially for a race between an incumbent and former President.

Third, to win, Biden doesn’t need a single person who voted for Trump in 2020 (although we would gladly welcome them into our coalition). Our targets are people who voted for Biden in 2020, especially Black, Hispanic, and younger voters. We know these people. They are in our lives. Their numbers are in our phones. We are connected to them via social media.

Finally, changes in the media environment mean these folks are only reachable through one-on-one conversations over the phone, at the door, or in text group chats.

Message Box was created as a way to use my experience in politics to prepare people for those conversations with their RFK-curious cousin or their Biden-skeptical former roommate. I help put the news in context and provide messaging guidance based on polling and data.

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This newsletter started as a side project while I was stuck at home during the 2020 election. It’s grown into a much larger enterprise — with nearly 65,000 total subscribers, and now takes more time and incurs more overhead costs, including editing, research, and web hosting. Every new paid subscriber supports this work, allowing me to grow the community and take on new projects. All support is greatly appreciated, but mostly I want to thank you for coming along for the ride and being part of this community.

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