On Saturday, a gunman attempted to assassinate Donald Trump during a political rally. Trump avoided serious injury, but the gunman killed firefighter Corey Comperatore, who was attending the rally with his family. Two other attendees remain in critical condition. It was unquestionably a horrific incident with tragic consequences. 

At this point, however, the motivation for the attack is less clear. The circumstances might suggest the shooter, identified by the authorities as 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks, was a liberal opponent of Donald Trump. But Crooks registered as a Republican on September 28, 2021.

Crooks was also described by one of his high school classmates as "slightly right-leaning," while another "pegged him as a Republican." After firing shots at Trump, Crooks was killed by a Secret Service sniper. Crooks was found wearing a t-shirt for Demolition Ranch, a popular YouTube channel that makes videos about guns and explosives. While Demolition Ranch is not expressly political, it does not produce content that typically appeals to liberals. 

On the other hand, three-and-a-half years ago, on January 20, 2021, Crooks donated $15 to the Progressive Turnout Project. The group, which is aligned with Democrats, solicits small contributions with an avalanche of texts and emails. Most of the money raised goes to its consultant, Mothership Strategies.

Popular Information confirmed that the address for this donation matches the address for Crooks' voter registration, so it appears to be the same person. The Progressive Turnout Project says Crooks unsubscribed from its email list two years ago. 

We may learn more about Crooks' motivation as authorities continue their investigation.  Perhaps he was motivated by politics. But it also might have nothing to do with it. John Hinckley Jr. attempted to assassinate President Ronald Reagan in 1981 in an effort to impress actor Jodi Foster. As of now, we know very little. Federal investigators told NBC News that "they’ve seen no indication as to what the motive of the attempted assassin."

Jumping to premature conclusions can only inflame an already volatile political environment. While many prominent figures on both sides of the aisle responded appropriately, others sought to exploit the assassination attempt based on unproven assumptions.

Blaming legitimate criticism of Donald Trump

Senator J.D. Vance (R-OH), one of the finalists to be Trump's pick for Vice President, said the Biden campaign was responsible. "The central premise of the Biden campaign is that President Donald Trump is an authoritarian fascist who must be stopped at all costs," Vance said. "That rhetoric led directly to President Trump's attempted assassination." 

Asserting that your opponent must be stopped is standard political rhetoric. Trump does this more aggressively than most. On July 1, Trump told Lou Dobbs that unless he wins in November, "we're not going to have much of a country left anymore," adding, "we may not have another election again." In March, Trump warned that if he loses, "[i]t’s going to be a bloodbath for the country." His campaign later claimed he was referring to "an economic bloodbath for the auto industry and autoworkers."

Senator Tim Scott (R-SC), a top Trump surrogate and potential running mate, struck a similar tone.  “For years, Democrats and their allies in the media have recklessly stoked fears, calling President Trump and other conservatives threats to democracy,” Scott posted on X. “Their inflammatory rhetoric puts lives at risk.”

Trump, of course, attempted to overturn the legitimate results of the 2020 election, eventually inciting a violent attack on the United States Capitol. Years later, Trump and many of his supporters still claim the election was "stolen." Describing Trump as a threat to the democratic process is not stoking "fears." It is a fact. 

Many other Republicans have echoed Vance and Scott, citing a comment Biden made last week in a private call with donors that was leaked to the press. "I have one job, and that’s to beat Donald Trump," Biden said. "I’m absolutely certain I’m the best person to be able to do that. So, we’re done talking about the debate. It’s time to put Trump in a bullseye." 

Congressman Mike Collins (R-GA) said Biden "sent the orders" to assassinate Trump. 

Later, Collins said Biden should be prosecuted for "inciting an assassination." Senator Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) and Congresswoman Lauren Boebert (R-CO) also pointed the finger at Biden, citing his remarks to donors.

Senator Mike Lee (R-UT) urged Biden to "take the political temperature down" by ordering "all federal criminal charges against President Trump be dropped, and to ask the governors of New York and Georgia to do the same." 

All of this was said hours after the shooting, without any evidence that the attack was motivated by politics. It does not represent a serious effort to grapple with the significance of the attack. Rather, it is a political tactic designed to discredit Trump from legitimate criticism for the remainder of the campaign. 

Embracing conspiracy theories

The right did not have a monopoly on irresponsible commentary in the wake of the attempted assassination of Trump. Dmitri Mehlhorn, a top advisor to Democratic mega-donor Reid Hoffman, sent an email to journalists a few hours after the shooting. Mehlhorn said it was possible that the "‘shooting’ was encouraged and maybe even staged so Trump could get the photos and benefit from the backlash." He also floated the possibility that "Trump officials encouraged or knew of this attack." There is absolutely no evidence to support any of these claims. On Sunday, Mehlhorn apologized for the email and said he had written it without Hoffman's involvement. 

Billionaire Elon Musk, who formally endorsed Trump in the aftermath of the attack, baselessly suggested on X that the assassination was the result of a "deliberate" effort by the Secret Service to get Trump killed. Congressmen Mike Waltz (R-FL) and Ronnie Jackson (R-TX) pushed unsubstantiated rumors that Trump was denied additional Secret Service protection by Biden administration officials. According to the Secret Service, this is false. 

In the wake of a frightening attack that has already left at least one victim dead, people are eager for answers. That is why conspiracy theories and rumors quickly gain traction. People seeking attention and clout can easily take advantage of this environment. 

But it is important to resist the urge for quick and comforting explanations — and stick to the facts.