Punctuated Equilibrium in AI : Is it Better to Be A First Mover or A Last Mover?
Tomasz TunguzVenture Capitalist If you were forwarded this newsletter, and you'd like to receive it in the future, subscribe here. Punctuated Equilibrium in AI : Is it Better to Be A First Mover or A Last Mover?
Machine learning advances tend to evolve in bursts. Researchers publish a new paper with a newly discovered technique. It launches the industry forward & more researchers rapidly iterate to improve it further. Progress looks like this - a series of S curves one after another. No one knows the time period between the rapid progress or the slope of the curves or how much progress we’ll make during one of these curves. In the last few years, since the release of Attention is All You Need Paper, AI has boomed. The rapid pace of iteration has led to the release of model after model. A collection of human evaluators marks our progress using a score called Elo collected by LMSyS, modeled after chess grandmaster rankings. If we plot Elo by Rank, we see an S-curve. And if you look very closely at the upper right, which indicates the performance of the most recent models : GPT-4o, Claude 3.5 Sonnet, Gemini Pro, & Llama 3 - if you squint, perhaps you can imagine another elbow, another rapid advance of progress in performance. OpenAI categorizes levels of AI similarly to self-driving cars. The five levels are
OpenAI has also said it’s close to moving from Level 1 to Level 2. What if that little orange elbow is the beginning of reasoning in AI? In some software categories, first mover advantage exists. In search, last mover advantage (Google) won because they benefitted from the learnings of all who came before. AI is characterized by waves of innovation & sudden change, a tecnological punctuated equilibrium. Will the winners in this era be those who started early before the rapid advance or those who waited until afterwards? |
Older messages
AI Agent Pricing
Friday, July 12, 2024
Tomasz Tunguz Venture Capitalist If you were forwarded this newsletter, and you'd like to receive it in the future, subscribe here. AI Agent Pricing In a world where AI agents are 2.5-3x as
AI Pricing Strategies for SaaS Companies Offering Copilots
Thursday, July 11, 2024
Tomasz Tunguz Venture Capitalist If you were forwarded this newsletter, and you'd like to receive it in the future, subscribe here. AI Pricing Strategies for SaaS Companies Offering Copilots
Select avg(Moby Dick) limit 2 sentences
Monday, July 8, 2024
Tomasz Tunguz Venture Capitalist If you were forwarded this newsletter, and you'd like to receive it in the future, subscribe here. Select avg(Moby Dick) limit 2 sentences The SQL statement
The First of Your Newsletters
Tuesday, July 2, 2024
Tomasz Tunguz Venture Capitalist If you were forwarded this newsletter, and you'd like to receive it in the future, subscribe here. The First of Your Newsletters “This is the first of your
The Four Barriers to AI Adoption
Friday, June 28, 2024
Tomasz Tunguz Venture Capitalist If you were forwarded this newsletter, and you'd like to receive it in the future, subscribe here. The Four Barriers to AI Adoption AI adoption is slower than
You Might Also Like
The Sunken After and The Golden Surge 🪸
Tuesday, October 8, 2024
Plus we ain't no fools͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
POV: you're a solopreneur living in Florida
Tuesday, October 8, 2024
Read time: 1 min. 03 sec. Guys—Hurricane Milton is heading straight for my house. 😬 First off, this is serious. I hope everyone in the impact zone stays safe. 🙏 But you know me—I'm always looking
How M&A Fosters Innovation
Tuesday, October 8, 2024
Tomasz Tunguz Venture Capitalist If you were forwarded this newsletter, and you'd like to receive it in the future, subscribe here. How M&A Fosters Innovation Recently, Thomas Laffont of
[CEI] Chrome Extension Ideas #161
Tuesday, October 8, 2024
ideas for Amazon, Music, Stress, and Content Creators ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
What if you could edit like Spielberg? 🎥
Tuesday, October 8, 2024
Meet Eddie AI—your new editing partner ready to bring cinematic flair to every cut! ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
Whoa. Stunning multiple
Tuesday, October 8, 2024
Plus, LOI mistakes + when to get a lawyer ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
this is today
Tuesday, October 8, 2024
join me for a live run through of the state of venture – and what to expect next Hi there, Benjamin here, Senior Lead Analyst at CB Insights. Wanted to personally invite you to this State of Venture
Growth Newsletter #215
Tuesday, October 8, 2024
It's not all about the CPM and CPC ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
Why cash is king
Tuesday, October 8, 2024
The first set of results from our inaugural compensation survey reveals the need for stable income above all else ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
🚨 Brutal statistic
Tuesday, October 8, 2024
All because of lack of validation Hi Friend , It's a brutal statistic: 90% of ecommerce businesses don't make it past the first few months. If you're anything like the ambitious founders we