Bloomberg - Evening Briefing - Summer correction

The S&P 500 Index has nowhere to go but down. So says Goldman Sachs tactical strategist Scott Rubner, who cautions “I am not buying the dip.” That’s because today has historically marked a turning point for returns on the equities benchmark, the Goldman global markets division managing director said, citing data going back to 1928. And what follows, of course, is August—typically the worst month for outflows from passive equity and mutual funds. Weak seasonality, stretched positioning and with all the good news already priced in, the index is on the precipice of a summer correction. It’s a view Goldman’s trading desk has been leaning into since at least early June. —David E. Rovella

HSBC named Georges Elhedery its next chief executive, continuing the lender’s tradition of picking insiders to run the bank. Elhedery will replace Noel Quinn, who in April announced his surprise decision to retire after a more than three-decade career, including five years as CEO. The 50-year-old Elhedery takes the role less than two years after his promotion to chief financial officer. Before that, the Lebanon-born, French-educated banker had a six-month sabbatical that included spending some of his time learning Mandarin. The HSBC CEO role is one of the biggest seats in global finance, given the worldwide span of the bank’s business, which incorporates hubs in the UK and Hong Kong, as well as major operations in several other countries including the US, China and Saudi Arabia.

Georges Elhedery Source: HSBC Holdings Plc

A former Goldman Sachs associate will spend 28 months behind bars after admitting to passing inside tips to friends while working at the investment bank and Blackstone. Anthony Viggiano, 27, pleaded guilty to a single count of securities fraud in January for tipping off two friends to at least seven transactions that he learned about while working at the two Wall Street firms. The tips led to more than $400,000 in illegal profits for Stephen Forlano, a college buddy, and Christopher Salamone, Viggiano’s stepbrother, both of whom have also pleaded guilty. 

Natural gas traders are giving up on the idea that a sweltering summer will boost demand for the power-plant fuel and curb a massive US supply glut. The spread between October and January gas futures—essentially a bet on how tight stockpiles will be heading into the northern hemisphere’s winter—has collapsed in recent weeks. By the end of October, inventories stored underground in depleted reservoirs, aquifers and salt caverns are expected to reach the highest since at least 2016.

At least once a month—and sometimes as often as three times a week—a private plane lands in a secure part of Robert Gabriel Mugabe International Airport on the outskirts of the Zimbabwean capital, Harare, carrying millions of US dollars. The pallets of cash are unloaded, broken down into packages and then distributed to transfer points across the country. This unusual but legal operation, organized by the country’s biggest mobile money app, Mukuru, illustrates how far companies will go to accommodate customers seeking to avoid the local currency in one of the world’s most dysfunctional economies.

Zimbabwe Central Bank Governor John Mushayavanhu, left, during a news conference to present the new ZiG currency, in Harare, on April 5. Photographer: Cynthia R Matonhodze/Bloomberg

It’s not just Americans who can’t afford US homes. International purchases hit a record low as foreign buyers balked at the dollar’s strength and a dearth of available US properties. Non-US citizens bought 54,300 previously owned homes in the country in the 12 months through March, a 36% decline from the same period a year before. Purchases are constrained in part by the same inventory shortage that’s stymied domestic house hunters in recent years. Owners clinging to pandemic-era cheap mortgages are keeping thousands of potential listings off the market, and that’s driving up prices for properties that are available.

While speakers at the Republican National Convention this week have sought to blame President Joe Biden for lingering inflation, the policies drawn up by Donald Trump’s team—tax cuts (for the wealthy Biden contends), tariff increases and a crackdown on immigration (despite Trump having helped kill a bipartisan bill)—would, in the view of many economists and investors, spike inflation. As the Federal Reserve prepares rate cuts to seal a soft landing for the robust American economy, a potential shift in policies should Trump win looms as a risk for sustained cuts in 2025. “On their face, the stated policies would bring at minimum a significant burst of inflation,” said Julia Coronado, the founder of MacroPolicy Perspectives and a former Fed economist. Meanwhile, Biden has rolled out a series of policy proposals in recent days—many of which would be long shots in an evenly split Congress—that could be seen as trying to shore up support in the Democratic Party’s progressive wing. But in the face of weeks of media handwringing over the 81-year-old’s botched debate performance against his 78-year-old rival, two-thirds of Democratic voters now tell the Associated Press Biden should make way for someone else.

Once the ultimate darling of a climate-conscious left and progressive, starry-eyed space nerds, Elon Musk has alienated many of his early fans (and hurt Tesla in the process) by veering to the far-right. From cryptic social media posts on conservative red meat issues and later endorsements of racist and anti-semitic tweets, the native South African has now apparently completed his multi-year transformation. He has formally endorsed Trump for president and is using the full force of his embattled X platform to amplify his support. He’s even donating $45 million a month to a pro-Trump super PAC, tapping his vast fortune to put the Republican back in the White House.

Elon Musk talks with Donald Trump in 2020 at Cape Canaveral, Florida Photographer: Alex Brandon/AP

• California’s Schiff joins some Biden donors urging him to step aside.
• The full Bloomberg Donald Trump interview—fact checked.
• Bloomberg Originals: Why the “banker to the poor” faces prison.
• Canada’s immigration minister has a message for foreign students.
• UK’s Labour to press ahead with tax hike on private-school fees.
• Why Taylor Swift may have killed an August rate cut.
• You know that saying about money and happiness? It’s wrong.

For three years the No. 1 bar in Asia stayed exactly the same. It was Coa in Hong Kong. Now, a brand new place has has grabbed the top spot: Bar Leone. The Italian-vibed, relaxed spot, also in Hong Kong, offers drinks like an Olive Oil Sour, Yuzu Gimlets and perfect Negronis, both classic and adventurous versions, made by veteran bartender Lorenzo Antinori. And the bar just made history, being the first brand-new entry to be No. 1.

The best place to drink in Asia is in Hong Kong Source: Bar Leone

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