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The US spoils the ASML party, small-caps get a win, and headlong into the eye of the storm |
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Today's big stories

  1. ASML delivered some whoop-whoop results, but the threat of a US trade crackdown brought the mood way down
  2. Here's why where a firm makes its money is just as important as how it makes its money – Read Now
  3. The Russell 2000 index notched its best five-day streak since 2020, with smaller stocks gaining big

A Mixed Hand

A Mixed Hand

What’s going on here?

ASML reported solid profits, but geopolitical tensions threaten to cloud the firm’s outlook.

What does this mean?

Netherlands-based ASML – Europe’s most valuable tech company – raked in €1.6 billion ($1.7 billion) in the second quarter, comfortably above analyst forecasts. And more importantly, the firm’s order numbers, which give an inkling of future profit, blasted surprisingly higher – to $6.1 billion, up from $3.9 billion the same period a year ago. But ASML, which sells some of the most advanced chipmaking machines in the world, is nonetheless keeping itself grounded: the company left its humble outlook for the full year unchanged.

Why should I care?

Zooming out: Choppy waters.

The AI boom and the breakneck expansion of data centers are keeping semiconductor firms like ASML in the money. But it’s not all smooth sailing (it never is). The US is now threatening to slap its harshest trade restrictions on companies supplying advanced chip equipment to China. The so-called “foreign direct product rule” would apply to any foreign-made products sold in China that include American tech. That’s a problem for the likes of ASML and Tokyo Electron, with China making up roughly 26% and 20% of their respective sales. So the news sent both companies’ share prices tumbling on Wednesday.

The bigger picture: Spoiling the party.

Regulations just might be a dead weight on the chip industry’s meteoric rise. Export rules that went into effect early this year have already slashed a hole in the pockets of American companies, with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York estimating a $130 billion hit to their combined market value. And if these new restrictions are approved, it’ll make that hole even wider. No wonder, then, that firms are urging policymakers not to take that next step, warning that global businesses might simply strip US products from their supply chains to dodge the new mandate.

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Analyst Take

Morgan Stanley Wants You To Understand Where Firms Really Make Their Money

Morgan Stanley Wants You To Understand Where Firms Really Make Their Money
Photo of Stéphane Renevier, CFA

Stéphane Renevier, CFA, Analyst

Knowing how a company makes its money is key – but knowing where can be just as important.

After all, when you snap up shares in, say, a European firm, you get more than just a slice of the local scene.

And that’s because while Paris or Berlin might be the home base, the real action could spread from New York to Shanghai.

Now, untangling the global sales streams can be tricky business. But, fortunately, Morgan Stanley has laid out the big trends for you.

That’s today’s Insight: a global look at where firms really make their money.

Read or listen to the Insight here

Your free guide to investing with AI

Artificial intelligence is slowly but surely becoming ingrained into our lives.

Condensing articles, checking out medical symptoms, writing tricky break-up texts: we’ve all been flocking to chatbots without a second thought, for better or for worse.

So it’s no surprise that AI investing tools have taken off in a big way. After all, they can tap into the insights of every resource imaginable to create tailor-made suggestions and solutions.

The only problem: AI can go rogue, and it doesn’t always understand the nuances of human thinking and communication. (Yet.)

So before you use the super-smart tech to sharpen up your strategy, read this free guide to find out how to invest with AI the right way.

Check Out The Guide

Small But Mighty

Small But Mighty

What’s going on here?

A stock index of smaller companies just notched its best five-day streak since 2020, with David coming up trumps over Goliath for the first time in a while.

What does this mean?

Until last week, US small-cap stocks – companies with a market value between $300 million and $2 billion – had been essentially flat all year. But that changed when an inflation report showed US consumer prices rising a lot less than expected in June. The news had traders betting that the Federal Reserve will move to lower its economy-dragging interest rates a tad earlier this year, and that kick-started a good ole rally in the small-cap department. See, slighter firms often carry some heavy short-term or variable-rate debt, so they get hit harder when borrowing costs go up – but they also get a bigger boost when those costs go down. And that’s why the Russell 2000 index, which houses these stocks, shot up by almost 12% in the past week.

Why should I care?

Zooming in: Slow train coming.

The inflation report was the fuel that ignited the rally, sure, but the scene was set a while back. In the US, small-cap stocks have been underperforming their more sizable siblings since 2014. That’s left them trading cheap – really cheap. And that’s not just in comparison to big-cap shares, but also relative to their own history. So, naturally, they’ve become prime targets for bargain-hunting investors looking for a bit of risky business.

The bigger picture: The race is on.

Those investors rushing into small-cap stocks might find they’re onto a winner later this year. The bigger kids have been out in front recently, but it’s the smaller fries that appear poised to take the earnings growth lead. Analysts see them raking in 27% more profit this quarter compared to a year ago – and 67% next quarter. That’s significantly faster growth than what the weightier firms are expected to see.

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💬 Quote of the day

"Blessed are the hearts that can bend; they shall never be broken."

– Albert Camus (a French philosopher)
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