A good negotiator will tell you that you've got to be willing to walk off the lot. If you're buying a car, at some point, you've got to make it clear to the seller that you're willing to walk away and find a better price. It turns out that American consumers have been walking off the lot. A lot. The result? Big retailers—who just maybe took advantage of an inflationary period by raising prices much more than they had to—are telling consumers to turn around and come back to the lot, because they can offer a better deal. Americans’ refusal to keep paying higher prices may be dealing a final blow to US inflation spike. "Consumers aren’t cutting back enough to cause an economic downturn. Rather, economists say, they appear to be returning to pre-pandemic norms, when most companies felt they couldn’t raise prices very much without losing business. 'While inflation is down, prices are still high, and I think consumers have gotten to the point where they’re just not accepting it,' Tom Barkin, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, said last week at a conference of business economists. 'And that’s what you want: The solution to high prices is high prices.'"

2

This Round's On Me

"The researchers found no reduction in heart disease deaths among light or moderate drinkers, regardless of this health or socioeconomic status, when compared with occasional drinkers." It's good for you, it's bad for you, it's great for you in moderation, no avoid it altogether. The ever-changing alcohol and health guidelines are enough to drive one to drink. NYT (Gift Article): Older Adults Do Not Benefit From Moderate Drinking, Large Study Finds. (I'm pretty sure no one in my mom's Mimosa Sunday brunch group is in it for the health benefits...)

3

Ante Depressant

Longtime readers of this newsletter will note that I've been worried that increasingly easy access to online betting (and the constant marketing messages suggesting you lay a bet) will have a detrimental impact on society, especially young men. Here's some early data: "In states with legal gambling of any kind, average credit scores drop by 0.3% after four years. However, in states where online betting is available, average credit scores drop by 1%. Among states with access to online betting, the likelihood of filing for bankruptcy increases by 25-30% after three to four years. Collections on unpaid debts increase by about 8% in states with online betting. Young men in low-income counties experience higher financial distress, with higher rates of bankruptcy, more usage of consolidation and unsecured loans, and more credit card delinquencies." Sounds like a bad bet. Online sports betting hurts consumers.

4

X Lax

The much-hyped ego-stroking session between Elon Musk and Donald Trump on X got off to rough start as technical difficulties delayed the proceedings. Musk claimed there was a DDOS attack on X — but The Verge was told there was not. Of course, with these two in conversation, it makes sense to start off with a falsehood to get the crowd warmed up. I'm guessing the technical difficulties were due to something system administrators refer to as Narcissistic Server Overload.

+ "In eschewing the adversarial interview, Musk and Trump may have re-created the kind of behind-closed-doors conversation that is all too common among certain types of billionaires and other elites. What is remarkable about these conversations isn’t the subject matter itself, but how vapid, predictable, and sycophantic the back-and-forth becomes." The Atlantic (Gift Article): Elon Musk Throws a Trump Rally. (There's no point to Trump's Twitter clone now that Elon Musk has turned X into a Truth Social clone.)

+ I've heard many smart people discuss the Climate Change-driven need for nuclear power and the usefulness of rebranding it. I've never heard a smart person (or anyone else) tout the use of nuclear power by arguing that the WWII bombing of Japan wasn't all that bad. Musk: "Hiroshima and Nagasaki were bombed but now they are full cities again." Trump: "That's great, that's great." Musk: "It is not as scary as people think, basically." (Can a conversation be radioactive?)

+ David Frum: The Trump Campaign’s ‘Please Shut Up’ Phase. "Meandering, solipsistic, and crushingly boring—the interview was an awful premonition of the rest of Trump’s life should he lose again, in November: wandering the corridors of his clubs, going from table to table, buttonholing the dwindling number of guests, monologuing relentlessly until they squirm away." (I still can't believe everyone didn't squirm away in 2015.)

5

Extra, Extra

Let's Do it at Your Place: "Last week, Ukraine tried something new. Its own forces marched miles across the Russian border in a surprise operation. They now control some Russian land in the region of Kursk, including dozens of towns and villages." Ukraine’s Surprise Attack. Politico: Putin pulls units out of Ukraine to defend Russia.

+ Middle East on Edge: Reuters: "Only a ceasefire deal in Gaza stemming from hoped-for talks this week would hold Iran back from direct retaliation against Israel for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on its soil, three senior Iranian officials said." (This standoff would be remarkably intriguing if we didn't have so much at stake.)

+ Ballot Boxing: Probably the biggest election news of the day: Arizona certifies abortion access measure for the November ballot. (When choice is on the ballot, it usually wins. And it draws in a lot of non-MAGA voters.)

+ The Bucks Stops Here: "The Starbucks CEO revolving door keeps spinning as the company struggles with sinking sales." Starbucks’ CEO is out. Chipotle’s Brian Niccol is taking over. (So your Venti might soon seem a little less grande...)

+ Getting the Bandage Back Together: "Researchers have developed an inexpensive bandage that uses an electric field to promote healing in chronic wounds." Electric Bandages Could Heal Wounds Faster.

+ The Rent Is Not Too Damn High: San Franciso's downtown was hit extremely hard during the pandemic and parts of it haven't really come back to life. The city is trying to lure businesses back with quite an offer. NYT (Gift Article): Can Free Rent Revive Downtown San Francisco?

6

Bottom of the News

"They are some of the many young people who are embracing phillumeny—the hobby of collecting matchbooks, matchboxes and other match-related items—and displaying their collections at home and online. It’s a resurgence of an interest which harks back to a time when matches were ubiquitous as smoking and advertising tools." WSJ (Gift Article): We’re In a Matchbook Renaissance.

+ "Trump, enroute on his own private plane to a campaign event in Bozeman, Montana last week, unexpectedly landed in Billings because of mechanical problems, a campaign spokeswoman said. He and part of his staff then flew on a small charter to Bozeman for a rally Friday night. The next day, he switched to another larger Gulfstream." But this was no ordinary Gulfstream. Why Trump flew to campaign events on Jeffrey Epstein’s plane last weekend. (For familiarity's sake?)