Are Interest Rate Cuts Going To Happen In September?
To investors, All eyes in financial markets are on the September interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve. Investors have been convinced interest rate cuts were right around the corner at various times throughout the year, but recent economic data has finally driven consensus agreement for September. Kalshi, a leading prediction market for economic data, shows an 88% chance that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points in approximately one month. But here is the thing — no one actually knows what is going to happen. It is impossible to predict the future, especially when Fed Chairman Powell is unlikely to know what he is going to do yet too. The current data suggests the Fed should already be cutting interest rates. It would only take one or two economic reports full of bad data to change that outlook though. When Powell gives his speech this week from Jackson Hole, I would not expect him to commit to any specific decision. It is true that the Fed likes to signal their future moves and decrease the surprise to market participants. But there is too much time, and enough opportunity for economic data to change, that Powell is more likely going to suggest that we are getting closer to an interest rate cut without confirming the September timeline. Regardless of what Powell says this week, stock market investors are positioning themselves to benefit when cheaper money starts flooding into the market. Bloomberg’s Jess Menton points out that over $3 trillion has been added to the S&P 500 since the August market low. Menton goes on to point out an interesting data point related to the annual Jackson Hole meeting in relation to stock volatility:
Jerome Powell is not the only thing to pay attention to this week. Reports are coming out that economic data revisions are inbound, which will put the existing situation in a less ideal position.
We won’t know if these revisions actually happen for a few days. This is just a rumor at the moment, but it would follow the trend of California making major revisions a few weeks ago which wiped out all job growth in the state for 2023. So here is the situation — we have increasing odds that the economy is not as strong as everyone thinks it is. Investors are salivating over an interest rate cut. And we have plenty of room to cut rates without ending up with 0% rates again. Based on what we know now, the rate cut will happen in September. It will be 25 basis points, stocks will start to rise into the end of the year, and both political parties will complain about monetary policy changing so close to the election. Plenty can change between now and September 18th though. For example, the Trump assassination attempt was only five weeks ago. That feels like a lifetime away. Let’s see what happens in the next four weeks. Hope you all have a great start to your week. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow. -Anthony Pompliano Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management Phil Rosen, the Co-Founder of Opening Bell Daily, and Anthony Pompliano, CEO of Professional Capital Management, discuss the economy, inflation, volatility in the stock market, and future outlook for financial assets. Listen on iTunes: Click here Listen on Spotify: Click here Anthony Pompliano Explains Why Price Controls Are A Bad IdeaPodcast Sponsors
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research. You're currently a free subscriber to The Pomp Letter. For the full experience, upgrade your subscription. |
Older messages
Volatility! You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet
Tuesday, August 13, 2024
Listen now (2 mins) | To investors, ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
Bitcoin Defends Purchasing Power In Breathtaking Way
Monday, August 12, 2024
Listen now (3 mins) | Today's letter is brought to you by Domain Money! ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
Bitcoin Critics Are Grasping At Straws
Wednesday, August 7, 2024
Listen now (4 mins) | READER NOTE: Next Tuesday I am hosting a free webinar for anyone who is trying to transition into a new job in the bitcoin and crypto industry. ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
Podcast app setup
Tuesday, August 6, 2024
Open this on your phone and click the button below: Add to podcast app
Are We In A Recession and Should You Be Worried?
Monday, August 5, 2024
Listen now (5 mins) | Today's letter is brought to you by Domain Money! ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
You Might Also Like
🔍 How To Build An Organic Content Flywheel
Friday, September 20, 2024
September 19, 2024 | Read Online All Case Studies 🔍 Learn About Sponsorships Nearly every brand makes this mistake: their organic content team operates in a silo. Huge mistake. Organic is the testing
Your Invite To BUILD Summit 2024
Thursday, September 19, 2024
Hey everyone, ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
GPT o1 vs. 4o 🥊, Accelerator List 🚀, AI Coming To Your Ads 🤖, and Game-Changing AI Guides 🧭
Thursday, September 19, 2024
Plus: CRO Hacks 📋, B2B Gems 💎, UX Mockup Tutorial Using AI 🎨, Elevator Pitch Tips 🎤, and more!
FREE AI training for marketers…
Thursday, September 19, 2024
Hi Reader, Do you know you need to do more with AI? If so, I've got some high-quality video training for you. It's designed by me. And for a limited time, it's free. GET ACCESS TODAY I can
Exciting announcement
Thursday, September 19, 2024
I've got an announcement just for you: Our master class series last year had a 99% satisfaction rate. Several people have emailed me asking for a repeat of the experience this year... So, we're
📣 Now open: free registration for Litmus Live, SEO for email, and more
Thursday, September 19, 2024
The latest email resources from the Litmus blog and a few of our favorite things from around the web last week. ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
Discover the new Digiday Streaming and Video Awards categories
Thursday, September 19, 2024
Showcase how your company is modernizing streaming and video
Fed Begins Easing Cycle with Jumbo 50bps Rate Cut
Thursday, September 19, 2024
Plus House Committee Questions SEC's Crypto Strategy in Divisive Hearing
[Webinar] 👀 Unlock lululemon’s winning social media formula
Thursday, September 19, 2024
Join us for an exclusive peek on October 1! ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
🦄 The GTM coach for 12 unicorns
Thursday, September 19, 2024
An interview with Scott Leese, Founder and CEO of Scott Leese Consulting. 🤝