Since Kamala Harris took over as nominee, the tone, tenor, and tempo of the campaign are radically different. Everything feels better, more exciting, and much more hopeful.

The sudden shift was a bit disorienting. I know I scrutinize polling more than the average (healthy?) person, but even regular folks paid attention last month. I get it. For almost a year, every poll felt like an obituary. Now, even the online poll-truthers herald the polls as if they are etched in stone and delivered from the mount. There are so many polls coming out every day — some are high-quality polls from reputable pollsters; many are not.

Are Kamala Harris and Tim Walz running away with this optimism? Are we back to a dangerously close margin like in 2016 and 2020? Is this irrational exuberance, a sugar high, or evidence of a fundamental shift in the electoral picture mirroring Barack Obama’s rise in 2008?

According to the New York Times polling average, Harris is up about a point nationally. This is a huge shift:

It's good news, but it only tells us so much. The national polls are interesting but particularly instructive given the Electoral College. What matters is the map and how Harris gets to 270 electoral votes. Over the weekend, I received a lot of questions about the map during my latest subscriber Q&A. In response, here’s a deep dive into the Electoral Map as we head into the Democratic Convention in Chicago.

1. The Blue Wall Path

Just to level set, here’s what I wrote on Sunday about the state of play before Biden stepped aside:

Three weeks ago, Nevada, Georgia, and Arizona were unlikely to be competitive. Trump was up or tied in the previously safe states of New Mexico, Virginia, and Minnesota.

Trump had multiple paths to 270, and Biden had one — and you had to squint pretty hard to see it. His only plausible path to 270 involved sweeping the Blue Wall states and the second Congressional district of Nebraska, and according to private and public polling, he was trailing in all of those places.

One thing hasn’t changed. Biden needed to win the Blue Wall states. This is also Harris’s best path. With the very notable exception of 2016, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin skewed Democratic in every election since 1988 (which is why they are known as the Blue Wall). Democrats did very well in 2022, and all three have popular Democratic governors with robust political organizations. These are states where Harris is polling best. Per the New York Times average, Harris is up two in Michigan and Wisconsin and up about a point in Pennsylvania.

Winning those three states and the 2nd district of Nebraska will get Harris exactly 270 electoral votes...