A woman entering the DC Metro wearing a mask in May. 
Rosem Morton for the Washington Post via Getty Images

We’re presently in what appears to be the worst Covid-19 summer surge in several years, especially in the southern US. According to data from the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), all of the metrics related to Covid-19 that we should be worried about are going up — not just cases, but hospitalizations and deaths, too.

Even if we’re no longer in the depths of the pandemic, and we have treatments to lessen its severity and vaccines for protection, contracting Covid-19 carries risks. That’s particularly true for people over 65, people with comorbidities like heart or lung disease, or those who are immunocompromised. And the lingering health challenges of long Covid remain a risk. 

The good news is that on the whole, Americans are much better protected than we once were against serious illness, because most people have been infected, vaccinated, or both. However, it’s still important to take precautions as Covid-19 cases increase in most states across the US.  

Here’s what we know so far about the surge this year, and what you can do to keep yourself and your community healthy.

The Centers for Disease Control has found that cases are increasing or likely increasing in 32 states. This follows a seasonal pattern that’s begun to emerge with Covid. We saw a similar surge last summer, though according to CDC data, cases are exceeding levels from around this time last year. 

“It's not just last summer — even when we were having the pandemic, if you look at the graphs, infection was always very high during the summer and also during the winter,” said Kizzmekia Corbett-Helaire, assistant professor of immunology and infectious diseases at Harvard’s School of Public Health.

We don’t know exactly why the summer surge happens, Corbett-Helaire said. Some of it could be due to the underlying characteristics of the virus, and some due to human behavior, like increased travel.

At the moment, Covid hospitalizations and deaths are rising but still relatively low — the latest data shows that 1.5 percent of deaths in the US are the result of Covid, and 2.3 percent of emergency room visits during the week ending August 3 were diagnosed as Covid-19. 

CDC data comes from a variety of sources. But one important source for tracking transmission rates is wastewater testing, which involves tracking the amount of virus in local sewage.

Early in the pandemic, before at-home testing was accessible, data from clinical testing was used to track infection rates. Now, however, fewer Americans are testing and reporting their status, making test-based tracking unreliable.

That makes wastewater testing the best available metric for getting a timely picture of the presence of illness in a community, according to Amesh Adalja, senior scholar at Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. “It’s kind of becoming the way of the future” and is being used to test for the presence of other illnesses, including mpox, he told Vox.

And the wastewater says the US is in the midst of a surge approaching infection levels not seen since last winter, which was the worst increase since 2022.

There’s no one variant of the virus that’s dominant right now — there’s a group of variants referred to as FLiRT, which come from the JN.1 variant. The name FLiRT refers to the technical names for where the mutations that created this variant occurred; in this case, on the spike protein on the virus, which helps it connect to a cell and infect it. 

LB.1, which has many similarities with the FLiRT variants, but has one additional mutation, is also circulating. LB.1 may be more transmissible than other dominant variants, but experts don’t know that for sure. And, as a CDC spokesperson told Vox, “there are no data at this time indicating that this variant causes more severe COVID-19.” The symptoms, the spokesperson said, are similar to that of other variants.  

In terms of transmission, not much has changed, either — you can still get these strains of Covid from an infected person if you’re in close quarters with them, especially indoors in a crowded or poorly ventilated space. Masking and vaccination remain the best ways to prevent transmission. 

Olympian Noah Lyles couldn't even avoid Covid-19. He competed after a positive test. 
Patrick Smith/Getty Images Sport

FLiRT is no different from other variants when it comes to contagion — you are definitely contagious as long as you are testing positive on an at-home test.  

You might be contagious one to two days before you have symptoms, though, and that’s when you tend to be most likely to infect others.

Covid-positive people should isolate until at least 24 hours after their symptoms are improving and they no longer have a fever, according to the latest CDC guidance (which applies to the flu and RSV as well). 

Boosters can help prevent the spread of Covid, but current boosters are unlikely to be as effective against the latest variants. Current boosters were formulated to be effective against pre-JN.1 omicron variants, and the lastest mutations hadn’t happened yet when the inoculations now available were released.  

The good news is a new formulation that targets the FLiRT variants should be available soon, in preparation for a likely winter surge. 

As for exactly how protective the new vaccine will be against infection, that’s impossible to know: “The last two updates have missed targets in terms of preventing infections, but we know they protect against serious disease and death,” Adalja said. 

Amid the surge, perhaps the most important thing to keep in mind is that Covid “is always going to be a threat,” Adalja said. “It’s an endemic respiratory illness that is part of the human condition.” 

This summer’s surge is making that very clear.

—Ellen Ioanes, world and weekend reporter

CDC/Image Point FR/BSIP/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

Jeff Spicer/Getty Images for Sony Pictures

Pre-DNC drama: President Joe Biden is feeling snubbed by his colleagues. According to leaks from people close to him, he’s frustrated that fellow Democratic leaders Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, and his close friend former President Barack Obama didn’t come to him directly about their concerns after his poor debate performance in late June. Let’s hope these tensions have cooled by the convention next week, especially because Biden is scheduled to appear. [Politico]

Who else is turning up at the convention? The rumor mill is holding out for Beyoncé or Taylor Swift, but nothing has been confirmed by their camps yet. For now, celebs like John Legend, Lil Jon, and some cast members from RuPaul’s Drag Race are confirmed to be in attendance in Chicago next week. [The New York Times]

Chris Sweda/Chicago Tribune/Tribune News Service via Getty Images

Not super interested in It Ends With Us or Deadpool & Wolverine? Senior editorial director Julia Rubin and senior audience strategy editor Shira Tarlo both suggest  seeing Dìdi in theaters. Directed by Sean Wang and inspired by his childhood, the coming-of-age film is a beautiful picture of the summer of 2008, set in the Bay Area.

“This summer, I've found myself seeking out smaller films (and movie theater AC in sweltering Brooklyn, of course),” says Rubin. “I loved Dìdi, set in the same decade I too came of age AIMing my crushes and listening to Motion City Soundtrack. It’s sweet and nostalgic and does not make me want to be 14 again, though … does it?” 

“One of the strangest things about getting older is seeing your coming-of-age reflected in film. For me, Dìdi felt like the first of its kind,” added Tarlo.

The cast of Dìdi at a screening in San Francisco in April. 
Miikka Skaffari/Getty Images

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Today’s edition was produced and edited by senior editor Lavanya Ramanathan, with contributions from staff editor Melinda Fakuade. We'll see you tomorrow!

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