Morning Brew - ☕️NYC exodus

Auto plants reopen, but face a challenging road ahead...
May 18, 2020

Daily Brew

Alaskan King Crab

Good morning and welcome back to the week. For the first time in 20 years, AAA will not issue a Memorial Day travel forecast, which is sad to think about...but honestly, we haven't seen a brake light since March. 

MARKETS YTD PERFORMANCE

NASDAQ

9,014.56

+ 0.47%

S&P

2,863.70

- 11.36%

DJIA

23,685.42

- 17.01%

GOLD

1,754.10

+ 15.40%

10-YR

0.646%

- 127.40 bps

OIL

29.71

- 51.46%

*As of market close

  • Economy: When asked by 60 Minutes how long the economy will take to recover, Fed Chair Jerome Powell confirmed what we're all thinking: “We really don’t know.” He expects steady economic growth in the second half of the year barring no second wave of the virus, but warned getting back to full-strength will likely require a vaccine. 
  • International: Japan, the world's third-largest economy, has officially entered a recession (two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth).
  • Markets: This week, investors will be watching rising U.S.-China tensions, progress in state reopening plans, and overall COVID-19 case counts. Stocks have been mostly treading water since the rally in April.

AUTO

Auto Plant Reopenings Not Fast, Not Furious

Auto worker

Jan Woitas/picture alliance via Getty Images

But...they are finally here. The big three Detroit automakers—GM, Ford, and Fiat Chrysler—are restarting production at many U.S. factories today. In total, roughly 133,000 auto employees will head back to work by the end of this week, the AP estimates.

Some familiar caveats are in order:

  • The plants won’t be close to full production, so that 133,000 represents just over half of the pre-pandemic auto workforce.
  • GM expects it’ll take at least a month to get back to full speed, while Ford hasn’t set out a timetable. 

Plus, there are concerns over worker safety. The companies have spent their quarantine working with the United Auto Workers union on plans to ensure employees can a) go back to work and b) not contract COVID-19. Expect staggered shift changes, yellow tape to mark social distancing, and temperature checks. 

  • This month, GM sent a care package to all of its U.S. employees with five face masks, instructions on returning, and a letter from CEO Mary Barra. 
  • And here’s what Fiat Chrysler added to its break tables:

Fiat Chrysler

The auto industry: down but not out

We’ve been told not to do many things during this pandemic but driving a car isn’t one of them. So while the industry’s certainly been battered—total auto sales fell 21% from January through April—it appears to have escaped the fate of its airline cousins

  • In China, where the pandemic raged months before it arrived in the U.S., demand for VW cars has nearly returned to 2019 levels. 
  • The dealer AutoNation reported increased activity recently. By the end of April, Texas sales were down only 5% year-over-year. 

Big picture: These plant reopenings will show us whether safe, large-scale manufacturing can be accomplished in the socially distant era. Michigan hopes so: More than a third of the state’s labor force has filed for unemployment benefits since March 15.

        

INVESTING

Who's Buying, Who's Selling?

If you’re unsure whether to put money in the stock market or under your mattress, so are the world’s biggest investors.

Who’s selling

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway shockingly sold 84% of its stake in Goldman Sachs in Q1, according to a new filing. 

  • Berkshire funneled $5 billion into the bank when Wall Street was teetering in 2008.
  • But in this current crisis, Berkshire has soured on Goldman. It also recently dumped all of its holdings in U.S. airlines.

Bottom line, per Bloomberg’s Tara Lachapelle: “Buffett, 89, said proudly just two weeks ago that he thinks ‘nothing can stop America,’ but it’s getting harder to believe him.”

Who’s buying

Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund bought the dip in Q1, acquiring at least $7.7 billion worth of U.S. and European blue-chip stocks. 

Blue-chip = companies you’ve definitely heard of, including Facebook, Marriott, Disney, Starbucks, Citigroup, Boeing, and...Berkshire Hathaway. So meta. 

  • The fund also scooped up stakes in Carnival Corp and Live Nation, two companies that’ve been particularly pummeled by the coronavirus pandemic. 

Bottom line: Saudi Arabia’s bullish on an economic recovery.

        

RETAIL

Penney Pincher

JCPenney, the department store helping us find last-minute khakis for the band concert for 118 years, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection Friday night. 

The company secured $900 million in bankruptcy financing. It'll get the first half in June, but it must meet requirements set by lenders by mid-July to get the rest—otherwise, it'll pursue a sale. 

  • The plan for JCPenney: Reduce its store footprint, shave down $4.9 billion in debt, and potentially split into two: JCP the retailer and a real estate investment trust.

What happened? 

“This is absolutely about the coronavirus, this is about a governmental shutdown and about us all being in video chat for this,” an attorney from law firm Kirkland & Ellis said during a virtual court hearing this weekend. 

But many analysts think JCPenney’s path to Chapter 11 was inevitable. The company has botched turnarounds, struggled to break its dependence on the shopping mall, and failed to innovate in the e-commerce era. 

Zoom out: Macy’s, Brooks Brothers, or Belk could follow JCPenney into bankruptcy. And for all questions you might have about the b-word, we put together a quick and easy guide to bankruptcy. .

        

SPONSORED BY ALASKAN KING CRAB

Woah, Would You Look At Those Legs

Alaskan King Crab

Not our legs—they’ve grown scrawny from all our couch sitting. We’re talking about the legs of the largest and most impressive crabs caught in the world, the Alaskan King Crab. These long-legged beauties were caught by none other than the seafood aficionados at Alaskan King Crab Co.

Alaskan King Crab Co. delivers responsibly sourced, wild-caught king crab and seafood directly to your door. Their seafood is beloved by everyone from captains of industry to captains of the sea to Morning Brew employees who just can’t get enough shellfish. 

So while we most likely won’t be showing off our actual legs any time soon, we will be flaunting crabs legs so gorgeous they would make Poseidon blush. 

Brew readers can order from Alaskan King Crab Co. for $25 off their order with exclusive code BREWCREW and get free overnight shipping on orders over 4lbs. 

Beautiful legs are one click away. Just add lemon.

HOUSING

Maybe Connecticut Isn't So Boring After All

Polo in Connecticut

Tim Clayton/Corbis via Getty Images

Last month, the number of new apartment leases in Manhattan fell 71% to a decade-low of 1,407, according to a report from real estate firms Douglas Elliman and Miller Samuel. Vacancy rates also jumped to a 14-year high.

You can probably guess why. NYC has been the hardest-hit U.S. city, and COVID-19 restrictions have made it difficult for prospective tenants to tour apartments and commit to handing over their first born as a security deposit. Many of the city’s residents are expected to move out and find less crowded housing markets. 

  • On Friday, Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont said “phones are ringing off the hook at real estate offices” in the southern part of the state.  

Many New Yorkers have already hopped on the Merritt Parkway during the pandemic. And a NYT analysis of mail-forwarding requests showed a substantial spike in March and April to addresses outside NYC. 

  • Popular locations include upstate New York, Long Island, southern CT, Miami/Fort Lauderdale, Philly, and D.C. 

There’s a noticeable trend in who’s leaving. Most departures are from the city’s wealthier neighborhoods, especially the Upper East and West Sides of Manhattan. 

        

CALENDAR

The Week Ahead

Attentive Morning Brew readers will notice lots of retail earnings on tap. Inattentive Morning Brew readers don't exist. 

Monday: World Health Organization annual meeting; SoftBank earnings

Tuesday: Housing starts; Jerome Powell appears before the Senate Banking Committee; the Hunger Games prequel is released; earnings (Walmart, Home Depot, and Kohl’s)

Wednesday: Earnings (Target, Lowe’s, L Brands, Expedia) 

Thursday: Existing home sales; earnings (Best Buy, TJX, Medtronic, HPE); World Meditation Day 

Friday: Alibaba earnings; start to arrange barbecue menu, playlist, and cornhole tournament for Memorial Day weekend

        

SPORTS

How to Celebrate a Goal During a Pandemic

Erling Haaland dances

Giphy

Borussia Dortmund's 19-year-old superstar Erling Haaland dances alone after scoring the Bundesliga's first goal in more than two months on Saturday. The German soccer league returned this weekend to empty stadiums, big ratings, and rules prohibiting players from pig-pile goal celebrations. 

Elsewhere in the sports biz world...

  • NASCAR held its first race since the pandemic began (spectator-less, of course). 
  • The Last Dance, the 10-part documentary series about Michael Jordan, aired its two final episodes on ESPN last night. Also yesterday, a signed pair of sneakers Michael Jordan wore during his rookie season sold for $560,000 at auction.
  • The Preakness Stakes, which would have taken place this Saturday, has been moved to Oct. 3—one month after the Kentucky Derby.
        

WHAT ELSE IS BREWING

  • China hit back at the U.S. over new export controls targeting the Chinese telecom equipment maker Huawei.
  • The U.K. has hired more than 17,000 contact tracers to help contain the spread of COVID-19.
  • Sen. Amy Klobuchar raised anti-competition concerns about Uber's reported acquisition talks with Grubhub.
  • A thread on current and future city life in the coronavirus era.
  • The U.S. Space Force launched a spacecraft with an undisclosed mission from Cape Canaveral, FL, yesterday.

BREW'S BETS

It’s already begun. A disruption of the $1.7 trillion art market isn’t just coming—it’s already here. And it’s making some people a lot of money: High-profile collectors are projected to rake in $900 billion by 2026. For the first time in history, you can be part of it with Masterworks. Act fast and skip the 25,000-person waitlist.*

Fam, we have some food info to feast on. Panera’s new Family Feast Value Meals feed a family of four and start at $23. We’re talkin’ soups, salads, mac & cheeses, sandwiches, and chocolate chip cookies. Goodness gracious. .*

Binge, then workout: 

  • Binge: Avatar: The Last Airbender, which is back on Netflix as of Friday. 
  • Workout: Brew writer Toby Howell wants to introduce you to the “Bring Sally Up” challenge. In this workout set to the Moby song, “Flower,” the chorus instructs you to “Bring Sally up, and bring Sally down”...over and over again. You can choose any workout movement—he recommends squats, pushups, or planks—but when the song instructs you to “bring Sally up,” up is where you must go (and vice versa). 

*This is sponsored advertising content

CROSSWORD

Sample clue: Brown University mascot (five letters).

Play the crossword to find out what it is. 

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Written by Alex Hickey and Neal Freyman

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