Harry's Take September 4, 2024

Immigration Trends Going in Right Direction Since 2006: Freeze It at the Legal Rate Here!

Immigration continues to be one of the hotter issues in this election and there is a big difference between the two candidates with Trump being more committed to cutting it back. My question would be: Who would want to turn away the most motivated young, new workers?

I analyzed immigrants in great depth years ago and simply found that their average age coming in is 30 and the peak age is 23. I have also documented clearer than anyone out there that the key age range for economic growth and advances in productivity is from workforce entry at 20 to average peak in spending at 46, moving towards 47. Hence, workers in this typical 23 – 30 age range are ideal! Age 22 with a college degree is the most ideal.

And they ARE more motivated than the average worker here that age. They often risk their life to come here, more so the illegals than the legal ones. And they keep entry worker wage levels lower for businesses. So, what are the real trends in immigration?

Note in this chart that the most stable line is the blue one for legal immigrants. That has been steady around 1 million per year since 1990, and that is a mere 0.3% of our population, but still a nice boost, especially given the ideal workforce-prone ages. The more important line is the red one for illegals. That has all the volatility ranging from as high as plus 800,000 to minus 800,000…

Note that illegal immigration has been generally falling from plus 800,000 in 2006 to as low as minus 600,000 as recently as 2020. It is clearly already going in the right direction!

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Hence, I would see the most intelligent policy to be to continue to increase enforcement of illegal immigration towards near zero, but to continue to encourage and welcome legal immigrants with a target of at least maintaining the 1 million we steadily get now, and more would be better, just ask Australia.

But for crying out loud, politicians on both sides should start educating our citizens on the real facts and not the mere hyperbole. It is a distinct advantage over our developed world competitors that we naturally attract high immigration rates. Australia is our cousin English-speaking country that attracts a higher percentage and with higher education rates from Asia… and surprise, surprise, higher economic growth rates than us.

I say we model Australia… and encourage and continue to attract 1 million plus legal immigrants a year. A bit more would be better as we’re not getting any younger!

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Harry

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