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The Races at Longchamp; Edouard Manet; 1864

Does the NBA MVP award really matter? Zach Lowe asked this question on a podcast last week; I found it a hilarious rumination for a mid-September NBA conversation, especially once hearing that it stemmed from a discussion about legacies and Jayson Tatum in some ESPN production meeting. Lowe came around to agree that it does matter, and I wholeheartedly agree: MVP ballots help define eras in the NBA, then support or undercut narrative arcs, they provide the context of consensus and dissension in the ranks of NBA punditry and mainstream opinion. They are fascinating records of what certain people think about certain players in a certain period of time.

Yes, the MVP conversation is often deeply annoying, or worse. But the quasi-intellectual battles in January, February, March lead to something of value for the historical record. As an observer or fan, it’s worth taking the whole endeavor seriously, if you care.

And I care, and so my effort as a non-voter to take it seriously begins with this: a longlist of preseason 2023-24 MVP candidates. This longlist has 20 names. Yes, that’s long. But hey, the Booker Prize longlist is 13 titles long. It’s not a preseason MVP mediumlist. Eventually, this will become a shortlist. And then, an unofficial ballot.

Here’s the current list in alphabetical order.

Giannis Antetokounmpo

Giannis has finished top-5 in MVP voting for six straight seasons and top-7 for eight straight seasons. He is, in my opinion, the second-best player in the world and could very well win a couple more MVPs in his career. He belongs on any longlist until he totally breaks down or the Bucks fall off a cliff.

Paolo Banchero

This is more of a fringe inclusion than most names, but Banchero is the clear alpha of the Magic, and the Magic could be a top-3 team in the East if things break right. We have seen young stars explode into the upper tier of player rankings in the recent past, and Banchero will put up numbers. Call this a hipster pick.

Devin Booker

Booker finished fourth in MVP in 2021-22 and has never received votes otherwise. But he made All-NBA last season and followed it up with a great performance in Paris. I am on the record as being optimistic about the Suns’ outlook for the season. A strong regular season for Phoenix with Booker as the most dependable or spectacular player could get Booker on ballots.

Jalen Brunson

Brunson finished No. 5 in MVP voting last year, had a tremendous postseason and saw his Knicks likely get better going into 2024-25. That’s a perfect recipe for a potential MVP run. Barring injury, I’m pretty comfortable saying that Brunson will end up on the shortlist, too.

Jimmy Butler

If the Heat challenge the top of the East behind a re-committed Butler — who is playing for a contract, mind you — then Jimmy will have reminded everyone why he’s such an important player in this era and might get some love for MVP ballot spots despite box score stats that will always fall short of others.

Stephen Curry

If the Warriors have a surprisingly good season — which is totally possible; tell me you know what to expect from Andrew Wiggins — Curry will likely deserve MVP attention. Interestingly, last season was the first time other than injury-victim 2019-20 since 2011-12 that Curry didn’t receive a single MVP vote.

Anthony Davis

Davis finished top-5 twice in New Orleans, but no higher than No. 6 since moving to Los Angeles. He might be paying a penalty for playing with LeBron James. He was pretty fantastic last season, though, and had a strong Olympic tournament. I’m not convinced the Lakers will be particularly competitive in the West, and it would take a very high seed plus a shrinking LeBron James season to get AD over the top. But he has the talent, production and impact to make a case if the stars align.

Luka Doncic

A perennial preseason MVP favorite. He’ll win one at some point. Coming off of the Finals run might be a great time to do it.

Kevin Durant

Durant feels less likely than Booker to win MVP support even though Durant remains a more impactful player (in my mind, at least). But KD hasn’t finished top-5 in MVP voting since 2015-16, and it would take the Suns performing exceedingly well plus Booker missing time, in all likelihood, to garner Durant support.

Anthony Edwards

If the Timberwolves dominate the West, Edwards — who finished seventh in MVP voting and made All-NBA second team last season — will get lots of support. How Rudy Gobert is perceived is material on the credit Edwards receives for Minnesota’s excellence; it’s an interesting subplot, especially considering how positive Edwards continues to be on the beleaguered Gobert.

Joel Embiid

Embiid was the frontrunner before injuries derailed his 2023-24 season. His statistics and game-to-game dominance can be gobsmacking in a way few other players can match.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Shai finished fifth in 2022-23 and second in 2023-24. He might get one before Luka, which would be something. Oklahoma City is being talked about like a strong Western Conference regular season favorite; if that happens and if Denver struggles by any definition of that word, Shai will have earned tons of support as the clear alpha on a great team.

Tyrese Haliburton

Haliburton is probably closer to Banchero than the top guys, but it’s worth a mention because there was real buzz about Hali for All-NBA first team a couple of months into last season, and Indiana should be better. One of the best offensive engines in the NBA. Those guys typically do well come voting time.

LeBron James

The grand old king hasn’t received any MVP votes in either of the past two seasons, but he’s on a 20-year All-NBA streak. A 20-year All-NBA streak. A 20-YEAR ALL-NBA STREAK. That’s just absolutely wild. I find it hard to believe there’s a scenario in which LeBron is deemed the most valuable player in the league this season. But I also found it unlikely that he would be the most dominant, important player on Team USA during the 2024 Olympics, and win tournament MVP, and here we are.

Nikola Jokic

Obviously. This is beside the point, but is Jokic nearing the top-15 all-time conversation already? Higher?

Kawhi Leonard

Kawhi hasn’t received a single MVP vote since 2020-21, and has three top-5 finishes all-time. But there was a stretch last season where he got a good bit of buzz as one of the league’s most singular players, he picked up another All-NBA nod and he’s going to have more offensive responsibility this season with Paul George gone. There’s a world in which the Clippers are surprisingly good and pundits rush to give Kawhi credit over James Harden.

Donovan Mitchell

Best player on an East team that could win more than 50 games. Mitchell finished No. 6 in MVP voting in 2022-23 but hasn’t received any votes otherwise. That season marked his only All-NBA nod as well. It’s a little surprising, but he spent the start of his career in the impossible West, and he would have been on All-NBA last season if he hadn’t missed too many games.

Ja Morant

I’m thisclose to picking Memphis to get the No. 1 seed in the West. If that happens, and Morant has a clean record all season, how do you deny him even a look at the MVP? He finished No. 7 in 2021-22 and got a vote in 2022-23, but his suspensions cost him support and an All-NBA nod that second glorious Grizzlies season. Maybe it’s bounceback time. He’s a unique player in the league and he certainly draws eyeballs whenever he plays. That’s a good start for a comeback.

Jayson Tatum

This whole MVP hullabaloo started because my pal Ricky O’Donnell of SB Nation didn’t include him in his initial short list of MVP contenders. What Ricky wrote is true, though: “Tatum would easily fit the ‘best player on the best team’ MVP formula, but it feels like he’ll never get full credit for Boston’s success because his teammates are too good.” The Celtics’ depth and sheer excellence obviously hurt Tatum. It also matters that Tatum has been a remarkable teammate, subjugating his own offense to let Jaylen Brown, Derrick White and Jrue Holiday have more substantial roles. Meanwhile, few players on this MVP longlist defend as well as Tatum. For those reasons and a deep hope in the world, I’m including Tatum on the longlist. Let his performance be respected appropriately.

Victor Wembanyama

If you want to call this a stretch, go right ahead. I saw what I saw.

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Zion Williamson

This might be a real stretch, but on a number of the mid-tier West teams there lacks a clear alpha. Not so with the Pelicans: if the team is truly great, it’ll be because Zion is playing a lot and playing his game. Please remember that he almost made All-NBA in each of the two seasons where he played at least 2,000 minutes. If he’s on the floor, he’s putting up numbers and the Pelicans are probably winning games. Should New Orleans have a surprisingly good season, that could stack up in a real way.

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Here are a few more players who just missed the cut from this all-too-long longlist: Bam Adebayo, De’Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis, Kyrie Irving, Trae Young, Scottie Barnes, Damian Lillard, James Harden, Lauri Markkanen, Alperen Sengun, Josh Giddey, Cade Cunningham, LaMelo Ball.

We’ll revisit the longlist a month or so into the regular season.

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Be excellent to each other.