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GM. This is Milk Road. The newsletter that helps you get smarter about crypto, one analogy at a time.

Here’s what we got for you today:

Going to Permissionless? Reply to this email w/ your Telegram handle for an invite to our meetup (and 30% off tickets below)

SEPT. IS ABOUT TO CLOCK THE HIGHEST RETURNS ON RECORD (WHAT’S NEXT?) 🚀

“September, I’ma let you finish – but it looks like you’re about to have your best performance of all-time”

Did we just reference Kanye at the 2009 VMAs? Yes.

Isn’t that a little dated? Absolutely.

Is the point we’re making still accurate? Very much so.

‘Cause while there’s still a few hours left in the month of September, it’s looking like we’re about to close with the highest $BTC returns on record.

I.e. ‘Rektember’ may be in need of a rebrand this year:

That – right there ☝️ – is worth getting excited about! Because historically, when $BTC outperforms in September, big gains follow in Q4!

Ok, that’s nice for $BTC, but what about altcoins? Check this out…

While $BTC has appreciated after the recent Fed rate cuts, its market dominance has been falling.

This is a bullish sign! Because the only way Bitcoin’s price can go up, while its market dominance falls, is if altcoins outperform $BTC.

Here’s why this is getting us excited:

This ‘goldilocks zone’ of price appreciation is the one best suited to support a potential Altcoin Season. 👀 

We talked about it last month – but to save you a click, here’s a quick recap of what that means: 

Altcoin Season is like Christmas for alts – a magical time of year when 75% of the top 50 coins outperform Bitcoin over the trailing 90 days

The last time we wrote about it, the Altcoin Season indicator was at 22 (0-25 = $BTC Season, 75-100 = Altcoin Season).

Here’s where it’s at today:

So let’s set the scene…

Christmas (Altcoin Season) isn’t here just yet. 🎅 

…but you can feel it coming.

The weather is cooling, the leaves are starting to brown, and ‘shorts n’ a t-shirt’ are no longer a safe bet when leaving the house.

And all the while, Bitcoin remains strong!

The takeaway: Q4 might be about to get crazier than our neighbor Allen, who spends his afternoons yelling at ducks in his front yard…

(HINT: The ducks don’t exist).

WHAT TO LOOK OUT FOR THIS MONTH 📅

If September was ‘HEFTY’ on the chonk scale, October’s forecast would be shaping up to hit ‘OH LAWD HE COMIN.’ 👇

Here’s what’s on the horizon!

1/ Macro events 📊

The month is starting out with a macro event-fueled bang! 

Here’s what’s coming down the pike this week:

As you read this, market analysts will be scouring the speech J-Powell just made at the National Association for Business Economics Annual Meeting a few hours back – mining for insight into future Fed policy.

(And we’re about to join them!)

Beyond that, we’ll be keeping a keen eye on all things jobs (JOLTs, Jobless Claims, Sept. Jobs Report, and Nonfarm Employment data). 

We’ll be watching to make sure employment data remains in its ‘sweet spot’ – where unemployment:

2/ Token unlocks 🔓 

We're about to see a milk-curdling amount of token unlocks this month! 

Get a load of this:

There’s ten projects on that list – but we can only see one…

Celestia is unlocking $1.1B worth of tokens on October 30th – representing 81% of its circulating supply!

Good news is: We’re coming into Q4 of a halving year (a historically bullish period) – so anyone selling these unlocks should have solid incentive to put some of their profits back into the market.

3/ Conferences 🤝

Messari’s Mainnet starts today in New York, kicking off three days of back-to-back programming at Pier 36 (keep your eyes peeled for any big announcements!).

Followed by Permissionless III in Salt Lake City, from Oct 9-11, which the Milk Road team will be attending.

…in fact, we want you to join us!

If you don’t already have a ticket, we’ve sorted out a 30% discount for all Roadies (just click this link, and use the code MILK30 at checkout)!

Now, here’s the really important part:

If you’re going to be at Permissionless III – reply to this email with your Telegram handle.

We’ll set up a group chat and organize a Roadie hang out!

4/ Podcast guests 🎙

The Milk Road Show is bringing on some GOATED guests this month! 

We’ve got:

In fact, we’re kicking the party off early, with today’s guest Sankalp Shangari (Managing Director of Rising Capital) – where we talk all things macro! Including:

Click below to watch it now! 👇

YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts

BITE-SIZED COOKIES FOR THE ROAD 🍪

Agoric’s Orchestration API might sound technical, but it’s solving real problems by enabling one-click multi-chain transfers. By simplifying crypto’s user experience, it's paving the way for wider adoption across the space. *

Tether has teamed up with the DOJ to freeze over $6M tied to a Southeast Asian crypto scam. This marks part of Tether’s ongoing effort to combat illegal activities, with over $1.8 billion in illicit USDT frozen to date​. - DL News

Matrixport has acquired Crypto Finance AG from Deutsche Börse in an all-cash deal. The acquisition strengthens Matrixport’s regulatory footprint in Switzerland and will allow it to expand compliant crypto asset management services​.

The CleanSpark CEO expects Bitcoin to peak at just under $200,000 in the next 18 months. He believes this could trigger a long-term price increase, with factors like the upcoming U.S. elections influencing the market​.

Trump-backed World Liberty Financial has opened KYC verification on its website. The project aims to sell non-transferable governance tokens, with access limited to accredited investors and non-U.S. persons​.

*this is sponsored content

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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.