Economists are looking at everything from the cost of living and inflation to interest rates and stock market performance to predict holiday spending this year, but missing from recent forecasts is a variable that many retailers have been anticipating for months: the weather.

On average, 3.4% of retail sales are directly impacted by the weather, according to a National Retail Federation analysis extrapolating data from the American Meteorological Society. This totals about $1 trillion of global retail sales per year, so the financial stakes are high for retailers trying to properly allocate products in line with weather-driven demand.

But until recently, retailers’ use of weather data wasn’t very precise, Don Coash, senior account executive and meteorologist at Accuweather, told Retail Brew. Many would simply look at what happened during the previous year and base their purchasing decisions off those sales trends. For example, if winter came early last year and a retailer didn’t have enough snow shovels to meet demand, this year it will make sure to buy more snow shovels earlier.

“The problem with weather is it’s almost never the same year over year,” he said. “So they’re always chasing their tail and pulling it forward this year because of what happened last year.”

Accuweather provides weather data and forecasting services to half of the Fortune 500 companies and multiple retailers, including Burlington and Lowe’s, and Coash said many of its clients are now using advanced AI and machine learning algorithms to measure more precisely how weather affects metrics such as foot traffic and sales.

Keep reading here.—AV

As the holidays draw near, shoppers are prioritizing holiday essentials to keep a decorated home, the latest Shopify sales data shared first exclusively with Retail Brew suggests. The tech platform that builds e-commerce stores, reported top-selling items for September included Christmas tree stands, wreath, floral frames, and holiday stockings.

Orders for Christmas tree stands jumped 81%, while sales of Advent calendars rose 74%. Wreath and floral frames racked up 73% in sales. Holiday stockings, holiday ornaments, and wrapping paper also saw increases.

Keep reading here.—VC

This Halloween, Uber Eats is scaring up new business through a partnership with Spirit Halloween for costumes and spooky decor.

Consumers can shop Spirit Halloween, the largest Halloween retailer in North America, in the US and Canada using the Uber Eats, Postmates, and Uber app, accessing the same prices offered in store, Uber said this week. Spirit Halloween opened a record 1,525 locations this year, and began advertising for its 50,000 seasonal hires in June. Uber joins rival DoorDash, which added the Halloween retailer to its platform last year.

As it works to expand into other retail sectors beyond restaurant delivery, Uber Eats has been adding a slew of new partnerships this year, including Instacart, Save a Lot, and the Vitamin Shoppe.

Keep reading here.—EC