People are Talking about Jan 6th and that's Bad for Trump
With a month until the election, there's no time like the present to become a paid subscriber to Message Box. This newsletter is a version of the strategy memos I used to write for Barack Obama and other politicians, tailored for people who talk and text about politics all day. My goal is to give every activist, voter, and volunteer the same political analysis, poll breakdowns, and talking points that insiders get from their consultants. People are Talking about Jan 6th and that's Bad for TrumpJD Vance and Jack Smith have put Trump's past - and future - efforts to overturn the election back on the agendaTuesday night’s vice presidential debate was a throwback from another era. The tone was largely civil. There were no Trumpian flourishes or broadsides against the moderator. Vance, Walz, and the moderators acted like this was a normal election — the typical contest between two different parties who care about the country but differ on policy. Everyone ignored the giant orange elephant in the room. I understand why Walz took the approach he did — it made strategic sense. But everything felt off, given the stakes of this election. Even though JD Vance put a coat of Bush-ian compassionate conservatism on the MAGA agenda, this is not a normal election, and Vance is not the normal vice presidential candidate. There is one reason Vance was on that stage and Mike Pence wasn’t. Vance will do whatever it takes to put Trump in the White House no matter what the voters decide. Voters care most about reproductive freedom, the price of gas and groceries, and border security. Every poll, focus group, and conversation with random voters in the grocery store makes that clear. However, the fact that Donald Trump has been indicted for conspiring to overturn the last election and is publicly promising to overturn the next one hangs over this entire campaign. Yet, there has been limited discussion from the candidates, the media, and the voters about what Trump did on January 6th. Sometimes it feels as if that dark day has been memory-holed. At one point, Trump was supposed to be standing trial right now for his role in the conspiracy to overturn the election that led to the violence at the Capitol. Alas, the Supreme Court intervened on his behalf and Trump’s crimes against democracy disappeared from the campaign agenda. Until this week. Thanks to JD Vance and Jack Smith, January 6th is once again public discourse; and that’s a problem for Trump. Vance Steps In ItWeirdly, we had to wait until the last question to discuss democracy and whether Trump would allow a peaceful transition of power. Vance had been doing well; and then he faceplanted. The moment Vance refused to acknowledge that Trump lost the election, Vance lost the debate. The Bulwark’s Will Saletan eloquently explained why this moment was so consequential:
Nowadays, only political junkies watch debates. Moments like these travel on social media in the hours and days after a debate. Vance’s damning non-answer is everywhere. It’s the one thing people are talking about after a lightly-viewed, overly collegial, somnambulant debate. The Harris-Walz campaign immediately recognized the gravity of Vance’s answer — and the opportunity it presented. Within hours of the debate, they released this ad. This moment might have faded from the political conversation, but then Jack Smith (Remember him?) popped back up. The New NewsOn Wednesday, the January 6th case was back in the news. Charlie Savage and Alan Feuer wrote in the New York Times:
The filing is filled with damning details about the role Trump and his aides played in the various schemes to overturn the election. Perhaps the most evocative and alarming revelation involves how Trump reacted to the threats on Vice President Pence’s life. From the New York Times report:
Other revelations include Trump telling Jared Kushner and Ivanka, "It doesn't matter if you won or lost the election. You still have to fight like hell." The whole filing tells a story. Trump and his allies are willing to break any law and stomp any norm to hold on to power. The Big Lie was a fabricated justification to steal an election. It’s not just Vance and Judge Chutkan keeping January 6th in the news, “Fight Like Hell” a powerful new documentary about January 6th was released. You can watch it on YouTube. Please consider sharing it with your friends and family. Later today, Harris will campaign with Liz Cheney, who served on the January 6th Committee and is one of the more powerful voices about Trump’s anti-democratic efforts. January 6th is a Problem for TrumpThe polling is straightforward. Most Republicans don’t support what happened on January 6th. People aren’t buying the BS that Trump, Vance and the Right are trying to sell about the tragedy. A Data for Progress poll shows that less than a third of Republicans describe January 6th as a peaceful protest. That poll also found that 53% of voters and 57% of Independents are less likely to support a candidate who supports attempts to overturn the 2020 election. This is bigger than what Trump did four years ago. It’s about what he could do one month from now. Remember, he has yet to say that he will accept the election results, he is planning to pardon the folks who stormed the Capitol, he threatened violence if he loses, and he pledges to jail his political opponents if he wins. The economy and abortion are key to this election, but the more people are thinking about January 6th, the Big Lie, and potential political violence, the less likely they are to vote for Trump. For that, he has JD Vance to thank. Invite your friends and earn rewardsIf you enjoy The Message Box, share it with your friends and earn rewards when they subscribe. |
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The Pundits are Wrong: JD Vance Didn't Win the Debate
Wednesday, October 2, 2024
Vance impressed the pundits, but Walz scored points on the issues that matter to voters ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
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Tuesday, October 1, 2024
Trump's age and a very close election adds scrutiny to the debate ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
What the New NYT Polls Tell Us About How Kamala Harris Wins
Sunday, September 29, 2024
It's back to 2020 again: This is a very close, very winnable race. ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
Why Kamala Harris Went to the Border
Saturday, September 28, 2024
Eroding your opponent's strength is a smart strategy ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
Today: Join my State of the Race Q&A
Friday, September 27, 2024
With less than 40 days to go, there is much to discuss. ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
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