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GM. This is Milk Road – the "Terminator 2" of crypto newsletters. 

(Each edition is as good, if not better, than the last).

Here’s what we got for you today:

OCTO-BEAR: FAKE OUT, OR FOR REAL? 🐻

The art of lowering expectations is a super power.

It’s the sole reason why “little guy beats up big guy” was able to dominate YouTube’s trending page for a good decade or so.

…until YouTube inevitably decided that auto playing a fight video after “How To Cook Chicken Parm Like Nonna” was a weird match – ending the category’s reign.

And it looks like October may be pulling from the same weathered playbook.

Expectations were high leading into ‘Uptober’ → but a sea of red across most major crypto charts has since reset those expectations…

(Making ‘outperformance’ a much lower bar to vault this month).

Question is: will that actually happen, or will it be down only from here?

Let’s look to history for a potential answer…

1/ From May to September this year, each month has started bearish before recovering (except for June)

Does this mean a green October is a lock? Absolutely not. 

(But it sure does help to balance out the doom calling that’s rampant across Crypto Twitter right now).

2/ The same thing happened last year…

Sure, history doesn’t repeat itself…but it can rhyme.

Fast forward a couple weeks and…BOOM!

3/ Ignoring month-to-month performance, we’re still in an uptrend.

In case you missed us mentioning it last week, we’ve been making higher lows and higher highs since August (and all of these recent dumps are still yet to invalidate the upward trend):

So what could push this trend further up n’ to the right?

We’ve got a bunch of potentially market-moving events coming up this week, including: 

Plus a whole bunch more!

What should you be looking at in order to gauge October’s potential?

Scroll down to our “What To Watch For This Week” section for a closer look 👇

WHAT TO WATCH FOR THIS WEEK 📅 

We know, we know! 

If we keep saying ‘this week is a doozy,’ each Monday – it’ll lose its meaning…

But, it’s not our fault if the schedule of macro events, earnings, unlocks, and podcast guests keeps maxing out on the ‘doozy scale.’

And this week is no different. Here’s what we’ve got!

1/ Macro events 📊

Here’s what we’re focusing on:

Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently came out and said the FOMC isn’t looking to make a 50 basis point (bps) interest rate cut again – instead looking at 25 bps.

And so far, according to Polymarket, investors are taking J Powell at his word:

Buuuut, that’s not to say this decision is set in stone – very few people saw the last cut of 50 bps coming so far out (except maybe Joe McCann).

If Jobless claims go up (indicating future rising unemployment), while CPI/PPI inflation continues to trend down, it could give the Fed more of a green light to cut by 50 bps. 

(Stimulating the economy, without pushing inflation up too drastically – in theory).

Here’s hoping the numbers are in our favor!

2/ Earnings season 💣

Alright, let’s see what we’ve got on the earnings calendar…

Sure, your uncle Steve might think the folks at BlackRock are “a class of shadowy reptilian hybrids that are taking over the financial market” – but:

If Bitcoin contributes to BlackRock reporting a positive quarter, it will help to send a message to the rest of the traditional financial world:

“Crypto belongs in your portfolio.”

3/ Token unlocks 🔓

First three thoughts, shot out of a canon and onto the page:

4/ Podcasts 🎙️

Looking for the culprits responsible for red-lining the doozy scale?

Here’s who’s on the line up this week on The Milk Road Show:

We’ll be locking Jay Hamilton in the Podcast room at Permissionless III this week, and telling him he can’t leave until we decide to stop throwing goated guests at him.

Jay: 

Want to join us at Permissionless? Click here and use code MILK30 for 30% off!

Don’t have the patience to wait for these episodes to drop? 

Say no more. Our chat with Pomp just went live — where he gives us the inside word on his 9 investing secrets!

Including, but not limited to:

Click below to listen now! 👇

YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts

BITE-SIZED COOKIES FOR THE ROAD 🍪

Blockscout is your next-level block explorer. Multi-chain, highly configurable, and open-source, this essential DeFi tool gives access to all chain data and dApp functionalities. *

How Satoshi changed finance in the nine-page blueprint for Bitcoin. With crypto folk eager to learn Satoshi's identity this week here's a look at how Bitcoin changed the nature of money. - DL News

To mark USDT’s 10-year anniversary, Tether is releasing a documentary called "Stability and Freedom in Chaos." It highlights the role of stablecoins like USDT in inflation-hit countries like Turkey, Brazil, and Argentina.

Crypto investment products saw $147 million in outflows due to weaker market sentiment. Significant withdrawals were seen particularly from Bitcoin-related products.

EigenLayer mistakenly transferred $5.5 million worth of tokens to an attacker. The company further stated that a portion of these funds have been frozen by law enforcements.

* this is sponsored content

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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.