Why Lifetime Value is Relevant Again in Software
Tomasz TunguzVenture Capitalist If you were forwarded this newsletter, and you'd like to receive it in the future, subscribe here. Why Lifetime Value is Relevant Again in Software
Budget cuts followed interest rate hikes in 2022. By late 2023, more than a year of financial scrutiny had challenged many publicly traded software companies. However, 2024 has been a tough year again. Net dollar retention for publicly traded software companies fell from 113% on average to 108%, a five percentage point drop.1 80% of publicly traded companies saw their NDR wilt again in 2024. Overall account expansion remains roughly 5 percentage points above inflation. There’s a similar story in payback periods. The average publicly traded company saw paybacks increase by 9 months from 35 months to 44 months. That means most software companies aren’t achieving positive contribution margin until the fourth year of a customer. Again, 80% of companies saw paybacks worsen.2 I’m not a fan of lifetime value (LTV) in startups (how can one predict a 7 year customer lifetime value if the company isn’t yet 7 years old?) But for public software companies with these sparser economics, LTV becomes an important determinant of whether & when to invest more in growth. If paybacks are 4.5 years & LTVs are five years, that data should provoke strategic questions about the company operations. 1T-test p value of 3.087e-06 |
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