Tuesday Briefing: Two weeks until Election Day
Good morning. We’re covering the U.S. campaign two weeks from Election Day and the latest on the conflict in Lebanon. Plus, Aleksei Navalny’s memoir.
The U.S. presidential race is essentially tiedWith two weeks to go before the Nov. 5 vote, polls show Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are running neck and neck, Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst, writes. Harris and Trump are essentially tied in The Times’s polling average of five critical battleground states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin and North Carolina. Neither candidate is ahead by a single point, and in several of these states neither candidate is ahead by more than two-tenths of a percentage point. Elections, however, aren’t decided by the polls; they’re decided by the voters. A lead or a deficit of 0.2 points in a polling average is not the difference between winning or losing, even though it may feel like it. Read the rest of Nate’s analysis here. The last-ditch hunt for undecided voters: Both campaigns are desperately hunting for the few voters still up for grabs. Both camps think many of them are younger, Black or Latino. The Harris team is also eyeing white, college-educated women.
The Lebanon conflict is ‘out of control,’ a U.S. official saidPresident Biden’s envoy to Lebanon said yesterday that the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah had “escalated out of control.” On a visit to Beirut, the envoy, Amos Hochstein, called for the revival of a U.N. resolution that would require Israeli forces to withdraw from Lebanon, and for Hezbollah to be disarmed along the countries’ border. Later, the Israeli military launched new waves of airstrikes near Beirut. At least four people were killed, including a child, and more than 20 injured in an attack near a government hospital, according to Lebanon’s health ministry. Here’s the latest. Other developments in the Middle East:
Russia hosts nations in hopes of eclipsing the WestThe BRICS summit — Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — begins today in Kazan, a city in southwest Russia. President Vladimir Putin hopes the meeting will show the West that, despite Russia’s global isolation, he still has important economic allies. What’s at stake: Russia hopes to bring countries into a coalition to form a new world order not dominated by the West. While Putin will be the host, China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, will arrive at the summit in a commanding position. Analysts said they would be watching how Xi interacts with Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India, who has drawn closer to the U.S. in recent years. Here’s what else to watch.
Sports
A comedy-drama television show called “Gidan Badamasi” has struck a chord with families across northern Nigeria for asking the question: how many children is too many? Attitudes about family size are shifting across Africa. A protracted baby boom has produced the world’s youngest, fastest-growing population, opening up potential benefits for global influence and economic growth. But it also creates a challenge to educate and employ all of these young people. Lives lived: Fethullah Gulen, who was accused of plotting a failed coup against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey in 2016, has died at 83.
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Navalny’s prison diariesOn social media, Aleksei Navalny, the Russian opposition leader, often struck a hopeful note about his country’s future. But the journal entries he smuggled out of prison were often blunter. “I will spend the rest of my life in prison and die here,” he wrote. His reflections were pieced together by his widow, Yulia Navalnaya, in “Patriot,” a posthumous memoir released today in the U.S., eight months after his death at age 47 in a Russian penal colony. The book is laced with Navalny’s trademark wry humor and idealism. But it’s also the account of a husband and father facing reality: He will never be with his family again, Vladimir Putin might silence him, and his fight will have grave consequences for those he loves.
Cook: This lentil and sweet potato salad has a secret: a brown-butter vinaigrette. Watch: “Smile 2” takes a terrifying look at pop stardom. Plan: How to see Manhattan (and a bit of Brooklyn) on a budget. Read: Jeff VanderMeer, the king of weird fiction, released his weirdest book yet. Compete: Take this week’s Flashback history quiz. Play: Spelling Bee, the Mini Crossword, Wordle and Sudoku. Find all our games here. That’s it for today. See you tomorrow. — Gaya P.S. The Times won two awards from the South Asian Journalists Association. We welcome your feedback. Send us your suggestions at briefing@nytimes.com.
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