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Here’s what we got for you today:

POLYMARKET VS. MAINSTREAM POLITICAL POLLS 🥊

Is it just us?

Or does it feel like someone slipped mushrooms into the drink of mainstream election pollers and Polymarket bettors.

Both are following the same race (the 2024 US elections) – but each side is seeing/experiencing/presenting two very different realities.

Here’s what we’re on about 👇

Mainstream polls:

Polymarket odds:

So how’s this happening? 

If we had to make a politically-uneducated guess, it’d fall into one of these three categories:

1/ The simple answer (duh)

One data set is right, the other is wrong. We’ll find out post-election.

2/ The ‘money meets conviction’ theory

A bunch of bettors are convinced Trump is going to win the election and – even at today’s skewed odds – see a potential ~54% return on investment as easy money.

3/ The ‘bettor is better’ approach

Say you’re all-in on Trump, have a bunch of money in the bank, and want to support him as a candidate.

You could donate a big chunk of change to a super PAC that will then fund his campaign…

OR, you could:

Here’s the secret edge buried within that last option:

Traditional political polls will ask a pool of people, across a range of demographics, who they’re voting for and try their best to extrapolate that out to a national average.

Whether one voter whispers “Trump” or yells “DONALD J. TRUMP, AMERICA’S SAVIOR!” down the phone line when answering the polling survey – it doesn’t hold any more or less weight. 

It’s still one data point in the poll.

But with betting, your effect on the odds can change based on how much money you’re putting down. 

(Want to try and shift the collective perspective on who’s leading the race? Pay more).

The idea that Trump bettors are smaller in number, but are placing bigger bets, is a nice theory…

But right now, the data doesn’t back it up:

First things first: how cool is it that blockchain allows anyone to view/scrutinize this data?

Second…there are more individual bettors backing Trump to win over Harris (97k vs. 73k) with average bets on either side being more or less the same ($4,451 vs. $4,421).

Could individuals be creating multiple wallets to hide this concentration of opinion?

Sure. But that’s a whole other rabbit hole – and our tin foil hat is in the shop right now.

Good news is: we’ll all find out which data-set is correct on November 5th.

THE US IS STILL THE CRYPTO HUB OF THE WORLD (BY A LONG SHOT) 🌎

Damn!

If we had a humiliation fettish, we’d be so freakin’ jealous of Gary Gensler right now.

Despite all his efforts to squash the US crypto industry through vague regulation and “arbitrary and capricious” lawsuits – he’s still failing miserably!

(Some people would pay good money for that kind of public embarrassment).

Throughout the peak of Gary’s regulatory rampage, the US crypto industry not only survived, but outpaced every other country in crypto value ($$$) received! 👇

Meanwhile, VC money continues to pour into the US crypto industry! 👀

Companies headquartered in the United States pulled in 56% of all VC capital invested in Q3 of 2024. 🤯

The next best?

And this isn’t the result of some blind patriotism.

Money flows to where the founders are – and right now, 46.7% of all crypto builders are based in the US.

Now, here’s the kicker:

If regulations loosen up – particularly with a potential Trump return – we could see a massive boom that pushes the US even further ahead.

…and if we don’t? 

Well, if this data is anything to go by, the US crypto industry will continue to do its thing – pace unchanged (it’s a win/mega win).

Thoughts and prayers to Gary.

BITE-SIZED COOKIES FOR THE ROAD 🍪

Unlock Prime offers exclusive perks like $ETH rewards, premium event management tools for side events, and more. It's designed to enhance onchain creative projects with advanced features and partner discounts, all built on Unlock Protocol by the team at Unlock Labs.*

Uniswap launches permissionless bridging directly from the Uniswap interface. It currently allows users to transfer assets across nine different blockchain networks.

After 7 days of daily inflows, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have shifted to negative flows. Despite the $79M outflow on Tuesday, the ETFs have seen $2.6B of inflows over the past 7 trading days.

Chainlink has introduced a new system to bridge blockchain payments for TradFi financial institutions. Collaborating with SWIFT, this integration will enable digital asset settlement with minimal adjustments to existing TradFi trading infrastructure.

Gemini, a leading US-based exchange, expects the 2024 election to have a major impact on crypto, but not as you may think. With Trump ready to cut red tape and Harris considering stricter controls, the future of your crypto bags might depend on who wins.*

*this is sponsored content and not financial advice

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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.