So much for retail therapy: Pre-election nerves are leading a lot of Americans to close their wallets until they know who will have the nuclear codes next year, the Federal Reserve reported this week.

There’s been a “pretty remarkable” reaction to this year’s uncertainty that surpasses the typical consumer spending slowdown that happens before presidential elections, Fed officials said, partially because of how close this race is. According to the Fed:

• Many construction, manufacturing, and textile businesses reported declining demand across the country in September, and some producers and builders are pausing materials orders and new projects until the dust settles on the election.
• Almost a third of Americans tasked with financial decisions (like CFOs) have postponed, canceled, or stripped down near- and long-term investment plans this year due to election anxiety.

The vibes are “let’s wait and see.” Half of Americans think the outcome of this race for the White House will significantly move the needle on their net worth, according to the financial planning service Empower. Uncertainty for the future among small-business owners is also at a nearly 40-year high, per the National Federation of Independent Business.

Compounding the stress: Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s route to lower interest rates remains unpaved—and is reportedly slower than some firms expected. Plus, whoever takes office will decide whether to renew or let expire a $3.4 trillion tax cut passed by former President Donald Trump, which would disproportionately benefit the top 5%, according to CNN.

Regardless of who wins, the Fed’s inevitable rate cuts will make borrowing money cheaper, which is expected to lend a boost to small businesses in the coming months.—ML

Fallout from McDonald’s E. coli outbreak continues. Burger King and Yum Brands-owned restaurants, including KFC, Taco Bell, and Pizza Hut, have taken onions out of the kitchen at some locations after McDonald’s identified the ingredient as a potential culprit. At least 49 people have fallen ill and one person died across 10 states, in most cases after eating a McDonald’s Quarter Pounder. Those burgers are off the McD’s menu in large swaths of the country, while its onion supplier, Taylor Farms, has issued a recall. The McDonald’s-linked illnesses are caused by a particularly dangerous E. Coli strain that can lead to kidney injury.—SK

Trump whale identified on election-betting site Polymarket. The prediction market that enables wagers on the presidential election told the New York Times Dealbook that an experienced French trader was behind four accounts betting big on a Trump victory. The cost of wagering on a second Trump term on the popular site rose sharply recently, implying that the market gives Trump significantly better electoral odds than the roughly 50/50 chances reflected by most polls, which prompted speculation about deliberate manipulation. But Polymarket believes that the Trump bull was trading in good faith. The company also noted that Trump’s implied odds on its platform are similar to those of other prediction markets like Kalshi and PredictIt.—SK

Big luxury brands merger hits speedbump. A federal judge granted a preliminary injunction that the Federal Trade Commission made against an $8.5 billion deal that would see Tapestry, the owner of Coach, Stuart Weitzman, and Kate Spade, buy Capri, which owns Michael Kors, Versace, and Jimmy Choo. At trial last month, the FTC had argued that the merger would drive up the cost of handbags and cause harm to employees of the brands via lower wages and fewer benefits. This is the latest in a long string of mergers that FTC Chair Lina Khan has sought to prevent.—HVL

People are gunning for an unnatural-tasting liquid that gives them a little oomph. That’s the lesson from the latest acquisition by beverage giant Keurig Dr Pepper, which announced it is buying energy drinkmaker Ghost for nearly $1 billion.

In the deal, Keurig gets 60% of the company for $990 million and will acquire the other 40% in a different transaction in 2028. It’s the biggest acquisition by the company since it bought Dr Pepper Snapple in 2018 for $19 billion. Keurig has a market value of ~$47 billion, bolstered by its sodas (Canada Dry, Sunkist) and hot drinks (Green Mountain Coffee, Swiss Miss).

Not its first rodeo. Keurig bought a 30% stake in Nutrabolt, the maker of C4 Energy, for $863 million in 2022 and has invested in two other lines of energy drinks since then. The Ghost move follows a larger trend of beverage companies investing in energy drinks. Coca-Cola is the biggest shareholder in Bang Energy-owner Monster, and PepsiCo has a stake in the ever-present-in-your-office energy drink, Celsius.

Big picture: Even though you’ve never seen it outside of a bodega, Ghost’s sales have more than quadrupled over the last three years as people increasingly creep away from coffee and toward other worse-for-you caffeine products.—CC

Pantone’s muted peach fuzz is getting blown off the color sample wall, because gold is so back, baby. The precious metal touched another record high Wednesday and experts say the rally could continue, potentially passing $2,800/oz. in the weeks leading up to the presidential election.

Why now? Along with consuming Zebra Cakes, people tend to buy gold when things feel uncertain. Despite the Fed quelling recession fears and reports that the US economy is doing great, there is still a lot of dubiety: a tumultuous presidential election, lingering concerns about inflation, and rising geopolitical tension in Ukraine and the Middle East. Through all that, gold is up nearly 31% this year.

• Central banks have a renewed interest in the metal: According to The Economist, 11% of reserves consisted of gold last year, up from 6% in 2008 (though still way down from the 40% back in 1970, when bankers were probably watching Goldfinger).
• Retail investors have jumped into the market by buying gold bars at Costco and through ads on social media, TV, and right-wing podcasts.

What it means for bitcoin: Maybe nothing, but also maybe a rally for the cryptocurrency if history repeats itself.—MM

That would be M136279841, which was recently discovered by amateur math whiz Luke Durant. At over 41 million digits long, it’s the largest known prime number. And it took way more than back-of-the-napkin calculating to find, since verifying whether a number is prime gets progressively harder for larger integers.

Durant, who previously worked at Nvidia as a programmer, spent a year and $2 million of his own funds to complete the numerical quest, according to the Washington Post. To speed up the calculations, he used GPUs—the sophisticated computer chips his former employer produces for AI—housed in 24 servers across 17 countries. The DIY undertaking has few applications beyond nerdy entertainment and fitting perfectly into this newsletter section, but Durant says his use of publicly available fallow cloud storage space (which he termed “Big Tech’s leftovers”) demonstrates that computing-intensive breakthroughs need not be exclusive to Silicon Valley giants.—SK

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