The Message Box - Trump Stumbles to the Finish Line
Thank you for being one of the nearly 100,000 members of the Message Box community. This inspiring group includes political activists, operatives, candidates, and volunteers. I consider it a privilege to communicate with you several times a week during this critically important election. If you want to upgrade your subscription to support this newsletter and receive more content and analysis, I am offering a 20% discount on annual subscriptions. Either way, thank you for joining me on this journey and for everything you are doing to defeat MAGA extremists up and down the ballot. Dan Trump Stumbles to the Finish LineTrump won late deciders in 2016 and 2020, things don't look as good this time aroundIn close races, nothing is more important than closing strong. And with four days to go, Donald Trump is most definitely not closing strong. Just look at the last week of his campaign:
I am writing this midday Friday, so it’s unlikely Trump will find another way to self-immolate politically between now and when you read this post. Trump’s surrogates like Speaker Mike Johnson, Elon Musk, and Trump Transition Chair Howard Lutnick make matters worse at every turn. Kamala Harris, on the other hand, has been closing very strongly. I have seen polling on her ellipse speech in front of 75,000 people, and she knocked it out of the park. Over the last week, her campaign played offensively, dictating the terms of the political conversation. Trump is reacting to her and is clearly off his game. Why Closing Well MattersWhile most voters made up their mind months if not years ago, there is a slice of voters who don’t decide until the final week. The news environment in the final week is very influential with these voters. They have either been going back and forth for months or, more likely, are just tuning into politics in the final days before the election. This is particularly true because our media ecosystem makes it challenging for all but the biggest junkies to follow political news. Campaigns track what voters are hearing about the candidates. In focus groups, the first question asked of respondents is often how much they have heard about a candidate and whether what they heard made them feel better or worse about that candidate. The poll often includes an open-ended question asking voters to volunteer what they have heard. Those responses are then put into a word cloud to see what’s breaking through. Here’s an example from a recent Navigator Research poll about Project 2025. Unbelievably, Trump closed strong in his two previous presidential campaigns. According to exit polls, 5% of voters decided during the last week in 2020 and 13% in 2016. Both times Trump won those late-deciding voters. He won them by 3 in 2016 and by 12 in 2020. Absent those late deciders, Trump would have lost in 2016, and 2020 would have been nearly as close. Why Trump’s Closing Gaffes Are Particularly DamagingCheck out Donald Trump’s closing ad. The campaign is spending tens of millions of dollars on this ad to blanket the battleground states. If you are watching football in Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin this weekend, you will see this ad countless times. The ad hammers Trump’s best arguments — he’s better on the economy, he’s tougher on the border, and Kamala Harris represents another four years of Joe Biden. This message was supposed to be the thrust of Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally. It’s what his campaign handlers want him to be hitting in these final rallies. However, looking over news coverage and social media surrounding Trump’s events, there is barely a mention of any of those issues. His word cloud would have (in large print) words like Puerto Rico, chaos, anti-vaccine, abortion, and Liz Cheney. This is not what his campaign wants for two reasons. First, the Trump Campaign cannot handle a big conversation about abortion at the end of the race. Trump’s “whether women like it or not” comment pushed that conversation to the forefront. One simplistic way to think about this race is as follows: we know that the economy will be the top issue for voters. Abortion and immigration have been jockeying for second place. If abortion is more salient than immigration, that is good news for Harris. Second, undecided voters are cross-pressured between their distaste of Trump’s chaotic conduct and divisive rhetoric and their belief that he will be better on the economy. Over this last week, Trump excelled in reminding voters what they like least about him. The drama and division. It’s exhausting; and for some voters it might be the straw that breaks the camel’s back. According to Harris Campaign Senior Advisor David Plouffe, Trump antics are hurting him. On Friday, Plouffe tweeted:
Let’s hope we get a few more days of Trump being Trump. You're currently a free subscriber to The Message Box. For the full experience, upgrade your subscription. |
Older messages
If Kamala Harris Win, Here are Three Reasons Why
Friday, November 1, 2024
The polls can't tell us who is going to win, but there are other measures to look at ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
My Conversation with Sarah Longwell about the State of the Race
Thursday, October 31, 2024
Watch now (42 mins) | Our discussion was part of Substack's Election Dialogues series. ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
Will the Polls Be Wrong Again?
Wednesday, October 30, 2024
Some thoughts on whether the polls are underestimating Trump supporters ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
How Trump's Racist Rally Might Affect the Campaign
Tuesday, October 29, 2024
Trump is very good at getting attention, not so great at using it once he has it ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
One Week Out: A Live Conversation with Sarah Longwell of the Bulwark
Monday, October 28, 2024
Tomorrow, I'll be joined by Sarah Longwell of The Bulwark for a live conversation at 6pm PT/9pm ET to discuss voter sentiment, the latest polling, and what it will take for each candidate to win
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