What's Happening

Election

Donald Trump Completes a Stunning Political Comeback

What's going on: It's official, voters elected former President Donald Trump (R) the 47th president of the United States, with over 270 electoral votes and victories in key battleground states of Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. (The map looked more like 2016 than 2020.) The 78-year-old made history as the first convicted felon and oldest person ever to win the White House, and he’s expected to be the first Republican to win the popular vote in two decades. Trump’s strategy of courting a coalition of less engaged voters and minority groups, especially Black and Hispanic men, paid off. Despite all the Gen Z memes and Vice President Kamala Harris (D) hype, Trump saw a boost in the youth vote and the “bro” vote, which Trump’s campaign heavily targeted, helped secure his win. (Women showed up for Harris, but that wasn’t enough to hand her a victory). Trump’s messaging on immigration and the economy resonated with voters, giving him an edge as many expressed dissatisfaction with President Joe Biden’s administration — baggage Harris struggled to shake.

What it means: Trump has proven to be political Teflon — no matter the scandal or issue, he can outmaneuver it and still garner support. Voters chose Trump despite the litany of offensive or racist remarks at rallies, concerns about his age, questions about his mental acuity, the fallout from the Jan. 6 insurrection, and a trial that ended with a criminal conviction. In a speech early this morning, Trump said the nation delivered “an unprecedented and powerful mandate,” while Sen. JD Vance (R-OH) called the election “the greatest political comeback” in US history. Now, Trump will be tasked with leading a divided country, navigating two major wars, and easing economic worries. As for Democrats, the party is expected to reevaluate its strategy, with one analyst predicting a shift toward a more centrist approach. Dems will likely be looking for ways to win back Hispanic and rural voters, which is essential to keeping their base intact.

What comes next: Before Trump is inaugurated on Jan. 20, electors will cast their votes, then the results will be certified by Congress. Trump’s legal woes, including his state criminal cases, could be put on pause until he’s out of office. As for his policies, he has vowed to carry out the “largest deportation” in history (which analysts say could be hard to pull off), prosecute his political opponents using the Justice Department, and tack tariffs on every import coming into the US. And while Trump said he would veto a national abortion ban, advocates say in vitro fertilization and other reproductive freedoms are under threat. Still, most policy efforts will depend on whether Republicans take back both chambers of Congress.

Related: Who Could Be in Trump’s Cabinet? (Politico)

Politics

Abortion Ballot Measures Mixed, As Control of Congress Remains Up in the Air

What’s happening with Congress: In a major loss for Democrats, the Senate flipped red with Republicans winning at least 51 seats. Among the notable defeats: Bernie Moreno (R) bested incumbent Sherrod Brown (D) in Ohio. The GOP also clinched key wins in Nebraska and West Virginia. The House is currently too close to call, and could be decided by blue states, like New York and California. If Republicans reach a “trifecta” — securing both chambers and the presidency — Trump could pass more of his agenda, potentially impacting the economy, climate policy, immigration, and reproductive rights. If Democrats gain control of the House, they’ll provide a check on Republican power for at least two years, until the midterm elections. 

What’s going on with abortion amendments: After the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022, abortion measures won big in every state that had them on the ballot — but Florida, Nebraska, and South Dakota broke that streak last night. The abortion rights amendment in the Sunshine State failed, even though a majority of Floridians voted for the measure — Florida required a supermajority for passage. Then, more losses came in SD and Nebraska, where citizens voted to enshrine the state’s 12-week ban, beating a competing measure that would have expanded abortion access. Meanwhile, in Arizona, New York, Maryland, Colorado, Missouri, and Nevada — among the 10 states that had abortion on the ballot — voters protected access to abortion. In a sign that Trump’s mixed messaging on the issue may have worked, some voters split their tickets to vote for both the former president and abortion protection measures. Although the issue wasn’t the galvanizing one Democrats hoped it would be, the fact that several measures passed shows that many voters favor access to reproductive health care. 

Related: Sarah McBride Is the First Openly Transgender Member of Congress (CNN)