Deck the halls with crystal balls because the major holiday sales predictions are in.

The National Retail Federation (NRF) last week discussed its forecast that total retail sales would increase between 2.5% and 3.5% in November and December, down from 3.8% in 2023 and below the 10-year, pre-pandemic average of 3.6%.

But Mark Mathews, executive director of research at the NRF, told reporters to keep in mind that this number is not adjusted for inflation, so the fact that goods prices are actually in deflation means the forecast reflects real sales growth.

“Retailers are having to sell more units at this point to be able to show performance above what they saw in the previous year,” he said.

He noted that while consumer sentiment has been lower, those measures are relatively poor indicators of spending. “They’re spending what’s in their wallet as opposed to what’s in their heads, which has been relatively beneficial for the economy,” he said.

Several major consulting firms in recent weeks have put out their own forecasts. Some are tentatively optimistic, like NRF, while others are slightly more pessimistic, like Bain & Company. For a quick summary of these numbers, here is Retail Brew’s one-stop shop for holiday predictions. That way, when the dust—or maybe snow—has settled, you can look back at how well expectations matched with reality.

Keep reading here.—AV

Sellers on eBay and other resale marketplaces sometimes describe the items they’re selling as “like new,” the implication being not only that the items are not smelly or damaged but that secondhand is second best. However, some resale items are from an era when things may have been better made, or are from brands that many consumers couldn’t afford to buy new, so perhaps it should come as no surprise that many consumers believe used items are better than new ones.

More than half of consumers (51%) agree with the statement that “secondhand items are typically higher quality than newly produced items sold at retailers today,” according to a new report from OfferUp, a resale marketplace for local transactions (à la Craigslist).

Keep reading here.—AAN

On Wednesdays, we wear pink spotlight Retail Brew’s readers. Want to be featured in an upcoming edition? Click here to introduce yourself.

Paige Brown is co-founder and chief brand officer at nutrition brand Groove.

How would you describe your job to someone who doesn’t work in retail? I am responsible for demanding a perspective from our consumers for our brand. Love it, hate it—doesn’t matter, but you better be feeling something about it, otherwise I’m not doing my job. Branding is all about establishing emotional connections.

One thing we can’t guess about your job from your LinkedIn profile? I experience failure on the daily. Marketing, especially for an e-commerce brand, is always evolving and you’re in a constant state of testing and learning. Most tests fail. It’s exhausting, but it makes the wins that much sweeter.

What’s your favorite project you’ve worked on? Groove has been in the market for less time than it took us to develop it. Building this brand has been the most enjoyable and rewarding project so far in my career. I was able to work hand in hand with likable, seasoned creatives that I admire immensely and learned so much from. Now that it’s finally out in the world, I take a step back and think, “Whoa, I genuinely love every freaking thing about this,” and can feel my confidence rise.

Keep reading here.—EC