Post-election chill for climate startups

Market upswing should lift fund returns, food and beverage sector hungry for deals & more
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The Weekend Pitch
November 17, 2024
The Daily Pitch is powered by PitchBook’s industry-defining research and best-in-class data
(Caroline Suttie/PitchBook News)
The "Valley of Death" serves as the title of a 1968 Western, several World War II battle sites and a song by a Swedish heavy metal band.

In the venture world, it refers to the period when a startup is spending money—on research, personnel, laboratory or office space—but isn’t yet generating significant revenue.

For the climate tech startups now navigating this stage, it’s going to be a rough six months. As the industry adjusts to a new energy policy regime under President-elect Donald Trump, there’ll be a chill in the air for project financing and major fundraising for companies in the line of fire.

I'm Rosie Bradbury, and this is The Weekend Pitch. You can reach me at rosie.bradbury@pitchbook.com or on X @_RosieBradbury.

Potentially on the chopping block are key provisions of the US Inflation Reduction Act, the budget of the Department of Energy and Treasury guidelines on tax credits. Offshore wind and hydrogen projects are two areas that are thought by VCs to be especially precarious.

And despite Trump’s cozy relationship with Tesla founder Elon Musk, the transition team is already planning to scrap a $7,500 EV tax credit for American consumers, according to Reuters.

“It’s going to be challenging,” said Abe Yokell, managing partner at Congruent Ventures. “My general advice is, make sure you aren’t raising right now.”
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Trivia

(Ross Tomei/Getty Images)
Buy-now, pay-later company Klarna filed for its long-awaited IPO earlier this week at a valuation that could reach up to $20 billion. The e-commerce company has built a global reputation with its e-commerce solutions, but in which European city does Klarna hold its headquarters?

A) Amsterdam
B) Copenhagen
C) Helsinki
D) Stockholm

Find your answer at the bottom of The Weekend Pitch!
 

Market upswing likely
to lift fund returns

(Urupong/Getty Images)
Private fund returns continue to lag historical averages, but a rising tide is coming, according to our latest Global Fund Performance Report.

Interest rate cuts in the US and Europe, as well as stimulus in China, have lifted assets across the board. Our Private Capital Barometers point to positive recent performance across PE, VC, private debt, infrastructure and natural resources.

But back in Q1, the most recent quarter with available fund performance data, real assets was the only strategy to beat its 10-year return. For PE, returns remained in the single digits, and VC funds stayed in the red. The recovery in exits and deal activity may translate to better Q2 returns.
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Food and beverage dealmaking
keeps its momentum in Q3

(Westend61/Getty Images)
The food and beverage consumer packaged goods industry has shown resilience in the first three quarters of 2024 despite economic headwinds—reaching an estimated 385 PE deals compared to 2021's peak of 531, according to our recent report on the sector.

The momentum has primarily been fueled by robust dealmaking in alcohol, baked goods and celebrity brands, with a notable shift toward smaller deals and growth rounds rather than large acquisitions. Firms continue to build on existing platforms through add-on deals.
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Quote/Unquote

“AI’s ascension is paired with consumers increasingly expecting far more assistance and quality from what they invest their time and money in.”

—Kirsten Green, the head of consumer-focused VC firm Forerunner Ventures, in a blog post announcing the firm’s latest $500 million fund. Read more about Forerunner here.
 

Stay tuned

Keep an eye out for these insights and research reports coming out this week:
  • Q3 2024 Retail Fintech Report
  • Analyst Note: Top 50 PE-Backed IPO Candidates
  • Q3 2024 Enterprise Fintech Report
  • Q3 2024 Biopharma Report
  • Q3 2024 European VC Valuations
  • Q3 2024 Medtech Report
 

Trivia

Answer: D

Klarna is based in Stockholm, Sweden, though the company has offices across Europe, North America, and even New Zealand and Australia. The company filed its IPO in the US. Read more about Klarna and trends among IPOs by European companies here.
 

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This edition of The Weekend Pitch was written by Rosie Bradbury and Nadine Manske. It was edited by James Thorne and Ron Prichard.

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