Finimize - 🦃 Chipmakers give thanks

What’s going on here?

Some positive Thanksgiving vibes may have helped shares of chip equipment companies on Thursday – but a surprise report about a possible reprieve in sanctions probably didn’t hurt.

What does this mean?

The US and China have been butting heads on semiconductors, from the machines that make them to the microchips themselves. In May, the US announced sweeping trade taxes – a.k.a. tariffs – on $18 billion worth of Chinese imports, including far tougher restrictions on the semiconductor industry. And that was just for starters: a handful of Chinese firms were earmarked to be blacklisted altogether. But according to fresh reports, the US is now considering less-severe sanctions. Now, the details aren’t final, but the mere whiff of a softer stance had investors gobbling up chip-related stocks between bites of turkey and stuffing. Good holiday cheer, indeed.

Why should I care?

For markets: Running the numbers.

Chipmaker Tokyo Electron was up 6% on Thursday, while Europe’s ASML was initially up 4%. And that makes sense: according to investment bank Jefferies, ASML had predicted a 30% drop in its Chinese revenue next year because of incoming sanctions. And any easing of those blockages could help boost that sales flow.

The bigger picture: Six of one, half a dozen of the other.

There’s been plenty of grandstanding about the incoming US president’s plans to introduce tough new tariffs. But it’s worth remembering that the outgoing party announced tariffs of its own just six months ago, as well as the sanctions that are likely to be announced next week. And so despite all the bluster, neither party is likely to be all-in on tariffs or all-out.

What’s going on here?

French government bonds yielded more than Greek ones for the first time ever on Thursday.

What does this mean?

A government bond’s yield is a way of knowing how much interest investors think the country should have to pay to borrow money: the higher it is, the riskier the proposition, in their eyes. Now, Greece is one of the riskiest countries to lend to in Europe, so when the yield of French 10-year government bonds rose above that of the same Greek bonds – albeit briefly – it was a turn-up for the books.

Why should I care?

For markets: Quelle horreur.

The bond market offers clues about how investors see a country’s economy and finances – and with France’s appearing to be on shaky ground, investors are ditching the country’s bonds, sending their prices down and yields up. Sure, the government has proposed €60 billion ($63 billion) worth of spending cuts and tax hikes to balance its books. Problem is, it doesn’t seem to have enough support to turn those plans into action. And while stopgap measures might delay the inevitable, running up yet more debt and getting on the wrong side of European Union’s budgeting rules could be a recipe for disaster – and investors don’t seem to want any part of that.

The bigger picture: A strong Europe needs a strong France.

Fresh data on Thursday showed Europe-wide consumer confidence dropped another rung lower in November. That’s probably not surprising, given confidence in Germany and France – the bloc’s economic powerhouses – is down in the dumps. To get the continent back on track, those two countries need to be firing on all cylinders. Trouble is, between a gridlocked French government and a probable recession in Germany, “back on track” seems a long way off.