Tangle - The fall of Assad in Syria.

I’m Isaac Saul, and this is Tangle: an independent, nonpartisan, subscriber-supported politics newsletter that summarizes the best arguments from across the political spectrum on the news of the day — then “my take.”

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Responding to your feedback.

Today, I'm using our reader question section to respond to some feedback to yesterday's edition on the killing of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson. This is just an initial response — we’ll be responding to the feedback in full this Friday.

Quick hits.

1. After a five-day manhunt, police arrested Luigi Mangione, 26, in Altoona, Pennsylvania, and charged him with the murder of UnitedHealth executive Brian Thompson. A McDonald’s employee spotted a person who looked similar to the photos of the suspect in the shooting and called the police, leading to Mangione’s arrest. (The arrest)
2. A New York City jury found Daniel Penny not guilty of criminally negligent homicide in the death of Jordan Neely in an incident on a subway car in 2023. (The verdict)
3. A Nevada commissioner ruled that Rupert Murdoch could not change his family’s trust to consolidate control of Fox News with his son Lachlan. The commissioner said that Murdoch must honor the original terms of the trust, dividing control of the company equally between his four oldest children. (The ruling)
4. The Haiti Prime Minister’s office accused a gang leader and his associates of killing over 180 people, primarily elderly men and women, in a massacre over the weekend in the capital city of Port-au-Prince. The gang leader reportedly believed that elderly people in the area were practicing witchcraft and making his child sick. (The report)
5. South Korea’s justice ministry barred President Yoon Suk Yeol from leaving the country while he is investigated for his decision to declare martial law last week. (The decision)

Today's topic.

Syria. On Sunday, ousted Syrian President Bashar al-Assad fled the country and was granted political asylum in Russia. Assad's departure marks the end of his regime, a dramatic turn of events following a ten-day offensive by rebel forces starting with the capture of Aleppo on November 30.

Editor’s note: The situation in Syria is one of the most complex geopolitical issues in the world and continues to evolve by the hour. Today’s newsletter is an attempt to catch you up on the last few weeks in a concise manner, with links to additional context or information for those interested.

Back up: The Assad family has ruled Syria for over fifty years. In 2011, protests against Bashar al-Assad’s government spun out into civil war, with Russia and Iran supporting Assad and the Syrian government while the United States and its allies in Europe and the Middle East backed anti-government rebel groups. During the power struggle in 2013, the Islamic State began seizing control of territory in Syria. The U.S. and its allies then began bombing Islamic State targets in Syria in response, while also supporting the Syrian Democratic Forces (a Kurdish-led coalition of U.S.-backed militias). 

Over the last decade of fighting, the Assad government has recaptured most of the territory it had lost early in the civil war, and it has repeatedly been accused of using chemical weapons against its own citizens. In 2013, then-President Barack Obama asked Congress to authorize targeted airstrikes against the Assad regime following reports of chemical weapons attacks on civilians. Before that vote, the U.S. and Russia reached an agreement to eliminate Syria’s chemical weapons stores, though Obama faced some criticism for saying that Assad’s use of chemical weapons would be a “red line” for the U.S., and then not enforcing that line once Assad crossed it. 

Assad has maintained power relatively unchecked for the past four years. However, the surprise offensive by the Sunni extremist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) has reset the conflict. Russian, Iranian, and Hezbollah forces — who have traditionally supported the Assad regime — did not come to aid their longtime ally, and the rebel forces quickly recaptured territory across the country (some foreign policy experts believe these forces have been stretched thin by wars in Ukraine and Israel). When HTS forces took the capital Damascus over the weekend, Assad fled the country. Rebel forces are now freeing prisoners jailed by the Assad regime as they recapture territory.

Now what? Deep-rooted factional warring in Syria complicates the country’s future. The global affairs newsletter International Intrigue outlined the dynamics undergirding the evolving power struggle:

• Russia is invested in protecting Assad's control of Syria, as it offers them a strategic Mediterranean naval base.
• Iran uses Syria to transport weapons to its proxy militias Hezbollah and Hamas.
• Israel wants to contain Hezbollah’s strength, in part by fighting shadow wars in Syria. 
• Turkey is fighting Kurd forces in Syria and trying to staunch a Syrian refugee crisis.
• The U.S. and its allies have long supported rebel forces against the Assad regime, which has often been associated with Islamic extremists, while also regularly bombing Islamic State strongholds.

All the while, rebel groups have named Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, the founder of HTS, as leader of the transitional government. Al-Jolani once fought in the Iraqi insurgency against the U.S. while a member of the group that became the Islamic State. The U.S. still has a $10 million bounty out on him. HTS was formerly known as Jabhat al-Nusra or the al-Nusra Front, and declared loyalty to al-Qaeda before breaking its ties with the group in 2016. Al-Jolani has since tried to rebrand his image on the global stage, publicly breaking ties with extremist groups and promising to protect ethnic minorities in Syria.

During President-elect Donald Trump’s first term, the U.S. largely withdrew from Syria. As of 2023, only around 900 troops remained. The United States' limited presence paired with Assad fleeing now leaves a major power vacuum in the country.

Today, we're going to take a look at some arguments about what this means for Syria, the U.S., and the region more broadly. Then, my take.

Agreed.

Commentators on the right, left, and abroad celebrate the end of Assad’s regime while also recognizing that Syria’s future remains murky at best. Many, however, maintain hope that this moment could be the start of a more positive chapter for the country.

What the right is saying.

• The right is glad to see Assad ousted but acknowledges that the next regime may be no more desirable. 
• Some say that the U.S. has no choice but to play a role in Syria’s next chapter.

National Review’s editors explored “the fall of Assad.”

“In addition to his savage rule at home, Assad became close allies to some of the worst actors on the international stage, primarily Russia and Iran. Iran specifically used Syria as a route through which to smuggle weapons to the terrorist proxy Hezbollah. In recent weeks, both allies had seemed to abandon support for Assad,” the editors wrote. “It remains unclear whether that was due to their having seen the writing on the wall or because they are now in less of a position to intervene — Russia because of its invasion of Ukraine, and Iran because of the blows Israel has dealt over the past year.

“At this point, it’s difficult to know what to expect. Assad was a tyrant, but those fighting Assad were not one monolithic, freedom-seeking rebel group. The rebels are a collection of lots of different rebel groups with different grievances against the regime — and this includes jihadis,” the editors said. “There was always a realist argument that as bad as Assad was, we have no idea what will happen without him in control, with the biggest fear being that Islamist groups could seize power in different areas of Syria and gain access to abandoned weapons.”

In The New York Post, David Adesnik wrote about “what’s at stake for America in Syria after Bashar al-Assad.”

“The people are celebrating, tearing down posters of Assad and statues of his equally vicious father, who founded the regime. But the driving force behind these changes is a terrorist organization,” Adesnik said. “Americans across the political spectrum want no part in Syria’s internal conflicts, but we have interests we can’t afford to ignore. The first is the fate of American hostages in Assad’s prisons, like Austin Tice, as well as the remains of those who died in captivity, like Majd Kamalmaz. Next, there is the matter of Syria’s chemical weapons, which should not fall into the hands of a terrorist organization regardless of what it promises.”

“The US military has also spent more than a decade working with local partners in northeast Syria to dismantle the ISIS caliphate and then prevent an ISIS comeback. Those local partners — mainly Kurdish, but also some Arab — happen to control the region that is home to most of Syria’s oil and gas reserves. It is also the country’s agricultural center. Without the cooperation of Washington and its local partners, Syria’s new government will not be able to tap those resources,” Adesnik wrote. “Will HTS allow Syrians to establish political parties and independent media? Will there be elections?... Washington’s careful use of incentives may help direct Syria toward moderation and away from an Islamist dictatorship.”

What the left is saying.

• The left welcomes Assad’s exit and suggests the United States should take an active role in helping rebuild the country. 
• Some say that the regime’s collapse could foreshadow similar futures for other autocrats. 

The Washington Post editorial board argued “the U.S. needs to help build a new Syria.”

“To Mr. Assad we say: Good riddance. The speed of his downfall is testament to the illegitimacy of his awful rule, marked by mass executions, torture and support for terrorism. During the past 13-plus years of civil war, the regime depended on Russia, which carried out devastating airstrikes, Iran and its Lebanese proxy group, Hezbollah,” the board wrote. “For Syrians, the nightmare of Mr. Assad’s misrule is finally over. But euphoria over his ouster must be tempered by questions over what comes next.”

“Before Mr. Assad’s fall, President-elect Donald Trump posted; ‘DO NOT GET INVOLVED!’ But America is involved. Some 900 U.S. troops and an undisclosed number of military contractors are operating in northeastern Syria near Iraq,” the board said. “The Middle East badly needs a success story: a pluralistic, democratic Arab country committed to upholding human rights. For more than 50 years, Syria under the Assad family regime epitomized so much that is wrong about the region. With engaged diplomacy, the United States can help write a brighter next chapter for this strategically located, and long-suffering, country.”

In The Atlantic, Anne Applebaum wrote “the Syrian regime collapsed gradually—and then suddenly.”

“Then, after a well-organized, highly motivated set of armed opponents took the city of Aleppo on November 29, many of the regime’s defenders abruptly stopped fighting. Assad vanished. The scenes that followed today in Damascus—the toppling of statues, the people taking selfies at the dictator’s palace—are the same ones that will unfold in Caracas, Tehran, or Moscow on the day the soldiers of those regimes lose their faith in the leadership, and the public loses their fear of those soldiers too,” Applebaum said. “The similarities among these places are real, because Russia, Iran, Venezuela, North Korea, and, until now, Syria all belong to an informal network of autocracies.”

“But all such ‘eternal’ regimes have one fatal flaw: Soldiers and police officers are members of the public too. They have relatives who suffer, cousins and friends who experience political repression and the effects of economic collapse. They, too, have doubts, and they, too, can become insecure. In Syria, we have just seen the result,” Applebaum wrote. “I don’t know whether today’s events will bring peace and stability to Syria, let alone freedom and democracy… Nevertheless, the end of the Assad regime creates something new, and not only in Syria…The fall of a Russian- and Iranian-backed regime offers, suddenly, the possibility of change.”

What international writers are saying

• Many writers from the Arab world argue Syria is well positioned to realize a more hopeful future with Assad gone.
• Others suggest that fundamental realities of the country could continue to hold it back. 

In Arab News, Ghassan Ibrahim said “Syria has a bright future without Assad.”

“We are seeing the beginnings of a new Middle East, free from the external interventions that have long troubled the region. What we have observed over the past few days, with Syrian opposition forces advancing in the north and gradually entering cities without destruction or bloodshed, signifies the transition to a new phase,” Ibrahim wrote. “This phase does not involve reopening old grievances with Syrian figures from the previous government, nor does it aim to provoke civil wars. This sentiment is shared not only by the opposition but also by many former officials who recognize the necessity of moving beyond Bashar Assad’s rule.”

“Syria should foster relations with both the East and the West, focusing on reconstruction — not just rebuilding infrastructure but also reshaping the entire state. There is a dire need for comprehensive changes in various sectors, from educational curricula to the internal operations of governmental institutions,” Ibrahim said. “Syria requires a new approach to service delivery, emphasizing wise management that improves performance and combats the widespread corruption that has plagued the nation.”

In Foreign Policy, Arash Reisinezhad wrote “Syria is again a victim of its geography.”

“As much as the civil war was a sectarian and ideological conflict, it was also always a war created and fueled by the country’s fundamental geography,” Reisinezhad said. “The country lacks significant natural barriers, both within its territory and along its borders. To the west lies the Mediterranean, a route for trade—and thus for military invasions. To the east lies the Euphrates River Valley. The south is bordered by desert and the north by the plains at the southern foothills of the Taurus Mountains. In essence, Syria’s geography offers neither external defenses to deter invasions nor internal strongholds as a last line of defense.”

“One of the most significant roots of the absence of a strong national authority lies in the fragmented geography of this country. In the absence of national sovereignty, the country’s national identity has also remained weak. As a result, Syria has become a target for attacks and conspiracies by other regional and international powers. More importantly, viable and accessible alternatives can disrupt its territorial integrity. For this reason, governments have resorted to iron-fisted repression to prevent potential internal collapse.”

My take.

Reminder: "My take" is a section where I give myself space to share my own personal opinion. If you have feedback, criticism or compliments, don't unsubscribe. Write in by replying to this email, or leave a comment.

• I’m not an expert on Syria, so I can’t say how this situation will evolve — I don’t think anybody really can.
• However, I am confident that the power vacuum will be filled soon, and lots of different interests are at play.
• I’m curious what Trump will do once in power; he’s promised to pull out of the region, but I’m skeptical.

Let me start by saying that I am not an expert on Syria. This is one of the most complicated geopolitical situations in the world, and despite following Middle East politics closely I have little idea about what's going to happen, whether this will be good for the Syrian people long term, or even why the fall of the Assad regime happened so quickly (I’ve read a lot of theories, primarily Iran and Russia being stretched thin in other conflicts, but none of them are totally satisfactory to me).

Anyway, I know a lot of people will suddenly become Syria experts this week — but not me. I'm willing to admit I don't understand this country well, despite my best efforts. But I understand U.S. geopolitics, so I’ll share a few observations about the region I feel confident in.

First, I think we've seen over and over again that power vacuums don't last long — primarily because global powers are always ready to fill them. Russia, Iran, the U.S., Israel and Europe may feel differently about Assad and Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, but they all loathe a country like Syria being leaderless. They will want someone to negotiate with, a government to leverage, a person in charge. As for who that person will be, all signs point to al-Jolani.

Second, no country is a monolith. And of all countries, Syria is one of the least monolithic. It is one of the most sectarian and divided places on earth, which means the Syrian people will differ greatly in their reactions to Assad's fall. Of course, many are celebrating — Assad was a brutal and authoritarian leader. By some estimates, he has killed 600,000 of his own people, and more than 14 million Syrians have been displaced in the last 11 years of civil war. Dissenters and religious minorities were disappeared. Freedoms were warped and oppressed. I think if I lived in Syria, I'd be on the streets in joyous celebration.

But a future with Al-Jolani in charge is uncertain. Syria's sects — and its lack of political order — make it ripe for collapse. If I were in Syria, I’d also be worried over how the aforementioned power vacuum is filled. Al-Jolani has been accused of committing atrocities himself, and all we have is his word that he won't commit them again. Color me skeptical. I'm sure many Syrians feel the same.

Third, there's always a lot of talk in the U.S. about us playing principal across the globe. But Syria serves as one of the best reminders that we are far from the only foreign interventionist. Russia, Iran, China, Turkey, Israel, and a good chunk of the European Union are all invested in the outcome here for different, self-interested reasons. In particular, Turkey is already seizing villages in northern Syria. And inside Syria, the warring factions are a reminder that the Arab world — the divisions among Muslim sects and Kurds and Armenians and more — are enough to destabilize a country without any intervention from the West. 

Fourth, with all that said, I think it’s pretty clear that Assad’s fall is a positive development for the U.S., Israel and the West's interests in the immediate term, while it's rather troublesome news for the Russia-Iran-China axis of power. As Dexter Filkins put it in an interview with Adam Rubenstein, Iran had Israel surrounded just 18 months ago: Assad in Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Shi’ite militias in Iraq, the Houthis in Yemen, and Hamas in Gaza. Now Assad — long supported by Russia and opposed by the U.S., and also someone who has greenlit Iranian weapons transfers into Lebanon — is gone. Hezbollah has been seriously diminished, and Hamas has been decimated.

Fifth, and finally, is the question of what President-elect Donald Trump will do. He has promised not to get involved with Syria, but it's not a promise I take seriously — the U.S. can wield a whole lot of influence with relatively few soldiers on the ground. Trump wants a grand bargain for the Middle East — an Abraham Accords 2.0, the ultimate deal — and he doesn't have a prayer of getting one that doesn’t involve negotiating with the future Syrian leader, whomever that is.

Again, all of these trends come back to a simple reality: Syria is now being taken over by a relatively unknown entity at an especially fraught time for the region. Take Israel as one example: Israelis might be glad to see Assad flee, but one potential replacement is a group of Sunni Islamists who broke off from al-Qaeda. They are not exactly friendly toward Israel, and any intensity in the fighting to the country’s north will present its own challenges and dangers.

I don't know what's next. I'm not sure many people do. I'm glad to see Assad's regime come to an end and want to cling to hope for the glimmer of opportunity the Syrian people have — but the new, unstable, unknown territory the country finds itself in does not inspire confidence. 

Take the survey: Do you think the next regime in Syria will be better or worse? Let us know!

Disagree? That's okay. My opinion is just one of many. Write in and let us know why, and we'll consider publishing your feedback.

Your questions, answered.

In our inbox, on social media, and through personal channels, there was an outpouring of reactions to yesterday's newsletter. I want to address some of it here.

In our inbox, on social media, and through personal channels, I received an outpouring of reactions to yesterday's newsletter on the murder of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson. I want to address some of them here.

Common feedback: Bombings of abortion clinics or attacks on trans rights activists are already happening.

This is true. When I wrote "The left might consider how long it'll be until abortion-providing doctors or trans activists or Democratic politicians start regularly being mowed down in the street in the name of striking fear into evildoers," my emphasis was on regularly. In the last 50 years, pro-life extremists have committed 11 murders targeting abortion providers — that's more than enough already, and if your point is that there was less outcry over those killings than this one, your point is well taken. Still, I’m not rooting for more murders, and I think celebrating Thompson’s killing very obviously invites that possibility.

Common feedback: Actually, violence does work. Look at how Anthem Blue Cross Blue Shield backed off its plan to cover fewer surgeries with anesthesia.

I think what Anthem did was mostly a public relations move that will be temporary, and regardless, it does not amount to real change. What’s more, I’d wager good money that Anthem re-institutes this policy in a few months when everyone moves on. I also think they were replying more to social media backlash (a peaceful form of protest!) than to murders in the street. And, for whatever it’s worth, Vox’s Eric Levitz made a good argument that the proposed change would actually be a good way to reduce the cost of premiums. So it’s not exactly a cause for celebration that they backed off, and it’s a reminder that health insurers aren’t the only ones responsible for our dysfunctional system.

Common feedback: However you slice it, it's good to send a message to corporations and the uber-wealthy that we won't tolerate their corruption.

I want corporations and the ultra-wealthy to care about our interests, too — but aren’t there a ton of other options between “do something” and “murder”? And what about the message this killing sends to disaffected young men? I really don't understand why it's hard to imagine how swathes of society celebrating a lone gunman killing a "bad guy" could inspire copycats and more violence. And it won't be long until some of those bad guys are people you think don’t deserve it.

Common feedback: The whole point is that political organization and pressure has not worked. That's why people are resorting to violence or celebrating violence.

My goals are aligned with many of my critics: Make healthcare more affordable and accessible. It wasn't so long ago that people with pre-existing conditions couldn't get any insurance coverage from private insurers — Obamacare changed that. That didn't happen because a 26-year-old shot a CEO in the back. It changed because people organized politically, supported politicians and groups who shared their interests, and applied political pressure. It changed through legislation, long-game planning, and organization. The idea that we’ve reached a point where violence is the only way to change the system doesn’t pass the basic sniff test for me. 

Common feedback: You are out of touch with how awful things are for many Americans.

I’ve experienced our system in similar rage-inducing ways that many of you have — and I shared one example in my take yesterday. I think it is a cop-out to suggest that all or even most Americans struggling to make ends meet or navigate our healthcare system are so despondent they support extrajudicial killings. I would wager most do not, and survey data indicates that I’d be right. If you’re going to defend this action sincerely, you need to defend it on the merits, without presuming working-class people or even healthcare activists approve of an act of violence like this. 

I have many more thoughts about this shooting, and your responses, and we are going to be doing a members-only Friday edition on them this week. But I wanted to reply to those overarching criticisms as soon as I could.

Reminder: Friday editions are for members only. You can subscribe to become one here.

Want to have a question answered in the newsletter? You can reply to this email (it goes straight to our inbox) or fill out this form.

Under the radar.

The latest results from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey show a drastic shift in partisan views of the economy since the election. Democrats’ economic sentiment rating dropped from 91.4 in October to 70.9 in December, while Republicans’ rose from 53.6 to 81.6. Democrats were pessimistic about the future outlook for the economy, registering their lowest rating in this category since the start of the pandemic while Republicans notched their highest mark since President-elect Donald Trump’s first term. Although the latest survey found that overall economic sentiment rose to its highest level since April, the party affiliation results strongly suggest that political views are driving economic perceptions. Axios has the story.

Numbers.

• 1970. The year Hafez al-Assad became president of Syria. 
• 2000. The year Bashar al-Assad assumed the presidency after his father’s death. 
• 24.3 million. Syria’s approximate population as of 2024.
• 16.7 million. The estimated number of Syrians in need of humanitarian assistance, according to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. 
• 7.2 million. The estimated number of internally displaced people in Syria, according to the United Nations.  
• 6.3 million. The estimated number of Syrian refugees. 
• 613,407. The estimated number of people killed in Syria between the start of the civil war in 2011 and 2023, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. 
• 162,390. The estimated number of civilian deaths during that time period. 
• 336. The estimated number of chemical weapons attacks launched by the Syrian government and affiliated forces, according to a 2019 report by the Global Public Policy Institute. 

The extras.

• One year ago today we had just released a Friday edition with 10 thoughts on the situation in Israel.
• The most clicked link in yesterday’s newsletter was the dismissal of the Daniel Penny manslaughter charge.
• Nothing to do with politics: For the skeptics and the curious, try out The Conspiracy Test.
• Yesterday’s survey: 3,793 readers responded to our survey on the UnitedHealthcare CEO shooting with 53% expressing disdain for the shooter and sympathy for the victim. “I worked with Brian Thompson, he was a good man. No one deserves to be mowed down in the street,” one respondent said.

Have a nice day.

In 1939, sisters Helena and Barbara Stefaniak saw their home, Poland, overtaken by the Nazis. They were placed in separate forced labor camps, although they were miraculously able to reunite after the war. Later, they separately immigrated to the United States. In recent years, age and distance have made travel to visit each other difficult. However, the non-profit Wish of a Lifetime sponsored a trip for the now-96 and 100-years old sisters to spend time with each other. People has their story.

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