For 32 years, the National Retail Federation (NRF) — the lobbying group representing major retailers in the United States — has produced the "National Retail Security Survey." The survey, widely cited by media outlets, attempts to estimate the total retail "shrink" in the industry by collecting data from major retailers.

Shrink is an industry term for merchandise that cannot be sold because it is misplaced, spoiled, or stolen. Historically "external theft," commonly known as shoplifting, has accounted for approximately one-third of total shrink. Around two-thirds of shrink is attributable to internal theft by employees, inventory control failures, and other issues.

But this year, the NRF announced it would not release its annual survey. What happened?

Mary McGinty, NRF vice president of communications and public affairs, claims that "a broad study about retail shrink is no longer sufficient for capturing the key challenges and needs of the industry." In other words, the survey did not reinforce the industry's preferred narrative that shoplifting is a growing problem that demands an aggressive state and federal response.

The 2023 release, which covers data from retailers about 2022, found that total shrink in the industry amounted to 1.6% of sales. 36% of that shrink was attributable to external theft or shoplifting. That is identical to the total shrink in the industry the survey found in 2019. The survey has found shrink has been at roughly the same levels for decades. In 2011, for example, the survey found shrink amounted to 1.5% of total retail sales. In 2005, it was 1.6%. The percentage of shrink due to shoplifting has also remained steady.

On Tuesday, in lieu of the usual survey, the NRF released a report called "The Impact of Retail Theft & Violence 2024," which covered the retail industry in 2023. Instead of collecting data from retailers about the shrink as a percentage of retail sales, as the NRF had done for decades, the new report surveyed "senior loss prevention and security executives" about shoplifting trends. The NRF claims that, based on the survey, there was "a 93% increase in the average number of shoplifting incidents per year in 2023 versus 2019." That includes a 23% increase from 2022 to 2023. The new survey also found "a 90% increase in dollar loss due to shoplifting" between 2019 and 2023.

There are a few reasons to be skeptical of this data. First, by presenting the information in raw terms, it does not account for the growth of the overall economy. Barring a recession, each year, there are more stores, more people, and more sales. So even if shoplifting remains the same as a percentage of total sales (the old way that the NRF presented the data), the total number of shoplifting incidents and value of merchandise stolen (the new way that the NRF presents the data) will go up.

But that is only a partial explanation for the numbers in the new report, because the U.S. retail industry has not grown 93% since 2019. According to the new NRF report, there was about a 70% increase in both shoplifting incidents and dollars lost due to shoplifting between 2019 and 2022. This contradicts all the NRF's previous reports, based on actual data, which found that shrink as a percentage of sales was flat between 2019 and 2022. If that's the case, you would expect the total dollars lost to shrink to track the growth of the retail industry over that time, which was about 20%.

The new NRF report also contradicts outside estimates of shoplifting trends between 2019 and 2023. The Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ), a non-partisan think tank, found that the shoplifting rate in 2023 was 10% lower than in 2019. The CCJ's data is consistent with data collected from police departments by the Real Time Crime Index, which shows theft (which includes shoplifting and other property crimes) in 2023 was below 2019 levels. FBI data also shows property crime decreasing between 2019 and 2023.

Jeff Asher, an analyst specializing in criminal justice data, told Popular Information he was skeptical of the numbers in the new NRF report. Asher said the NRF's findings should be "taken with a grain of salt" because they are "based on a survey of impressions rather than any meticulously collected evidence."

The new NRF report acknowledges that retailers do not "have a unified industry database collecting retail crime data," and many retailers lack "the resources or capabilities to collect and track retail theft." Yet the NRF still issued a report claiming shoplifting has increased 93% in four years.

Popular Information contacted the NRF to ask questions about the new report and its methodology. The NRF provided additional background information about the report but declined to answer any questions.

Why shoplifting data matters

Why does it matter if the retail industry produces reports with unreliable data about shoplifting? The NRF is already using this report to advocate for more aggressive prosecution and longer terms of incarceration for people caught shoplifting.

The report encourages "state lawmakers" to "review and amend current criminal statutes that relate to retail thefts and crimes." Specifically, the NRF supports the "aggregation of thefts," which would allow people to be charged with felonies for stealing small amounts of merchandise. The NRF also supports "stronger penalties and consequences" for people "establishing, operating, and supporting" organized retail crime (OCR). OCR, which refers to shoplifting on behalf of a criminal organization, is a poorly defined concept that can be used to more severely punish individuals.

Who profits from shoplifting hype?

The new NRF report is sponsored by Sensormatic, a company that "empowers retailers to fight global shrink and retail crime with data-led merchandise protection solutions supported by artificial intelligence (AI), radio-frequency identification (RFID), and advanced monitoring hardware."

The company sells those plastic tags that attach to clothing, the sensors that go off when they forget to remove those plastic tags at the register, and a bunch of other products intended to prevent shoplifting. It offers a video monitoring service that "provides real-time notifications of suspicious group movements, enabling a more preventative approach to loss prevention." Notably, Sensormatic also sells a product promising "fitting room visibility" that it calls Fitting Room 360°.

It seems unlikely that Sensormatic would be interested in sponsoring a survey that found that shoplifting was not a growing problem.