Welcome to the final newsletter of 2024. A few stats since Anthony Pompliano and I launched Opening Bell Daily 9 months ago:

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Onward!

Market catalysts in 4 charts

Nothing moved markets more this year than Donald Trump, the Federal Reserve, and artificial intelligence. 

Asset prices have whipsawed on comments and actions centered around the two newsmakers, while the investors have yet to grow weary of an AI trade that’s ballooned to meteoric heights. 

The influence of the three catalysts won’t likely dissipate in 2025.

The Trump Trade

Since the election, political commentators across the aisle have concluded that Donald Trump won the White House largely due to economic factors like inflation and housing affordability. 

Whether the president-elect is the best individual to fix those issues is an open question, but investors have expressed their optimism — before and after November 5 — for Trump 2.0 by bidding up risk-assets and growth stocks.

Bitcoin, meanwhile, has soared from $69,000 to $94,000 since the day before the election.

After a rally earlier in the year when regulators approved trading for spot bitcoin ETFs, the cryptocurrency moved mostly sideways through the first ten months of the year. 

Crypto investors continue to view Trump positively, as the president-elect is interested in launching a US bitcoin strategic stockpile.

It’s the second year in a row that the cryptocurrency has secured a more than 100% annual return.

The long arm of the Fed

While Chairman Jerome Powell has cut interest rates by 100 basis points since September, inflation, his team’s messaging has turned decidedly hawkish.

Inflation is moving in the wrong direction and bond traders remain mixed on the forecast for the year ahead — on account of potential ramifications of tariffs as well as the uncertain Fed outlook. 

At the final FOMC meeting of the year on December 18, the S&P 500 declined 2.95%, the largest drop on the day of a Fed meeting since 2001.

No slowing AI

Stock indexes broke record after record in 2024, and most of the winnings have been allocated to tech names that are part of the AI boom. 

As the chart shows, the AI-fueled Magnificent Seven stocks — Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Apple, Alphabet and Tesla — this year vastly outperformed the benchmark S&P 500 as well as the tech-heavy Nasdaq. 

Strategists across Wall Street expect companies to keep spending on AI technology, infrastructure and energy, which should push the theme forward into the new year.

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Traders see 23% odds of a recession before 2026, according to Kalshi, the biggest US prediction market:

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