THE GROOVE - Six Art World Predictions for 2025

THE GROOVE

Welcome to the 213th issue of The Groove.

I am Maria Brito, an art advisor, curator, and author based in New York City.

If somebody forwarded you this email, please subscribe here, to get The Groove in your inbox for free every Tuesday.

Find me here or on Instagram, X, or Facebook.

As 2025 approaches, the art world is poised for changes. From the resurgence of regional art movements to the growing influence of Gulf collectors and a renewed emphasis on sustainability and craftsmanship, this year promises to challenge conventions and reshape narratives. Let’s dive in.

After the massive boom of the ultra-contemporary category (which according to some is art created by artists born after 1974, and to others it means art made by anyone under 40 years old), collectors, especially those with long-term investment views, may begin to prefer more stable, established artists over the volatile younger generation. This shift could be motivated by economic factors or a desire for art with enduring value, rather than the short-term excitement that often accompanies emerging artists.

I have been contacted a couple of times by collectors who bought (not through me) hundreds of young artists in the last five years and now don’t know what to do with their acquisitions. They’ve told me that not only are the current auction prices well below what they paid in primary but also, they all have started to look the same or they’ve gotten tired of seeing their works over and over on Instagram.

While it is true that artists of your own generation offer a compelling view that you can relate to, collectors will be focusing once again on artists with longer resumes (not artists with five-year careers whose works sell at the mid-six figures). This will force galleries to reduce their emphasis on signing young artists who haven't yet proven their staying power in the market and to vet out buyers who want to speculate rather than collect.

It’s not that I don’t love emerging artists, I do. But when there are 350 relatively good and very good shows in New York City at any given time and they have to rotate every 6-8 weeks, that’s 2,800 shows a year in one city alone. (Add to that LA, London, Paris, Hong Kong, all the major markets). Assuming about half of those exhibits are of younger artists, as a rough estimate, it makes it hard for collectors to discern what’s worth their attention and money.

Major museums and institutions are becoming more selective in the artists they choose to acquire and exhibit. If a significant number of emerging artists fail to gain institutional attention, it may affect their viability in the market, causing galleries to rethink their representation of them.

AI tools will continue to disrupt traditional art-making processes. Beyond generative Al artworks, expect a rise in Al-assisted curation in galleries and museums, where algorithms analyze trends, audience preferences, and even predict the potential success of exhibits. This could create debates about the balance between creative intuition and data-driven decisions.

I’ve written before about how much textile art was present in art fairs, exhibitions, auctions and art fairs during 2024. This isn’t only a reaction to the digital boom, but a renewed appreciation for traditional craftsmanship. Ceramics and other artisanal media will also gain prominence as collectors seek tactile, labor-intensive works in contrast to digital.

2024 was also a year with a heightened presence of Native American and aboriginal artists in fine art galleries, biennials, museum shows and auctions. In 2025, we are likely to see more of those artists due to a growing global emphasis on diversity, cultural preservation, and the amplification of underrepresented voices in the art world.

Institutions are increasingly recognizing the historical marginalization of Indigenous artists and the need to honor their contributions through dedicated exhibitions, acquisitions, and programming.

As my friends in galleries always say, it’s always easier to work with a dead artist than an alive one. Galleries will always go after estates that they believe have been underrepresented or misunderstood and need their dues. Now, this doesn’t always pan out commercially, because while highly desirable, if there are only a small amount of lesser works in a prestigious estate, it’s not going to translate into massive sales.

But take the case of Lynne Drexler, a second-generation Abstract Expressionist who spent most of her life painting in seclusion on Monhegan Island, Maine. Without proper gallery representation, she lived and died in relative obscurity in 1999, leaving behind hundreds of extraordinary paintings and works on paper. For years, private dealers quietly bought her work at auction for around $5,000. Then, New York gallery Berry Campbell began representing her estate, giving her a long-overdue solo show. Collectors quickly recognized the exceptional quality of her work, which began appearing in prominent group exhibitions. In 2022, two of her paintings sold at auction for over $1 million. Today, her estate is co-represented by White Cube, cementing Drexler’s place in the art world she long deserved.

The interesting thing is that there are many artists like this, maybe not as commercially-friendly as Drexler given the colors, timelessness and harmony of her compositions, but opportunities exist nonetheless: Perle Fine, Helen Lundeberg, Emma Amos, Charmion von Wiegand, Marguerite Zorach, Eileen Agar. Some of these estates have gallery representation, some don’t; their works consistently show up at auction and are all worth taking a serious look.

Not all of the Middle East has the resources to build an art ecosystem, but the Gulf countries, particularly the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, have already demonstrated significant interest in art collecting, and this trend is set to intensify in 2025.

Both Christie’s and Sotheby’s have already opened outposts in Saudi Arabia and the $1 billion lifeline that Sotheby’s got this fall to avoid its financial collapse came from the Abu Dhabi Sovereign Wealth Fund. There are also rumors that Art Basel is taking over the Abu Dhabi Art Fair and the announcement will come next year.

It all makes sense: The Gulf's investment in museums and cultural initiatives such as the Louvre Abu Dhabi, Qatar Museums, and Saudi Arabia’s Diriyah Biennale has already started instilling a deeper appreciation for collecting among the more sophisticated locals and residents.

There’s also Alserkal Avenue in Dubai, a district with more than 80 galleries. A younger generation of Gulf collectors, educated abroad and exposed to global art markets, is emerging. These collectors are more experimental, less risk-averse, and more likely to engage in contemporary art practices.

The art world of 2025 will be a space of evolution and reflection, balancing the weight of history with the urgency of contemporary issues. As new collectors emerge, institutions reevaluate their priorities, and artists push boundaries, the opportunities for growth and innovation are endless.

Whether you are an artist, collector, or enthusiast, staying attuned to these shifts will ensure you remain part of this dynamic and ever-changing ecosystem. I’ll be here to help guide you through it.

Here's to a wonderful year of creativity, connection, and transformation. Happy 2025!

JUMPSTART: IGNITE YOUR CREATIVITY FOR PROFIT, INNOVATION, AND REINVENTION

I’ve put together a free webinar for those of you who are not members of my online course and inner circle.

In the course, there are dozens of hours of transformative content for you to watch or listen at your own pace plus access to live groundbreaking monthly calls. These handful of testimonials say it all.

If you’d like to watch it, please register here (it’s on auto-repeat every 15 minutes once you have registered).

But if you are ready to enroll now, you can do so here.

HOW CREATIVITY RULES THE WORLD

If you enjoy The Groove, you will love my book.

How Creativity Rules The World is filled with practical tools that will propel and guide you to get any project from an idea to a concrete reality.

Have you gotten yours yet?

It’s in three formats: hardcover, eBook and audiobook.

TEDX TALK

Have you already watched my TEDx Talk: “NFTs, Graffiti and Sedition: How Artists Invent The Future”?

I share three lessons I have learned from artists that always work for anyone in their careers. Watch it here.