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Hey! Every few days, another company releases a brand new AI tool. Anthropic just released Claude Sonnet 3.7, while I’m here still comparing Perplexity and Chat GPT’s Deep Research products. These drops are exciting but it takes time to keep up with the latest.

This is how I felt last year during the Kendrick Lamar and Drake beef. One side waited for the other to drop, then took all the attention away with a new release. Meanwhile, I was still trying to unpack all that was said in “meet the grahams.” Winning is about capturing the zeitgeist, whether it's a large language model or a superstar artist.

Today’s memo is about superfans. After years of debates and explorations on how record labels can get fans to pay more for music, we have new developments. Bloomberg reported that Spotify’s Music Pro Tier may launch later this year with an $18 per month price point and several new features. The major labels have pushed for a product like this for a while, but is it what fans really want?

You can listen to me and Tati Cirisano discuss on the latest episode of Trapital or read below for some highlights.

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Who is ‘Spotify Music Pro’ Really For?

From Lucas Shaw at Bloomberg News:

Superfans have been the buzzword for years. Music streaming subscription growth has slowed down in developed markets and the record labels want to raise those prices to continue growing the business. I’ve had dozens of conversations both on and off-record with decision-makers about what the solution could look like. At some point, action has to be taken, even if it's imperfect. So I’m not surprised that some details may have been leaked to see how the market responds.

But I’m skeptical that this solution as proposed will work.

First, this product is more of a record label initiative that’s pushed through Spotify as the consumer-facing platform. The major record label CEOs are far more vocal about adding superfan tiers and raising prices than the heads of any streaming services have been.

Universal Music Group executives hope that 20 to 30% of paid streaming subscribers will pay for such a service. With nearly half a billion people worldwide paying for music streaming, the expectation is that 100 million people (20 million in the United States) will pay for a product like this, which I don’t see happening.

Here’s the challenge with each of the features proposed:

Higher quality audio. High fidelity and lossless audio is already included on Apple Music and Amazon Music at the standard $10 to 12 per month price points in the United States. High-quality audio is an attractive feature to the audiophiles out there, but that audience is smaller than 20 to 30% of all existing paid subscribers.

Remixing tools. A very cool feature, but a feature that is largely targeting the younger Gen Z TikTok audience that has been less likely to pay for music streaming. A more expensive tier than the current offering may not lure them in.

Access to concert tickets. A valuable feature, but not one that fans are used to paying for. Usually, it’s the credit card companies that pay event promoters millions of dollars for the right to sell an allotment of tickets through its platform. It’s a perk that fans receive as a bonus. Plus, the biggest artists in the world often have overall brand deals with companies that include presales, like Taylor Swift and Capital One or Kendrick Lamar and Cash App.

I’m fully aware that it’s easy to criticize without an alternative proposal. If this doesn’t work, then what is the mix of features that will get 100 million more people worldwide to upgrade to Music Pro or the equivalent tier?

I don’t have that answer, but I do feel confident about this: The better way to get music streaming prices more in line with Netflix’s $24.99 per month may be to raise prices more aggressively, just as Netflix has. Maybe the 2025 price hikes should be $2 per month increase on individual plans instead of $1 per month. Maybe the introduction of a less expensive ad-supported tier can make any price increases to the current premium tier feel less burdensome.

It’s always tough to compare Spotify to Netflix for several reasons, but the current music streaming product might be enough to eventually get to that desired price point of $18 per month. Because if I’m skeptical about this—as a less price sensitive, tapped in person—then that’s not a good indicator for the rest of the subscriber base that likely falls further down the adoption curve.

Listen here: Apple | Spotify | Overcast​

CHARTMETRIC STAT OF THE WEEK

The Red Hot Chili Peppers are reportedly seeking $350 million for their recorded music catalog—bringing their total earnings from music rights to a potential $500 million. Unlike artists with just a few major hits, their deep catalog continues to perform across streaming, radio, and touring, making it a prime investment. On radio, Under The Bridge remains their most-played song, while Californication is the band's most popular on streaming.

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Dan Runcie
Founder of Trapital

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