Tomasz Tunguz - What Happened to My Traffic?
Tomasz TunguzVenture Capitalist If you were forwarded this newsletter, and you'd like to receive it in the future, subscribe here. What Happened to My Traffic?
Chegg filed suit against Google for changes in their algorithm forcing the company to consider a sale. They allege the Google AI Overviews feature displays Chegg’s AI-enabled Q&A homework helper. This suit stands as the first of its kind challenging Google for changing search patterns, but it won’t be the last. The data tells a stark story. Looking at Chegg’s traffic using SEMRush analytics, their organic traffic has dropped from 5.6 million to 3.7 million visitors in months—a 34% decline. Organic keyword volume has shrunk from 11.1 million keywords to 3.5 million—a 68% collapse. This means for millions of student queries where Chegg once appeared, Google’s AI intercepts that traffic. Is this an isolated case or part of a broader shift? To find out, I sampled a few other companies. First: HubSpot. The pattern is similar,even though it’s a very different product. B2B SaaS vs B2C content. Stack Overflow —the internet’s premier knowledge base for programmers is seeing the same downward trajectory. When AI can directly answer coding questions where developers work, why visit a webpage? Not all content publishers are suffering. The New York Times shows a completely opposite pattern. Teir traffic continues to surge upward and to the right in this same timeframe. What explains this stark contrast? Perhaps a strategic arrangement? The Times signed a $100 million licensing deal with Google in 2023. As AI agents crawl and digest the internet, we witness the birth of a new economic hierarchy. Content publishers face an existential choice: forge partnerships with AI platforms, pivot their business models, or watch their traffic disappear into agentic answers. |
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