Good morning! In the last 24 hours the DOGE dividend has quickly become one of the most talked-about policy ideas — so Opening Bell Daily sat down with the investment CEO who pitched the idea. Full Q&A below. First time reading? Join 190,000 self-directed investors gaining an edge every morning. Sign up here. 

The case for the DOGE dividend

What would you do with an extra $5,000? 

More importantly, where would it come from? 

James Fishback, the CEO of investment firm Azoria Partners, sees a way for every US taxpaying household to get a check President Donald Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which is helmed by Elon Musk. 

On Tuesday, Fishback pitched the idea — dubbed the “DOGE dividend” — publicly on X.

Musk replied directly to the post: “Will check with the President.” 

Currently, DOGE is reportedly achieving about $1 billion in savings per day through its first several weeks of operation. The stated goal is $2 trillion in total savings.

Fishback’s proposal is for the White House to work with Congress to take 20% of that and distribute it to each of the 79 million tax-paying US households. 

The math works out to about $5,000 per household. 

The pitch has stirred controversy across social media, with some detractors likening it to a political handout. Others caution that it could stoke inflation or undermine debt-reduction goals. 

Investor Anthony Pompliano, for one, said Wednesday that the savings from DOGE should be used as a means to reduce the federal income tax instead. 

Meanwhile, late Wednesday President Trump mentioned it in a speech and said his team is actively considering the idea.

Opening Bell Daily sat down with Fishback to better understand his views. 

The following Q&A has been lightly edited for clarity and length. 

Q: With the above numbers in mind, explain the DOGE dividend in plain language and why you believe it to be useful. 

James Fishback: Restitution for government waste, fraud, and abuse is the right thing to do, and it’s required to restore public trust in government, which the political-science literature demonstrates is directly linked to tax morale and therefore tax receipts. 

Giving the taxpayer an equity stake, effectively, in cost-cutting will incentivize the average American to care about balanced budgets and call out wasteful spending wherever they see it, increasing the surface area for DOGE to do its work. 

Seventy-nine million people will be incentivized to report any government waste that they see in their daily lives, which is likely to increase the total quantity of savings that DOGE identifies. 

Because the tax refund is limited to households paying federal income tax, it will incentivize 2025 labor force participation. Low labor force participation is throttling economic growth, with 7 million working-age men not working.

An incremental incentive to get them back to work will mitigate this trend and increase tax receipts, which is a great thing for the budget and the country.

Q: Can you break down the best- and worst-case scenarios for the DOGE dividend, or the bull- and bear-case?  

JF: The bull case is that DOGE saves $2 trillion, $400 billion of which is returned to taxpayers in the form of $5,000 checks, who use it for savings, investment, and debt paydowns, increasing overall productive capacity. 

This creates a broad-based mandate from taxpayers for balanced budgets, and it increases labor force participation. 

Bear case — DOGE saves $500 billion, $100 billion of which is returned to taxpayers in the form of $1,250, who use it primarily for savings, investment, and paydowns, modestly increasing overall productive capacity. 

Other impacts are muted, with no effect on tax morale, the democratic mandate for balanced budgets or labor force participation. 

Either way, the structure of the proposal requires that savings exceed refund checks by a factor of 5, making it a great risk-reward.

Q: How do you respond to critics who question whether the dividend will have a positive economic impact, and whether it will worsen the US deficit? 

JF: First, we’d ask them to read the full memo online. 

In our view, there are two reasons this wouldn’t worsen the deficit. 

To start, the DOGE Dividend is contingent on spending cuts. It is truly a tax refund in the most literal sense. It’s financed exclusively via spending cuts and issued exclusively to households that are net payers of federal income tax. 

Since Azoria’s plan calls for paying out 20% of the savings DOGE identifies, with the rest used to pay down the national debt, the value of spending cuts must exceed the value of the payouts by a factor of five.

Second, medium-term, the dividend can actually drive up tax receipts by increasing tax morale and restoring trust between taxpayers and their government. By directly incentivizing taxpayers to report observed instances of waste, fraud, and abuse to DOGE, it’s likely to increase the total amount saved. 

Q: What do you say to critics who say the dividend is a political handout (as opposed to a reward for fiscal or budgetary responsibility)? 

JF: President Trump won a mandate in 2024 in part because of his commitment to major government reform. He is delivering on that mandate with DOGE by saving taxpayer money, irrespective of whether you voted for him. 

This is distinct from a “political handout” for two reasons: 

First, it would be executed by a president who cannot seek re-election. President Trump has no incentive to attempt to “buy votes.”

And second, it is directly contingent upon cost cutting. If no costs are cut, no dividend will be paid out. 

Q: What’s the bipartisan case for the DOGE dividend? 

JF: Taxation is an implied social contract between the taxpayer and his government. When that contract is flagrantly breached, a sacred trust is violated. 

Whether you’re a Democrat or a Republican, your taxpayer dollars ought to be treated with respect. That’s what DOGE is working to do under President Trump’s leadership.

Comments or feedback? Reply directly to this email or let me know on X @philrosenn.

Elsewhere:

🚀 The S&P 500 closed at another record the same day the Fed released minutes from its January meeting, which showed officials are closely tracking risks that could worsen inflation. Markets shrugged off the update from the central bank, and continue to price in a rate cut this year. (AP)

👨‍💻 Microsoft unveiled a new quantum chip. The stock climbed 1.25% on Wednesday following the release of Majorana 1, which Microsoft says uses a new cutting-edge material called topoconductor. This comes two months after Google announced its own quantum chip, Willow. (Yahoo Finance)

📉 Palantir stock tanked double-digits. Shares dropped as much as 12% Wednesday following a report that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has told Pentagon officials to prepare to cut the US defense budget by 8% each year for the next five years. (CNBC)

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