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Trump's frenetic firing spree, explained

The spate of federal firings that stretched throughout last week escalated last Friday, and continued through the holiday weekend. 

Nearly all of those fired were “probationary” employees, a status usually conferred on new workers, those that switch agencies, and the recently promoted, that provides fewer protections against removal. 

Reports have been unclear about exactly how many people were fired and where. However, we do know some details:

• Roughly 400 Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) workers focused on research, science, and administrative support; 
• About 3,600 Health and Human Services workers, including at least: 750 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) employees, at least 1,000 National Institutes of Health workers, and 750 people at the Food and Drug Administration (FDA);
• At least 400 Homeland Security employees, including 200 Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) employees;
• About 2,300 at the Department of the Interior, including 800 at the Bureau of Land Management and 1,000 at the National Parks Service;
• More than 3,000 Forest Service employees at the Department of Agriculture;
• More than 1,000 Veterans Affairs professionals; 
• At least 300 Environmental Protection Agency workers;
• More than 1,500 NASA employees (10 percent of the agency’s workforce).

By several accounts, the firing process was a haphazard one — probationary employees at the National Nuclear Security Administration, which manages the US’s nuclear weapons, were asked to return to work after being fired, for instance.

The Trump administration has argued these cuts (and more) are needed to slash federal spending, and to shrink a bloated bureaucracy.

However, the latest reduction in force is unlikely to provide taxpayers with major savings, and could jeopardize the government’s mandate to protect its citizens.

Take, for instance, the VA’s claim that its terminations will save $98 million per year. That is a lot of money to me, but it represents only 0.00145 percent of the $6.75 trillion the federal government spent in the 2024 fiscal year. Celebrating that cut is like me jumping for joy because I managed to save a tenth of a penny by foregoing something at the grocery store. Sure it’s money saved, but not really an appreciable sum.

The point is — and it’s a point others have made — the US will need to make massive cuts, on the trillion, not million, dollar scale if it really wants to appreciably tighten its belt. To do that, it would need to slash spending on expensive programs like Medicare, Medicaid, and the defense. 

Much like with the VA’s savings, those let go represent a fraction of the federal workforce. If you combine the latest round of layoffs with previous rounds — and even with the roughly 75,000 people who took the government’s buyout offer — then just under 4 percent of the government’s 2.4 million person workforce has been cut. 

That means the government is still pretty big. The good news about that is it means government services are unlikely to keel over tomorrow. The worry is about the day after tomorrow. 

We’re not out of fire season, and fire experts and Forest Service workers are expressing great concern that they won’t have the manpower to keep communities safe.

“It’s just going to be a disaster for the wildfire response this season,” one Forest Service firefighter told Stateline.

Spring break and summer travel season are coming in fast too. The FAA was clear that it didn’t fire any air traffic controllers, but, as you read in this newsletter a few weeks ago, aviation experts believe our flight systems are seriously overtaxed. 

And it’s not just a matter of fire or flying: a disaster could happen at any time requiring FEMA’s full attention; the CDC might need to be called into action over a new pandemic — federal agencies were already struggling to get bird flu under control. 

It’s impossible to tell you right now what the effects of these cuts will be, and if things will go as badly as some now claim. But the worry is, if things do go south due to lack of personnel, it will be too late — avoidable tragedy will have struck.

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American inertia: Americans don’t move homes as much as they once did, and Rachel Cohen spoke to a historian who says that’s warping our lives.

Unwell welfare state: Abdallah Fayyad writes that the first weeks of the Trump administration portend bad news for our welfare state.

I know about popular: People still really like Trump, according to recent polling; Christian Paz explains why.

Relentless advance: Congolese rebel group M23 has taken another key city; in their wake are upended lives. [New York Times, BBC]

Prince of cats: Paleontologists have uncovered the skull of an ancient, mysterious, cat-like predator in Egypt. [CNN]

A private chat: A meeting between the US and Russia on ending Russia’s war in Ukraine went well, both sides said. Ukraine wasn’t invited. [Associated Press]

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Humans are inherently social creatures, but that doesn't mean socializing comes naturally to all of us. Luckily, Allie Volpe has some advice for everyone trying to make their social lives a little richer.

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Today’s edition was produced and edited by me, news editor Sean Collins. Wishing you a fantastic day!

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