Trump stood before Congress and the world and declared that his presidency has been the most successful in history. He played the role of a strongman who has defeated his enemies and won over the public. He touted his accomplishments, dismissed his foes, and bragged (and lied) about his electoral victory. The Republicans treated Trump like a conquering hero.

A State of the Union/Joint Address is a home game for the President. They stand on the dais in the Capitol and deliver a message to guaranteed applause from at least half the room. Even Donald Trump could (mostly) successfully execute in the moment. He read from the prompter. He executed some PR stunts involving the guests in the First Lady’s box.

The Republicans applauded at the designated moments. Trump mainly received good reviews from the press (barring the factcheckers), and the post-speech polls looked good for him. This speech will be covered as a triumph — and in the short term, it may be! But in time, Trump will look back and realize that it was a missed opportunity and possibly a strategic blunder.

Trump is High on His Own Supply

A high-profile speech like this should lay out an agenda, but more importantly, it's a once-a-year opportunity to shape the political environment. Doing so successfully means understanding the current voter mindset and anticipating which way the political winds are blowing.

Trump did neither...