Elon Musk claims that the U.S. DOGE Service (DOGE) — a small group of Musk associates embedded in virtually every department of the federal government — have already saved taxpayers over $100 billion. In an appearance on Fox Business this week, Musk claimed he was saving $4 billion per day and was on track to cut $1 trillion from the federal budget.

Is that true?

Musk claims to operate with unprecedented transparency and has posted "receipts" for the savings on DOGE.gov.

Most of these purported "savings," however, are not backed up with any details or documentation. In other cases, DOGE has provided documentation, but the documents reveal that DOGE has grossly overstated the potential savings to taxpayers.

That is why, today, we are launching the Musk Watch DOGE Tracker. The Musk Watch DOGE Tracker allows anyone to easily cut through the spin about DOGE and see how much savings can be verified. It also allows the public to go deeper and see what is being cut and who is being impacted. It will be updated weekly.

The Musk Watch DOGE Tracker breaks down the purported savings into three categories:

1. DOGE Claimed Total Savings ($105 billion)

This is just the number at the top of the DOGE website. It is the number used by Musk and Trump in media appearances and, too often, is uncritically repeated in the media. As of March 12, DOGE claims $105 billion in total savings. There is no relationship between this number and the actual data on the rest of the website.

2. DOGE Itemized Savings ($29.9 billion)

This includes the total amount of claimed savings where DOGE provides any itemization, whether the information is accurate or verifiable. It currently includes around $14.5 billion in grants where the only information provided is the federal department and the dollar amount. The lack of information means these savings cannot be verified.

This category also includes the claimed savings for all canceled contracts, even though these savings are frequently inflated. Details on how DOGE inflates the value of canceled contracts in the next section. The total claimed savings from contracts is about $14.9 billion. DOGE Itemized Savings also includes $468 million in claimed real estate savings from canceled leases.

The total DOGE Itemized Savings is currently $29.9 billion.

3. Verifiable Canceled Funding ($8.6 billion)

This includes the amount of savings that can be verified based on the information provided by DOGE. Most Verifiable Canceled Funding comes from canceled contracts. But Musk Watch has determined the actual potential savings, rather than the inflated values provided by DOGE.

Here is how it works. For each contract, there are three key figures: the "Obligated Amount," the "Current Award Amount," and the "Potential Award Amount." The Obligated Amount is the amount the agency has obligated itself to spend. DOGE calculates the savings by taking the "Potential Award Amount" and subtracting the "Obligated Amount." The "Potential Award Amount" is the value of the contract if all options, renewals, extensions, and expansions of the contract are exercised.

"The 'Current Award Amount' is a better way of determining what the government has committed to a contract," Jacob Leibenluft, the former Executive Associate Director of the Office of Management and Budget told Musk Watch. By using "Potential Award Amount" instead, Leibenluft explained, DOGE is taking credit for saving money that the government was not required to spend and might never have been spent under any administration.

Musk Watch calculates the savings by taking the "Current Award Amount," and subtracting the "Obligated Amount." This results in a significantly lower estimation of savings. Here is an example of an EPA contract with Endyna Inc that was canceled by DOGE:

DOGE takes the "Potential Award Amount" of $134 million and subtracts the "Obligated Amount" of $64.7 million and calculates a total savings of $69.3 million. Musk Watch substitutes the "Current Award Amount" — the actual value of the contract — and finds a more realistic savings of $5.4 million.

This more accurate methodology reduces the total savings from the 4083 contracts canceled by DOGE from $14.9 billion to $8.1 billion.

The Musk Watch DOGE Tracker also includes real estate savings in this category since DOGE does provide specific addresses, even though the real estate savings are also somewhat inflated. A Washington Post analysis found that many of the savings "were calculated by assuming that those leases would otherwise have continued for another five years" even though many were scheduled to expire within the next two years.

The total Verifiable Canceled Funding, as calculated by the Musk Watch DOGE Tracker, is currently $8.6 billion. This means the top line claim of savings by DOGE, $105 billion, overstates the verified savings by 92%.

Other notes and caveats

Even the Verifiable Canceled Funding as determined by the Musk Watch DOGE Tracker may still overstate the real savings to taxpayers.

First, since there is a delay in federal contract databases, we have to assume that all the contracts that DOGE says it canceled are actually canceled. But more than 1000 contracts that have appeared on the DOGE.gov website at one point were subsequently removed. So some of the current contracts that DOGE says it has canceled may not actually be canceled.

Second, canceling a contract that is paid for by funds appropriated by Congress does not automatically decrease the budget. Leibenluft explained that all savings claimed by DOGE for canceled contracts may be "illusory" because the agency is still "required to spend the money" appropriated by Congress for the same statutorily authorized purpose. Absent action by Congress rescinding the funds, refusing to spend the money constitutes impoundment by the executive, which is illegal.