Daily Money - Issue #46: OK, let's try this again

sorry about that, everybody
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Clearly, I had some technical difficulties on Wednesday. A glitch randomly deleted half of my newsletter, making it so you didn't get to see all my hard work, the Receipt of the Week, Internet Gold and — most importantly — the 401(k)9 Contribution! I'm sorry about this and grateful to everyone who alerted me to the problem.

 

Without further ado, and with fervent hope that this time it works, here's issue #46 in full. Thanks for your patience.

 

Hi y'all —

 

Like many Americans, I got my CARES Act stimulus check a couple weeks ago and promptly spent it. No, I didn’t buy the $500 leather jacket or $300 Nintendo Switch I’ve been coveting. Instead, I used the money to pay off an ER bill I had left over from when a plate of macaroni and cheese tried to kill me last fall. (True story.)


I’m lucky enough to have a job right now, so I didn’t need to put my $1,200 toward basic necessities. Others did. As a nation, we were pretty responsible with our stimulus checks — we didn’t really blow our payments on outlandish things. According to a MONEY poll from April, most people used the cash for bills, groceries and rent/mortgage payments. Others put them into checking and/or savings accounts.


But 60% of those respondents said the money fell short of meeting all their needs, and that’s only become a bigger issue as the coronavirus crisis has worn on. We’re now approaching what experts are calling “the cliff” — when all of the temporary measures the government put in place back in March run out this summer — and things are nowhere near back to normal. 


It seems to me that more relief money would help people out. But is it likely? Are we going to get a second stimulus check? What’s involved in the decision? 


Erica Groshen, a senior extension faculty member at Cornell University’s School of Industrial and Labor Relations, compared the spring shutdowns to a hospital patient who’s been put into a medically induced coma. Back in March, the doctors (in this case, the lawmakers) needed to knock out the patient (the economy) so they could get the infection (the coronavirus) under control.


“We were not trying to wake ourselves up,” Groshen, a former commissioner for the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, says. “We needed to keep ourselves in that coma. However, we did need life support.”


Some life support came in the form of stimulus checks, which Groshen said should actually be classified as disaster relief. That’s because the payments weren’t intended to stimulate the economy — just keep it from dying immediately. 


Now that we know a little bit more about what’s happening, the government has to figure out the next step in recovery.


“The question is, do we need more disaster relief? And then, when should we start the stimulus, the actual fiscal policy to try and revive the sleeping economy?” she says. “The answer to the first question is quite clear. We will absolutely need more life support when this runs out, because we’re probably not ready to fully wake the patient up again.” 

The form that takes, though, could vary.

 

The CARES Act stimulus check passed with ease because “it was a big shock, and we wanted to make it simple and give it to everybody,” says Ioana Marinescu, an economist at the University of Pennsylvania. This time around, there’s a lot more drama around both how big the stimulus payments should be and who should get them.


House Democrats have introduced the Health and Economic Recovery Omnibus Emergency Solutions Act, which would give people $1,200 per family member and max out at $6,000 per household. Meanwhile, Kamala Harris, Bernie Sanders and Ed Markey have backed the Monthly Economic Crisis Support Act, which would send $2,000 a month to every individual until the pandemic is over.


Here’s where politics comes in.

 

The HEROES Act got passed in the House, but it was basically DOA in the Republican-controlled Senate. The White House is reportedly working on its own package, but it won’t be done until July. Mitch McConnell has been generally reticent to even touch the issue; he’s said the next stimulus bill will be the final one.


Something’s gotta give, according to Marinescu. Without a stimulus, there’s a severe threat of economic dislocation. People won’t buy things because they don’t have money. Companies won’t make money, so they will lay workers off. Those people won’t buy things because they don’t have money, and so on until the end of the world. (Exaggeration mine, not the economist’s.)


Our best hope may be for some sort of middle ground. There is precedent: During the Great Recession, 124 million households received rebates in 2008. Then, in 2009, many people got tax cuts and credits — not straight-up deposits into their accounts.


To that end, Marinescu has put forth a proposal suggesting people who lost their jobs as a result of the pandemic receive an extra $600 a week for four months, regardless of their unemployment status. She said it’d probably be more palatable to conservatives than cutting checks to everyone, and it would still achieve the intended effects of jump-starting growth.


“This could be a sweet spot of compromise,” Marinescu adds. “We want people to spend money — that’s what helps the economy to move forward. From that perspective, targeting those who lost their jobs could be a good idea.”

Image
THE BOTTOM LINE

(but please don't tell me you scrolled past all of my hard work)

 

People would like to see the government approve additional stimulus checks, but we probably won’t get them anytime soon (if at all). 


Remember: This is all just one step in taking the economy out of its coma. Groshen said the U.S. likely also needs to plan for investments in infrastructure, a workforce development system, support for business formation, epidemiology improvements and more. Lingering public health concerns mean it’ll be a gradual process.


“We are beginning to wake our economy up, but we don’t want to wake it up too fast because that’s too dangerous,” she says.

via GIPHY

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RECEIPT OF THE WEEK

check out this crazy celebrity purchase

 
Grimes

via Instagram

This isn’t technically a purchase, but I’m making an exception. Grimes — musician, Elon Musk’s girlfriend and X Æ A-Xii’s mom — is selling some of her soul. It’s part of an art exhibit. She originally set the price at $10 million but, like everyone who has tried to make quick cash on Craigslist, eventually decided just to take the best offer. The buyer will be contractually entitled to “share in the joy and happiness created by Grimes’ Soul,” including “flashes of brilliant white light and an ethereal feeling.” So there’s that.

INTERNET GOLD

five things I'm loving online right now

1

This Daily Memphian story suggesting people use their free time in quarantine to hunt for mushrooms is so wholesome. Also, I’m going to start using this saying without context in my everyday life: “There’s old mushroom hunters, and there are bold mushroom hunters, but no old, bold mushroom hunters.” I don’t know what it means, but I love it.

2

How brilliant is this clear face mask for sign language interpreters at hospitals?

3

This video of a Pokemon card collector totally freaking out after finding a first-edition holographic Charizard reminds me of my childhood. Except I didn’t have any $50,000 cards, and even if I did, my brother would have stolen them.

4

I'm obsessed with Slate's oral history of the cabbage merchant in Avatar: The Last Airbender. The kicker is especially awesome: "We all have our cabbages. There’s something that’s important to us, that we get frustrated about how it’s handled, how nobody else respects it, and we seem to be alone in the world ... We are all the cabbage merchant."

5

Look at this GIF and breeeeeeathe.
401(K)9 CONTRIBUTION

send me cute pictures of your pets, please

401(k)9
 

CREDIT: @JOANNA17769249

This is Domino, a security guard who is staring out the window while waiting for Congress to agree on a new stimulus pawkage.

Image

All this learning is making me hungry for mac and cheese.


See you next week.


Julia


P.S. I loved the feedback I got last issue about credit unions. Scholars Jason and Jeffrey pointed out that most credit unions participate in cooperative ATM networks, which mean customers have access to cash all over the place (including at 7-Elevens). Scholars Michele and Jim said that credit union debit and credit cards aren’t great for international travel. And finally, Scholar Margaret chimed in to say she loves her credit union because she truly feels like they have her best interests at heart (not shareholders’). We could all use a little TLC.


P.P.S. Do you think people should get a second stimulus check? What’s your favorite Pokemon? How much would you sell your soul for? Send in a Dolla Scholla holla at julia.glum@money.com or @SuperJulia. Your comment may be featured here in the next issue!

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