2PM - No. 361: Forward

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Letter No. 361. The most recent letter had a 58.2% open rate. The leading report: a real analysis on Adidas x Allbirds. Starwood Capital Group defaults. Microsoft lays off journalists for A.I. Facebook's second screen companion launches. Facebook employees stage virtual walkout. Mall of America postpones reopening. Facebook Shops a game changer? Evan Spiegel on race in America. And Jennifer Rubio and Stewart Butterfield's philanthropy.

It's been a sad and tumultuous week since the last letter. There were a multitude of views and perspectives that I was tasked to consider when curating this letter; below is the way that I chose to do so. It is straightforward and instructive. Yes, there are elements that have been omitted. However I am saving a specific commentary for Friday's member letter. I hope that you find today's issue helpful and as always, thank you for being here. Forward. 


Here's how you can . 
 
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As online sales soar, store closures harm local economies

A. eCommerce Growth / WWD: In regard to online sales, data from COVID-19 Commerce Insight (an initiative from Emarsys in cooperation with GoodData) for the past seven days shows online sales for traditional retailers trending up 54 percent in the U.S., which compares to 96 percent year-over-year revenue growth for pure-play e-commerce sites. For fashion and accessories, online sales in the U.S. are up 65 percent year-over-year for traditional retailers, which compares to 117 percent for pure-play sites.

From: DTCs Second Life 

As more Americans begin to normalize the retail practices adopted during this time of social distancing, eCommerce practices will evolve and the DTC industry will benefit. This will reflect in higher CTR, lower CPM, high ROAS, and lower CPM. Why? An evolving total addressable market (TAM) will reflect more opportunity for discovery in much the same way that streaming penetration has altered consumer preferences for media consumption: nearly 60% of all media is now streamed.

2PM Data:  Online retail's behavioral changes | Statista Survey (May 29. 2020) 

Now retailers and restaurants have to rebuild after protests

B. Retail Real Estate / CNBC: Retailers and restaurants shuttered by the coronavirus pandemic had just started to reopentheir businesses. Employees at big-box stores worked to restock shelves and resume more typical store hours. But in recent days, nationwide protests prompted by the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis have led to shattered storefronts and looting and forced many doors back shut.

On Amazon's alternative plans for Prime Day

eCommerce / Business Insider: The Summer Sale would allow Amazon to attract sales from consumers and showcase that it can again provide fast delivery speeds. Consumers may be interested in a sales event from Amazon even if it lacks Prime Day's branding, especially since it could take place around the time Prime Day usually does and price is the most important factor for US Amazon shoppers when they select a product. 

The shift to eCommerce poses a challenge for luxury brands

eCommerce / Vogue Business: Anecdotal evidence from cities where bricks-and-mortar stores have reopened portray a streamlined experience, with customers quickly picking up specific items and leaving soon after. This means discoverability via online platforms is increasingly key, even if the customer is still waiting to try on and buy the physical product in store. Those that have invested in online infrastructure like click and collect (78 per cent of brands) and appointment shopping (68 per cent of brands) may be well placed to retool or build out these features to address shoppers’ concerns about hygiene.

How the overwhelming shift to online impacted retailer returns strategies

Logistics / econsultancy: Many commentators were already referring to the state of retail returns as a 'crisis' before Covid-19 brought about an unprecedented shift to online channels. What now for returns? It's a well-established fact that the coronavirus crisis has resulted in a significant shift towards online shopping channels as brick-and-mortar stores close and consumers find themselves carrying out almost all of their shopping from home.

Will the pandemic push knowledge work into the gig economy?

Gig Economy / HBR: Gig workers in the knowledge economy will have to work with and for firms that have pronounced values, incentives, practices, and preferences. But they do not assimilate easily into these organizations (unless they join them) as they often work at arms-length with them and are seen by people in the organizations as outsiders — or even threats —impeding effective cooperation and creating the potential for conflict.

Brick and mortar's next chapter

Retail Real Estate / Retail Dive: April's e-commerce rise, in revenue and market share, doesn't necessarily tell the whole long-term story, either. It's true that the pandemic has led more people to shop online, even those previously uncomfortable with or disinterested in it, notes Rebecca Hamilton, professor of marketing at Georgetown University's McDonough School of Business. But her research suggests that's unlikely to diminish the value consumers place on shopping in stores because their reasons are fundamental, she said in an interview.

Lowe's launches virtual tool for home visits

Enterprise eCommerce / CNBC: Starting Monday, professionals can use a video chat service from the home improvement retailer. By providing the service, called Lowe’s for Pros JobSight, the company is trying to encourage more pros to join its loyalty program — and inspire them to buy more tools and products at its stores. 

This is Lowe's first major eCommerce innovation in nearly a decade. To understand Home Depot's existing advantage and CEO Marvin Ellison's task to right-size Lowe's digital retail approach, read the in-depth member report on the retailer. 

2PM: Lowe's vs. Home Depot and Home Improvement

But there remains no solution for the digitally-native home goods marketplace. Amazon is maintaining focus on essential goods for the foreseeable future. Home Depot and Lowe’s are positioned to forge ahead with traditional supply chain practices. Neither retail platform have shown an interest in sourcing, marketing, or distributing goods from modern retailers. There is an opportunity for the growing contingency of digitally-native brands to present themselves elsewhere.

US online grocery shopping jumps as chains rush to add capacity

Grocery / CNBC: Online grocery sales in the US jumped by a quarter over the past month, according to research, as retailers solved the teething problems caused by heavy demand in the early stages of the pandemic. A Brick Meets Click/Mercatus survey suggested that 43m US shoppers placed 73.5m online grocery orders in May, at an average of $90 per order.

Will DTC actually change post-COVID retail forever?

DTC's Future / Campaign US: Leadership teams are struggling to find the time or bandwidth to think about the future, but that’s their job. They can either use this time to stick their heads in the sand and see what happens or take a stand for their brand in a post-COVID world. These next few months are your chance to take the learnings and windfall from your opportunistic growth and create a brand strategy that transcends channel.

Analyst: HBO Max isn't a game changer for AT&T

Streaming Economy / Hollywood Reporter: The analyst also said he remains "skeptical that there are large synergies between content and distribution." While offering HBO Max "as a lure to convince customers to take AT&T’s wireless offerings, or to upgrade to higher-tiered plans, will likely help on customer acquisition and retention to some degree, it’s not at all clear that the incremental value of that offering to customers materially exceeds the cost of providing it."

Nike releases 'Don't Do It' ad

Brand / CNBC: Nike released an ad Friday night imploring viewers not to "pretend there's not a problem in America" while protests occurred in cities nationwide following the death in Minnesota of George Floyd after a white officer pressed a knee into his neck while taking him into custody.

Memo: On Inspirational Brands 
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To say “may you live in an interesting age” would not be a cheerful adieu. In fact, some would say it is a curse. 1936, the year that Coudert’s colleague wrote the letter, was one of tremendous global turmoil. America’s Great Depression lingered and unemployment hovered at 16.9%. Germany was vying for global, military dominance. And they were succeeding. Their breaking the Treaty of Versailles defied the world’s wishes. A Victorian masterpiece, the Crystal Palace was destroyed in a tragic fire. Mussolini and Japan formed an alliance that defined a coming war. And King Edward abdicated, shocking the nation that he helped govern. For the world, 1936 was an "interesting age."

Read the report. 


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