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NEED TO KNOW

Initial Unemployment Claims Rise

Just over 1.4 million Americans filed initial unemployment claims last week, slightly higher than economist expectations and an increase of roughly 100,000 from the previous week. It marks the 18th consecutive week of more than 1 million first-time claims and breaks a 15-week streak of gradually declining claims since peaking at 6.9 million in late March (see data). California saw the highest number of claims, at nearly 300,000. Analysts say the rise is partially driven by a number of states reversing reopening plans amid growing coronavirus cases. 

Continuing claims—workers who have been collecting benefits for at least two weeks, a better proxy for current unemployment—dropped by 1.1 million from the previous week's report, to 16.2 million. Figures for continuing claims lag initial claims by one week. Separately, Labor Department data (see here) show 13.2 million additional workers—typically self-employed, contractors, or gig economy workers—are receiving unemployment benefits under a coronavirus stimulus provision, which runs through the end of the year.

The figures come as a $600-per-week boost to unemployment benefits provided under the CARES Act stimulus package ends this month (the last payment for most comes this weekend). Individuals can expect an average of $383 per week absent the provision.

Jacksonville Canceled

President Trump announced yesterday the Jacksonville, Florida, component of the GOP convention scheduled for August will be canceled, citing COVID-19 concerns. The event was originally scheduled for Charlotte, North Carolina, but was relocated after the state pushed for a limited gathering. Delegates will still gather in Charlotte Aug. 24 to formally nominate Trump as the GOP presidential candidate; it is unclear whether he will accept in person. 

The move came as the number of reported coronavirus cases in the US passed 4 million, doubling the number of known cases in just six weeks. States like Florida and Arizona have begun to see downward trends in new cases, while reported cases are on the rise in Texas, California, Louisiana, Mississippi, and elsewhere. See how your state is doing here.  

The rise in new cases is only partially due to an increase in testing capacity. Testing positivity—the fraction of tests returned as positive—has more than doubled since June 1 in the South (now more than 12%) and the West (8.7%), but has stayed flat in the Northeast (1.9%). See the data here. 

More than 144,305 people have died from the virus in the US (more than 633,00 globally), with daily deaths passing 1,000 each of the past three days, a threshold not broken since late May.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has said the number of actual cases could be two to 13 times higher in some regions. The agency has established a map of estimated seroprevalence—the percentage of the population already infected, based on antibody blood tests—in different states, updated as new studies are completed. View the graphic here. 

In related news, the degree to which reinfections occur is still up for debate, though many experts now think severe reinfections are very unlikely.

No Payroll Tax Cuts

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the White House had reached an agreement with the Senate on the outline of a fourth coronavirus stimulus package, but that it would not include a payroll tax cut. Despite the broad agreement, haggling on details prevented Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell from a scheduled unveiling yesterday.  

Known provisions include $105B for education, with $30B set aside for schools planning to reopen in the fall. Direct payments would be "exactly the same" as the March package that sent $1,200 checks to households with a phase-out beginning at $75K. The $600-per-week unemployment boost is likely to be extended at lower levels—the goal is to provide the newly unemployed 70% of their pre-pandemic income—but does not extend an eviction moratorium that ends this month. See more details on the proposal here.

Negotiations with House Democrats, who previously unveiled a $3.5T bill, start shortly.

Separately, the Senate voted 86-14 to approve a defense policy bill that requires the renaming of military bases honoring Confederate leaders, setting up a veto showdown with the White House.

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IN THE KNOW

Sports, Entertainment, & Culture

> Taylor Swift drops surprise album “Folklore” this morning (More) | Kanye West also set to release new album “Donda” today (More) | ... but album may be delayed as of this morning (More) 

> WNBA season tips off Saturday (12pm ET, ESPN) in a bubble in Bradenton, Florida, with a truncated schedule (More) | See what life is like inside the WNBA bubble (More)

> Washington, DC’s NFL franchise will be known as Washington Football Team for 2020 season while team seeks a permanent name (More) | Seattle’s expansion NHL team announces it will be known as the Kraken (More)

Science & Technology

> Genetic analysis suggests the virus that causes smallpox was circulating in humans as early as 600 CE; the variola virus was declared eradicated in 1980 but its origins remain unknown (More)

> NASA's Mars rover passes flight readiness test, has nuclear power source installed ahead of July 30 launch (More)

> Scientists find a chemically altered DNA base pair plays a role in placenta development in mice; it was unclear if the compound, methylated adenine, even existed in mammals (More) | How DNA works (More)

Business & Markets

Brought to you by The Ascent

> Big tech stocks lead US stock markets lower (S&P 500 -1.2%, Dow -1.3%, Nasdaq -2.3%) as weekly unemployment claims tick up (More)

> Ascena Retail Group, owner of brands like Ann Taylor, Lane Bryant, Loft, and others, files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy; will close a significant number of its 2,800 stores (More)

> Twitter sees average daily users grow 34% over last year to 186 million, while ad sales sink 23% due to pandemic (More)

Have credit card debt? Now’s a very good time to jump on a balance transfer. Get a 0% introductory APR for 18 months on balance transfers with this card. Give yourself a year and a half to pay off your balance for peace of mind (More) #Ad

Politics & World Affairs

> Thousands of Portland protestors gather outside federal courthouse, demand removal of protective fence; federal officers use tear gas and crowd control munitions after fireworks were shot from the crowd into the protected space (More) 

> Judge rules the government retaliated against former Trump personal lawyer Michael Cohen over a potential upcoming book; Cohen ordered back to home confinement for the duration of his three-year sentence (More)

> The UK offers pathway to citizenship to millions of Hong Kong residents on the heels of controversial national security bill passed by Beijing; offer applies to older residents who gained British National status before 1997 handover (More)

IN-DEPTH

Inside the Space Force

Time | WJ Hennigan. Under the public's radar, Russia carried out the first observed demonstration of space-based anti-satellite weaponry. Enter the US Space Force, formalized last year as the military's newest branch. (Read)

The Worst Disaster in Great Lakes History

Smithsonian | Susan Stranahan. (From 2014) Exactly 105 years ago today, the SS Eastland rolled onto its side while still docked in the Chicago River. An estimated 850 of Chicago's working-class died—so why has it been forgotten? (Read)

'This Was Abuse'

Vanity Fair | Maureen Ryan. CBS looked the other way for years despite a slew of complaints against showrunner Peter Lenkov, mostly because he excelled at a difficult job. (Read, $$)

Consider the Roadkill

Outside | Katherine LaGrave. It sounds unsettling to some, but there are many arguments for and against eating roadkill—can they all be true? (Read)

ETCETERA

Parents are rushing to form pandemic pods. ($$, NYT)

Fabien Cousteau wants to build this futuristic underwater research station.

Dr. Anthony Fauci flattens a curveball straight into the ground. 

Hair thinning? Learn how Finasteride works to treat hair loss. Start your free visit on the Hims telehealth platform today. #Ad

Fans take social distancing to new heights to watch their teams.

Mapping every state's favorite snack.

Exploding pigeons and other bizarre World War II weaponry. 

An epic shot of the Statue of Liberty during a storm.

... and one of the Lincoln Memorial.

A realistic evaluation of most dogs' brainpower. 

Clickbait: Venice places restrictions on overweight gondola riders.

Historybook: Jacques Cartier claims Canada for France (1534); Aviation pioneer Amelia Earhart born (1897); Machu Picchu is rediscovered (1911); Apollo 11 splashes safely in the Pacific (1969); HBD Jennifer Lopez (1969).

"Never do things others can do and will do, if there are things others cannot do or will not do."

- Amelia Earhart

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