Morning Brew - ☕️ Change of plans

TikTok is suing the U.S. government...
August 24, 2020 View Online | Sign Up

Daily Brew

The Motley Fool

Good morning and welcome back to the week. This is your friendly reminder that Spotify will almost certainly do its Spotify Wrapped "year in review" thing again, and instead of being caught defenseless, you can craft your own Spotify Wrapped destiny. It's not too late for a top 5 you'll be proud of.

MARKETS YTD PERFORMANCE

NASDAQ

11,311.80

+ 26.07%

S&P

3,397.16

+ 5.15%

DJIA

27,930.33

- 2.13%

GOLD

1,947.40

+ 28.12%

10-YR

0.636%

- 128.40 bps

OIL

42.25

- 30.98%

*As of market close

  • Markets: Many thought the stock market would reverse its epic climb without a fresh stimulus package from Congress. That emergency relief seems as far away as ever, yet the S&P still hit a record last week. 
  • More markets: Short positions in U.S. stocks (when an investor bets that a stock's price will fall) have reached their lowest level in more than a decade, the FT reports.

SOCIAL MEDIA

TikTok on the Clock and the Party Don’t Stop

TikTok back to school

Francis Scialabba

And by party we mean legal action. Over the weekend, Chinese-owned social media giant TikTok confirmed reports that it'll sue the U.S. government today.

The backstory: On Aug. 6, as we all collectively wondered how it was August already, President Trump signed an executive order blocking all U.S. transactions with TikTok owner ByteDance in 45 days. The U.S. government has deemed TikTok a national security threat because of a Chinese law that could compel it to fork over Americans’ personal data to Beijing.

  • As we shifted into “wait, does this mean September is next?” mode on Aug. 14, Trump stepped on the gas pedal, inking another order that gave ByteDance 90 days to divest all U.S. TikTok operations. 
  • Now TikTok is mounting a defense, saying the president's executive order denied its right to due process. It has repeatedly denied it could be strong-armed by the Chinese government. 

But ByteDance still has to drop TikTok in the U.S.

And the horserace to buy it is very much still on. 

Where it stands: Early leader Microsoft is still “the favorite” at 2–1 odds, says Axios’s Dan Primack, who handicapped the race last Friday. Microsoft broke from the gate first, negotiating with the White House weeks before any of us were the wiser. Plus, it has a war chest worthy of Secretariat. 

  • But Oracle (5–2 odds), another enterprise tech company, is only about a length behind. It helps that some execs are buddies with Trump. 
  • Twitter (20–1) is in the mix as well, but it’s more like a colt rounding the far turn as the other two thunder toward the finish line. It would need a financial sponsor, and while being Trump's favorite platform, it isn't his favorite company

Looking ahead...we’ve got 22 days left on the clock. President Trump has said he’d be okay with a sale to either Microsoft or Oracle.

        

2020

Your Turn, GOP

Republican National Convention 2020

Logan Cyrus/Getty Images

If the national presidential conventions were the Super Bowl, J.Lo would have just left the halftime stage and the Republicans would be receiving the second-half kickoff. 

Tonight, they’ll begin their own convention and make the case that President Trump deserves a second term. 

  • The Democrats held their own convention last week, all-virtual and generally without production hiccups.
  • The Republicans had initially intended to host theirs in Charlotte, NC...then Jacksonville, FL...but the coronavirus made large in-person events untenable.

What the GOP is planning: President Trump told Fox News on Thursday that “we’re going to have more of it live than what they did,” though we don’t know specifics. We do know that two former producers of the show The Apprentice (starring Trump) are involved in the planning, according to the NYT

In terms of economic themes, the convention is expected to highlight President Trump’s actions on trade, deregulation, and emergency aid during the pandemic. 

Previews: The AP has a good one, and here’s the entire speaker list.

Fox News

        

WORK

Companies Double Back on Return-to-Work Plans

We Brew employees had marked Sept. 8 as the moment we’d finally get to examine our coworkers’ new facial hair up close see our colleagues in person. But alas, we won’t get to evaluate those mutton chops until at least next March. 

  • The Brew isn’t the only one backing off reopening plans, reports the WSJ. In an August survey by the Pacific Business Group on Health, 57% of major U.S. employers said they'd postponed return-to-work plans because of recent bumps in coronavirus infections. 

One catalyst for that flip-flop? Many school districts announced plans for remote or hybrid learning, throwing a protractor into working parents’ plans to return to the office. 

Another factor? Running an IRL office is going to be much costlier than before due to the pandemic. If/when companies return to in-person work, they’ll be required to reorient their operations to ensure the safety of their workers. That spending will drag down profits and creditworthiness, according to a Moody’s analysis.

Finally, companies are hesitating to bring employees back to the office because they're concerned about the legal liability they'll shoulder should someone get sick. GOP lawmakers are pushing for protections in the next coronavirus bill. 

        

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The Motley Fool

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And it’s no secret we are entirely inept at writing in Old English. 

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The Fool only issues this alert when cofounders David and Tom Gardner independently research and select the same stock. In other words: it’s rarer than getting a fantasy novel published.

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CULTURE

NYC's Museums Hope You'll Rembrandt Them

Ferris Bueller and friends at the museum

Giphy

Grab your monocle and rehearse your chin stroking—NYC’s museums and cultural institutions are allowed to open today for the first time since March.

The typical COVID measures will be in place: 25% occupancy, a face mask mandate, and rules that enforce social distancing.

Despite the restrictions, reopening the city’s museums is an important milestone for an industry that’s been decimated by pandemic-related restrictions on indoor gatherings. The world-famous Metropolitan Museum of Art, for example, laid off 79 staff members in August and furloughed others during the monthslong closure. 

It’s also an important milestone for New York City and its battle with COVID-19. Once the worst outbreak in the U.S. by far, NYC's hospitalization rate last Wednesday dropped to its lowest level since March 18. 

But is it enough to save the city? The future of New York has quickly turned into the most heated debate since Yanny vs. Laurel, with some arguing the pandemic has stripped the city of its status as a cultural epicenter. Reopened museums will put that theory to the test.

        

CALENDAR

The Week Ahead

Jerome Powell testifying before Congress

U.S. Federal Reserve

The biggest economic event on the calendar this week arrives on Thursday, when Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak about the Fed's monetary policy framework review it's been working on for almost two years.

Monday: USPS Postmaster General Louis DeJoy testifies before House committee

Tuesday: New home sales; earnings (Salesforce, Best Buy, Medtronic); we get to watch Luka play basketball again

Wednesday: Durable goods; earnings (Dick’s, RBC, Tiffany) 

Thursday: The Fed’s virtual Jackson Hole symposium begins; second reading of Q2 GDP; jobless claims; earnings (Dollar General, Dollar Tree, TD Bank)

Friday: Personal income and spending data

        

WHAT ELSE IS BREWING

  • The Trump administration said it's authorizing the emergency use of a convalescent plasma treatment for hospitalized coronavirus patients. 
  • The U.S. House passed legislation aimed at reversing recent changes to the Postal Service and plugging it with $25 billion ahead of the election, though it’s likely DOA in the GOP-controlled Senate. 
  • Tropical Storm Laura and Hurricane Marco are aiming their sights on Louisiana in a never-before-seen twin strike on the Gulf of Mexico this week.
  • Schools across the U.S. are struggling to secure laptops for students this fall, per an AP investigation.
  • Box office report: a pleasant surprise. In the first real weekend back for many movie theater chains, Russell Crowe's Unhinged brought in more than $4 million.

BREW'S BETS

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Fun with the stock market: Watch its collapse and recovery in less than a minute. Then, check out this cool art that's based on stock charts.

Reddit knows best: Here's a list of simple life hacks everyone should follow. 

*This is sponsored advertising content

FROM THE CREW

Start Talking

On Mondays, we present some of the most knotty business topics of the day, give you a few balanced resources, and encourage you to discuss with friends, family, and coworkers. 

This week’s topic: Uber and Lyft are poised to shut down service in California over the state's AB5 law. AB5 went into effect in January and requires gig economy companies to reclassify independent contractors as employees, thus entitling them to more benefits. Uber and Lyft are fighting it with everything they’ve got. 

        

CROSSWORD

Props to Brew reader Jessica Goldstein for creating this week's excellent Brew Crossword. You can give it a spin here.

Remember, we're now accepting reader submissions for crosswords. It's a great hobby to learn during the pandemic, so if you enjoy solving crosswords every week, try your hand at making one.

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Written by Eliza Carter, Alex Hickey, and Neal Freyman

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