The Opening Tip

• The Clippers are a game away from history
• #PlayoffRondo is back 
• We were, um, wrong about the Heat
• Tonight’s a big night for Brad Stevens

1. The Lead: The Clippers are about to break through a ceiling they’ve lived under for 50 years

The Clippers are up 3-1 in their series against the frisky-but-ultimately-phony Nuggets, with a chance to close out the series tonight at 6:30 p.m.

Should they do so, they’ll do something they’ve never done before: Advance to the semi-finals of the NBA’s postseason.

From Buffalo to San Diego to Los Angeles, with Bill Walton, Elton Brand, Chris Paul or Blake Griffin, whether owned by racist trash bag Donald Sterling or tech bro Steve Ballmer, the Clippers have never won two rounds in the same playoffs in 15 different tries.

(Even the Timberwolves, Grizzlies, Kings and Magic have done that.)

How -- in the most attractive market in basketball  -- is that possible?

Two reasons:

1. Longtime owner Donald Sterling, mostly, who combined old fashioned racism with incompetency and used to do things like question whether or not his players really needed extra pairs of socks.  
2. A few examples of catastrophic meltdowns. 

In 2014, in the second round against the Thunder with the series tied 2-2, the Clippers were in excellent shape to win Game 5, when Chris Paul suddenly became possessed by Dion Waiters, choking spectacularly in the game’s final 49 seconds.

In 2015, up 3-1 in the series at a point and up 19 in Game 6, the Clippers allowed the Josh Smith and Corey Brewer-led Rockets, with James Harden sitting on the bench, to stage a miracle comeback to force a deciding Game 7, which Houston won easily.

Other than that, L.A. has reached the second round only three times: In 2006, when they lost to the Suns in seven; in 2012, when they were swept by the Spurs, and in 1976, as the Buffalo Braves, when they lost to the Celtics in six.

They’ll likely beat Denver tonight and unceremoniously break the glass ceiling that’s entrapped their franchise since 1970, which is the type of thing that happens when you have Kawhi Leonard.

2. #PlayoffRondo has risen

There are four definites in this world:

• Death,
• Taxes,
• Doris Burke saying the same anecdote about Jaylen Brown during every Celtics broadcast,
• And Rajon Rondo turning into a good player during the playoffs.

The Lakers are up 3-1 on the Rockets, and Rondo, who returned to the bubble to start the second round, is averaging 12.5 points, 7.5 assists, 4.5 rebounds and 2.5 steals. He’s shooting 54.1 percent overall and 41.2 percent from 3 with a plus-21 mark overall. He’s back ...  and the worst part is, he’s doing it for the Lakers.

3. “We’ll say Bucks in five”

Here’s what we wrote before the Bucks-Heat series started:
 

Oops. Turns out we were wrong. We underestimated how compatible this team is. Their two best players -- Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo -- don't shoot 3s, but every other player shoots, passes within the offense, dribbles, tries on defense, and looks generally very punchable.

Give the Heat credit; they’ve been quietly stockpiling talent and building an optimal rotation for 2020 basketball over the last few years, and they made beating a team once on a 70-win pace look rather easy. We all mocked Jimmy Butler for taking a paycheck over a chance at a title, and now he’s got a chance at both. 

4. Tonight is a mini reckoning for Brad Stevens

Brad Stevens is a really good and maybe great NBA coach, and he has avoided criticism in Boston for seven years for mostly good reasons.

(Here’s how Dan Shaughnessy puts it: “This is Stevens’s seventh season, and the affable coach has enjoyed a free ride. Celtics fans love him and the local sports media cover him the way Fox covers President Trump. Swell.”)

He’s right. In general, Celtics fans (one of us included) are overwhelmingly positive. They’re the only group that can lionize Leon Powe (that’s the good side) and support Brian Scalebrine as a color announcer (that’s the terrible side). To them, the Celtics are going to win, because they are the balls -- and there’s no other reason why.

If they aren’t the balls tonight, and they do lose, for some other reason why, Stevens won’t be fired, nor should that idea even be entertained.

But he will …

• … have lost a series to the team the Celtics have outscored by 32 points through six games.  

• … have been partially responsible for the loss in Game 6, when he refused to use his challenge in 58 minutes of basketball. 

• … be the only coach in Celtics history to blow a 2-0 series lead twice. In fact, no Celtics coach had done so once before the 2018 Celtics blew a 2-0 lead over the Cavs in 2018.

Again -- he won’t be fired if they lose tonight -- but his approval rating will be something less than 100 percent.

[READ: Nick Nurse knows how to work the refs. What about you, Brad Stevens?]

5. By the Numbers

17.8 points 

69.7 percent

7 of 10 games

0 times

6.  Quick hits

• Michael Porter Jr., noted corona truther, wants more touches.
• Shaq is still angry that Steve Nash has more MVPs than him. 
• Oh, by the way, Steve Nash is Brooklyn’s new coach.  
• Mychal Thompson posted a throwback picture of him and Klay, which also included his Google search, which was “klay thompson parents.”

7.  Off the press

• Kyle Lowry’s success isn’t about “little things” [True Hoop]
• There’s no bigger move than going small in these NBA playoffs [The Ringer]
• The Bucks played it safe and made the wrong kind of history [538]