Editor's Pick: lowest point in February?

(The Editor's Pick is a new newsletter from The Hindu that provides a snapshot of the most important stories from today's edition of our newspaper, along with a note from our top editors on why we chose to give prominence to these stories.)

A study commissioned by the Department of Science and Technology has stated that India passed the peak of COVID-19 cases in September and that it can expect the minimum point of the pandemic by February. The study titled “COVID-19 India National Supermodel” was put together by a 7-member expert panel of mathematicians and epidemiologists. The study also says that ICMR's projection that about 7% of the population had been infected in August is an underestimation, and that it would probably have been 14 per cent. This would mean that about 30% of the population has been infected by now.

The study also warned that its estimates do not factor in a spike triggered by festival crowds. Meanwhile, Union Health Minister Harsh Vardhan said that "gross negligence" in Kerala during the Onam festival led to the massive spike in cases in the State, and used it as a warning for other States ahead of the coming festival season. Also, on the same day, the head of the national expert panel on the pandemic, V.K. Paul, said that a surge in cases during winter was possible, given the experience of western countries where winter has set in, and also considering the rise in population in northern States during the period.

Writing in The Hindu earlier, infectious disease experts T. Jacob John and M.S. Seshadri had said that a 35% infection in the population pre-peak would mean that another 35% would be infected post peak. This would mean that 30% of the population would be left to sustain the virus after the pandemic reaches its lowest point — which is the endemic stage. This is where the vaccine needs to kick in; otherwise the disease will keep showing peaks and lows and causing deaths among senior citizens. As per the Central government schedule, India is ready to begin vaccination by March, which suits the February ebb of the pandemic as suggested by the study. The fact that the study shows a numeric path to the end of the pandemic, though with the risk that it could be upset by festival congregations and seasonal changes, is what makes this story important.