Good morning. Let’s basketball.
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The Astronomer, Johannes Vermeer
As you may recall, the Minnesota Timberwolves have the No. 1 pick in the 2020 NBA Draft. This does not seem to be an exceptional year to have the No. 1 pick: there’s no Zion Williamson or, hell, Karl-Anthony Towns here. It appears that most major mock drafts are settling on the top tier of three players — Anthony Edwards, LaMelo Ball and James Wiseman — but there is not consensus on a top prospect among them.
Here’s the pickle for Minnesota: of the three, given the presence of Towns and D’Angelo Russell as the Timberwolves core, only Edwards would seem to make sense, and even that’s not totally clean. What the Wolves really need, in my estimation, is shooting and energetic wing defense. The jury’s out on those aspects of Edwards’ game.
Wiseman is a center, and so is Towns in today’s NBA. Unless you think Wiseman will be better than Towns within a few years, that doesn’t seem like the right choice there.
Ball could be absolutely electric, but he would take the ball out of Towns and Russell’s hands, and unless you think Ball will quickly be better than Russell, what’s the point there? Russell isn’t a classical set-the-table point guard by any stretch, but Ball’s gift is his vision and shot creation, and that negates a bunch of what Russell brings. A Ball-Russell backcourt would also likely have a lot of defensive problems, especially with Towns as the anchor.
As I said, Edwards is closer to a fit with Russell given that he’s not so much a lead guard but can attack and score. He’s built to defend good guards but that doesn’t really mean anything until you prove you’re committed to doing the job.
So there isn’t a clear-cut future star, and there isn’t a really perfect fit among the top contenders for the No. 1 pick. Logic dictates that in this case you trade down or trade out. And that’s exactly what it seems the Timberwolves should do. Don’t overthink it. You need more good players, and trading down or out will allow you to pick up assets.
Plus, the Timberwolves owe their 2021 pick to the Warriors if it lands outside the top three. Minnesota surely does not intend to compete for the No. 1 pick in 2021. So the premium will be on getting good now to minimize the impact from that pick, since this front office made the Russell-Andrew Wiggins deal that sent that pick out. Maybe that’s not great process. But it’s just a fact that the incentive to be bad next season is much lower for the Wolves because of that trade. Veteran players are much more likely to help you win games than rookies.
An interesting wrinkle is that there are several players later in the lottery that project to be much better fits for Minnesota: Onyeka Okongwu, Isaac Okoro, Deni Avdija, Devin Vassell. Minnesota also has the No. 17 pick via Brooklyn, so if the pool of late-lottery players the Wolves like is a bit bigger, there’s a chance by trading down they could pick up two of them, especially if someone like Vassell slips.
If you can trade down to the mid- or late-lottery and pick up a decent player who is immediately in your rotation and still get two promising prospects from this draft that fit with Towns and Russell, that’s a win.
It’s the most basic equation, but just because it’s basic doesn’t mean it’s wrong!
Judging other teams’ offers and taking the right player back in a trade is obviously much more difficult. I’m excited to see what offers teams start to leak out so we can get a handle on the level of players in play here.
The South Is Only A Home
Vincent Goodwill of Yahoo! Sports reports that the NBA and the Raptors are trying to figure out where on Earth the team will play next season given continued restrictions on border crossings between the United States and Canada. Presuming that border crossings will remain heavily restricted due to COVID-19 in 2021 gives me a stomach ache, frankly. But it’s prudent.
Goodwill floats Louisville as a potential host. Louisville has a pro-level basketball arena and is certainly capable of hosting an NBA team. It’d also be a big deal among local sports fans, in a way sticking the Raptors as a second team at a mega-city arena (Barclays Center in Brooklyn, Berto Center in Chicago) wouldn’t.
But it sounds like no decision has been made and there’s work to do at the NBA Board of Governors level.
Meanwhile, we don’t really know what’s going to happen with the G League season. A mega showcase/bubble light scenario has been rumored. I’m sad that it appears the Capitanes de Ciudad de México won’t likely be a part of any G League season. They were scheduled to join the G League this season, potentially as a test and trial balloon for a future NBA expansion team in Mexico City. This whole COVID-19 thing has assuredly put a damper on NBA interest in adding international teams.
Links
The Pelicans hired Stan Van Gundy as head coach on a 4-year deal. Sean Highkin from Bleacher Report talked to Van Gundy about his thirst to coach this team and a certain wunderkind player on it (plus whether he’ll keep tweeting). Here’s Dan Devine on what New Orleans needs most from SVG: defensive identity.
Two big pieces on Anthony Davis. Here’s David Thorpe’s essay on A.D.’s incredible and new skillset. And here’s Mike Prada on A.D. as a Bill Russell-like standard bearer.
Three reporters I really like surveyed 20 agents (who remained anonymous) for The Athletic. ($) There’s one truly stupid quote from an agent in there that claims NBA players are being manipulated into supporting the Movement for Black Lives. That agent should really examine his opinion of his own intelligence and shut up and listen to the players for a while.
In related news, LeBron James talks to the New York Times about More Than a Vote, which has recruited 40,000 poll workers for Black communities.
Kelly Dwyer on Daryl Morey. ($)
Kevin Draper in the New York Times advises people to not overreact to bad sports ratings right now.
Rob Mahoney on the Bucks at a precarious crossroads.
Mike Schmitz at ESPN Insider on draft sleepers. ($)
R.I.P. Quibi. Hope that means the Donald Sterling doc I wrote about a few months ago will be available to everyone now.
Be excellent to each other.
