Good morning. NBA offseason action gets underway TODAY at noon Eastern as the transaction moratorium is slated to be lifted in advance of Wednesday’s NBA Draft and Friday’s beginning of free agency. And that rumor mill is churning … Let’s basketball.
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The Haarlem Painters’ Guild, Jan de Bray
Hello, Brooklyn
Blockbuster news from ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski, Zach Lowe and Ramona Shelburne who report that if James Harden were to ask the Rockets to trade him, the Brooklyn Nets are “rising to the top of his list” of preferred destinations. The report is heavily laden with caution and conditional phrasing — ESPN is not reporting that Harden has requested a trade, ESPN is not reporting that the Nets are working on a deal for Harden, none of that is the case right now, according to this reporting.
But according to the report Harden has discussed potentially playing together in Brooklyn with Kevin Durant, he has soured on the Rockets’ future and the Rockets have communicated to other teams the type of package they would command in any Harden deal.
Even the faint murmurs of a potential deal are so alluring that it’s worth engaging a thought process on whether the trio would work.
Assuming Harden eventually does push for a trade and the Nets conjure up a package that can satisfy Houston (there’s no way Brooklyn can put together a better package than several other teams, but I digress), would a team featuring Harden, Durant and Kyrie Irving actually work? Those are three of the most ball-dominant players in the league, and at this point Kyrie and Harden are fairly similar in play styles as lead ballhandlers. We now have multiple seasons with Harden paired with a second high-usage player — first Chris Paul and then Russell Westbrook — and have seen that The Beard was as effective as ever. But we’ve never seen him do that with two other high-usage players, and we’ve never seen Kyrie navigate that either.
We did see Durant succeed gloriously paired with Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson in Golden State. Hell, KD’s entire NBA career has had him paired with high-usage guards. Harden is more ball-dominant than Curry and Kyrie is more ball-dominant than Thompson. But the Warriors showed the blueprint of how this would work: everyone takes a hit off their usage rate and benefits in their efficiency. The key is that everyone has to accept it. If Harden and Durant are conspiring on a deal, and so long as Kyrie is on board too, they will make the sacrifices necessary to succeed quickly. Perhaps one or more will grow tired of the arrangement after time, but they’ll be so high off their own glorious fumes at the beginning that they’ll accept the role changes.
Durant would play more like a big man (as he often did when teamed with Westbrook), Kyrie and Harden would alternatively slip into the role of off-ball assassin. This would require both Kyrie and Harden to put more effort in moving without the ball — this is something Harden does little of these days, though it can be excused given his enormous offensive load in Houston. Effort is never ever an issue with Durant, and given each player’s gravity and efficiency a Brooklyn offense would rival Golden State’s best efforts, replacing Curry and Klay’s historic deep shooting with Kyrie and Harden’s talent for getting to the rim and setting up teammates. I’m quite sure no team has ever had three players this good off the dribble. You’d want Harden and Kyrie to give up some isolation possessions in favor of pick and roll with the most dangerous 7-footer of all time. You’d want to maximize the trio’s prodigous passing ability by running some actual plays. (I bet Steve Nash can come up with something.) The possibilities on offense are really endless.
On the other end … well, Kyrie has never been a plus defender, and Harden has been so overwhelmingly dedicated to supernova offense that he’s gotten a pass. One hopes lighter offensive roles and Durant’s insistence would get Irving and Harden more effort and effectiveness on that end. But the Nets could frankly start a lockdown wing with zero offensive skills and a rim-protecting center with no range and get away with it because the other three are so potent on offense. This — defense — is what could stop these hypothetical, theoretical Nets from being better than the 2016-19 Warriors, though: Steph is a better defender than Kyrie, Klay is a better and more committed defender than Harden, Durant was younger than he’ll be in Brooklyn and the Nets won’t have the luxury of a defender the caliber of Draymond Green in their line-ups.
The Nets would totally work if they traded everything for James Harden. They’d become the instant title favorite, even over the Lakers. Durant won two titles on teams like that within the past four years. L.A.’s size would cause some issues, but Brooklyn’s perimeter weaponry would cause as many or more. The Nets would be must-watch television every night, and an enormous coup for the NBA in New York City. It would probably be the best thing that’s happened for the NBA since the rise of the Warriors.
Everything is mere suggestion and rumor right now — ESPN is careful to frame this as only a seedling of a possibility. But folks, what a possibility it is.
A Schröd Move
Woj among others reports that the Lakers have reached a deal with the tear-it-down Thunder to send Danny Green and the No. 28 pick to OKC for Dennis Schroder. The trade won’t actually happen until draft night since L.A. owes its 2021 pick to New Orleans and you can’t trade successive picks — but it sounds like the deal is otherwise set.
This is just another indication the Thunder will rip their team down to the studs this offseason as they rebuild with a new batch of stars acquired via draft or trade. Chris Paul and Steven Adams are the next dominoes to fall, plus there’s a shot at a Danilo Gallinari sign-and-trade. One presumes OKC is already shopping Green. If he lasts a few months in OKC and hits the buy-out market, he’ll be a very popular target for contending teams, though the Lakers will be off the table.
For the Lakers, it’s hard to imagine them finding a way to land a better guard than Schroder given the assets they were working with going into this offseason, especially considering they haven’t yet given up Kyle Kuzma. In other words, L.A. could theoretically have gotten a better guard to step in by trading Kuz and their draft pick together (and perhaps Green — it’s tough to gauge how much he is asset here vs. matching salary). By keeping Kuz for now, the Lakers have another chip to cash in should Rajon Rondo and Avery Bradley leave in free agency and should L.A. feel like it needs one more guard better than what’s available from the ring-chasing circuit. (Note to self: we don’t talk about Alex Caruso as a tradable asset but perhaps should. Except he’s just the kind of guard L.A. would need in a trade anyway.)
Schroder is a good scorer who shot above league average from deep for the first time in his career last season. Whether he’s a better fit off the bench or as a starter really depends on the other guards L.A. brings back. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is almost assuredly going to be a starter, and if Caruso and Schroder are the two other top guards in the mix, it likely makes sense to start A.C. and bring the German off the bench. Schroder finished second in Sixth Man of the Year voting last season behind Montrezl Harrell. Being a reserve gunslinger is kind of a perfect role for him, though you wish he was a 20% better passer. One issue here is that the Lakers are giving up a late first-round pick — a salary-controlled asset — for a player who will be a free agent hitting his age-projected prime next summer. If Schroder works out, keeping him will be costly.
Green is a three-time champion, a wonderful locker room presence and a high-effort defender. He’s been a better shooter than Schroder over the course of their careers, but Green doesn’t create offense and it’s becoming harder to ignore how brutal his offense has been in the past several playoff runs (he hasn’t shot better than 40% from the floor in the playoffs since 2016!). L.A.’s defense was its calling card in 2019-20, and L.A.’s defense should still be excellent without Green. The Lakers got a much younger player (assuming they re-sign him) who fits better. Something tells me we’ll see Green come May and June, albeit not likely with the Thunder.
Also … um … is Sam Presti cooking something up with the draft?
Links
Sam Vecenie’s absolutely mammoth draft guide is out at The Athletic. ($) It’s like 100,000 words! Like literally!
Kevin Pelton grades the Schroder trade for ESPN+. ($)
Anthony Davis is opting out to sign a longer-term deal with the Lakers. That will impact the rest of L.A.’s free agency plans, though it’s highly likely they’ve known about it for a while and that informed the Schroder trade.
Marc Spears Q&A with Anthony Edwards.
Kevin O’Connor and Jonathan Tjarks break down the draft’s European prospects.
Kevin Porter, Jr. was arrested Sunday on gun charges.
Be excellent to each other.
