The L.A. teams increased the gap in the West

The richer get rich, though there's still plenty of hope of ascension for one other team.

Nov 23

Good morning. Let’s basketball.

Two Women at a Window, Bartolomé Esteban Murillo

During the regular season last year, the L.A. Lakers and L.A. Clippers were the best teams in the Western Conference. The gap wasn’t enormous between the Clippers and the pack, led by the Denver Nuggets. And in fact, as no one will soon forget, the Nuggets beat the Clippers in the playoffs. But the Lakers and Clippers entered last season as something akin to co-favorites in the West, finished with the two best records in the West, and one of them went on to win the title.

This offseason, both L.A. teams — still with every advantage they had last season — have had strong early offseasons while Denver and the pack chasing them have not. The gap, for whatever it matters, is growing.

The Lakers have now added Dennis Schroder, Montrezl Harrell, Wesley Matthews and Marc Gasol, losing Danny Green, Rajon Rondo, Dwight Howard, JaVale McGee and Avery Bradley. (Markieff Morris’ status is unresolved.) L.A. had a sterling defense and a pretty strong offense last season; the main offensive challenges were long-range shooting and shot creation outside of LeBron James, Anthony Davis and Rondo. Schroder is a strong creator, Harrell is a apt bucket producer and finisher and Gasol is the grease every beautiful machine needs. The defense could very well fall off a little, especially with a hectic playing schedule and the need to conserve energy after a short offseason. That said, Matthews is every bit as good as Green and Bradley on that end and Gasol is brilliant. I’m equal parts intrigued and queasy about a bench unit revolving around Schroder, Kyle Kuzma and Harrell. But the team is unquestionably better than the 2019-20 edition. And that edition won the championship.

The Clippers took losing Harrell in stride, picking up Serge Ibaka in free agency. They also flipped Landry Shamet for Luke Kennard, a plausible upgrade, lost JaMychal Green but retained Marcus Morris. The Nuggets famously played Harrell off the floor for defensive reasons in the playoffs. No one is playing Serge Ibaka off the floor for defensive reasons. Plus, Ibaka has become a willing shooter who will relieve paint-packing for Kawhi Leonard and Paul George’s benefit in a way Harrell never could. Kennard is as good or better as a shooter than Shamet, and adds some playmaking ability to the mix, a sorely needed attribute for certain Clippers line-ups. Losing Green is tough, and it may elevate Patrick Patterson’s minutes to slightly uncomfortable levels. The Morris contract was surprisingly large (4 years, $64 million), but they already spent a pick on him and he’ll soak up a lot of minutes in a season in which you expect lots of Kawhi Leonard load management. These Clippers feel more reliable with Ibaka and Kennard. Plus, they still have assets in Lou Williams and Patrick Beverley (and Kennard, frankly) if additional moves are required.

Is it weird that the Lakers gained Harrell and I’m calling that improvement, and the Clippers lost Harrell and I’m calling that improvement too? Not really. Harrell replaces the Howard-McGee platoon. He won’t be starting, in all likelihood, and the Lakers have plenty of big men to cover his weaknesses or use over him situationally. The Clips with Harrell didn’t have an Anthony Davis or a Marc Gasol to protect themselves from Harrell’s weaknesses. No offense to Ivica Zubac. Meanwhile, Ibaka is a much better fit with the style that Kawhi and P.G. play than Harrell was. I’m not sure I’d say Ibaka is better than Harrell or Harrell is better than Ibaka. But they really fit where they are now.

Now, the Nuggets, the top team in the pack chasing the L.A. squads in the West last season and, again, I’ll keep saying it, the team that actually beat the Clippers in the playoffs last season. There was some shuffling happening there, and I legitimately think they are a worse team going into 2020-21. Jerami Grant and Mason Plumlee left for the Pistons — that’s your starting small forward and back-up center, gone. The replacement was … JaMychal Green, a power forward who will play both big spots behind a re-signed Paul Millsap and Nikola Jokic. The Nuggets will have to either play small when Jokic is off the floor or give Bol Bol and/or Isaiah Hartenstein real minutes. Denver let Torrey Craig walk — that’s another useful wing who played in some big spots — and added small point guard Facundo Campazzo. Losing Grant, Craig and Plumlee for Green, Hartenstein and Campazzo is truly a downgrade. There’s no two ways about it.

The Nuggets do have a path to improvement, though: Nikola Jokic is only 25, Jamal Murray is only 23 and Michael Porter, Jr. is only 22. Denver got worse in the offseason to date but can still be better next season because their three most important players are 25 or younger. The gap between the Nuggets and the L.A. teams wasn’t enormous, and while the L.A. teams both improved in the offseason they are relying on older stars. So it is not inconceivable that the Nuggets could catch them and beat them (again, in the case of the Clippers).

The rest of the West is a bit muddled. The expected Warriors surge will suffer greatly from Klay Thompson’s injury. The Rockets haven’t exactly been torn down yet. The Jazz? Yeah, the Jazz, sure, woo Derrick Favors. The Mavericks had a smart offseason but we don’t know for sure when Kristaps Porzingis will be back in action. Only the Wolves, Kings and Thunder will enter the season very likely to miss the playoffs. You wouldn’t put the Spurs in that grouping but it’s tough to put them anywhere else, and they are certainly nowhere near the top of the West. The Blazers got better but have a long way to go. The Suns got much better but have a much longer way to go. The Pelicans and Grizzlies have a long way to go.

The West remains top-heavy. The teams that came in favorites last season remain the favorites. One team looks really poised to challenge, despite a rough offseason to date. Such is the state of the Western Conference less than one month before opening night.

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Our Pick’Em Winner

We had a subscribers only NBA Draft Pick’Em pool last week, and reader Mike M. was the outright winner by getting four of the top five picks correct! He received a 3-month extension on his subscription and I’ve donated $100 to Jacksonville BEAM in his honor. BEAM is a support organization and food bank serving Jacksonville’s beach communities. It’s a great time to give to food banks — we’ll do some more competitions throughout the upcoming season to spread the love.

Congrats to Mike!

The Bogdanovic Quandary

The Hawks signed Bogdan Bogdanovic to an offer sheet on Sunday (4 years, $72 million), giving the Kings until Tuesday to match.

This has all turned into a bit of a disaster for the Kings. They thought they had a sign-and-trade deal to snatch Donte DiVincenzo for the Bucks, but that blew up for some reason (quite possibly due to some hijinks by Bogdanovic’s agent). Then there were rumors of a sign-and-trade with the Pacers that could have potentially netted Myles Turner. Instead, the Kings will either match the offer sheet and be left with an expensive two-guard they can’t trade for a year that makes their other high-priced two-guard (Buddy Hield) disgruntled, or they let him (their third best player) walk for nothing.

It’s a lose-lose, and frankly it’s not often that happens when you have rights to a high-quality restricted free agent.

It’s been a rather disappointing offseason in total for the Kings, outside of landing Ty Haliburton in the draft. Sacramento hasn’t added anyone yet, but has watched Harry Giles, Kent Bazemore and now likely Bogdanovic leave without compensation. Losing talented players is, uh, generally the opposite of what you want to do when you’re a bad team. The new front office was dealt a really tough hand by the old one, but you’re not seeing much creativity to bound out of it, are you?

There are also some major concerns about the franchise owner meddling in basketball operations here.

More Dominoes

Two other major dominoes toppled since our last newsletter on Saturday: Gordon Hayward signed with the Hornets (it doesn’t look like there’s going to be a sign-and-trade to get the Celtics a trade exception and/or player) and Fred VanVleet re-signed with the Raptors. Folks, we’re running out of dominoes.