Good morning. Let’s basketball.
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Coming into the fresh NBA season, one wrinkle of note was that there were a handful of teams who did not make the playoffs last season who expected to do so in this campaign, there weren’t many new spots opening up. Of course, earning a playoff bid in one season doesn’t guarantee anything for the following year. But you can usually pencil in at least half of the playoff field from year to year. Making the playoffs is evidence a team is pretty good, and based on offseason movement and injury situations, you can make reasonable estimates.
For this year, only one playoff team in either conference looked like a sure bet to slip into the lottery: the Oklahoma City Thunder, who traded Chris Paul, Dennis Schroder and Steven Adams and lost Danilo Gallinari. So that “opened up” one playoff spot in the West. Based on trade demands, there was one more team in the West — the Houston Rockets — that you may not necessarily pencil in as returning, but that was up in the air depending on whether they shipped out James Harden and what they received in return. In the East, the eternal No. 8 seed Orlando Magic lost Jonathan Isaac to injury coming in but otherwise maintained their roster. Given their status in recent years, you could assume they’d likely remain on the fringes of the playoff race; you could reasonably give their spot to someone else. But the other seven East playoff teams? You’d expect them back.
The rub is that so many teams are competing for playoff seeds, or at least think they are. We don’t know which of these teams (Knicks, Hawks, Cavaliers, Pelicans, Warriors) will stick around and which will fade. But two weeks in, we can begin assessing our preseason assumptions about whether there are “spots available” for these teams to poach.
In the East, the team some assumed would make way in the top eight — Orlando — is actually doing quite well, tied for the second best record in the entire league. We’ll see if that holds, but that’s discouraging for teams like Atlanta and Washington, who expect to be in the playoffs. I guess some people thought the Pacers might drop? Crazy talk. The Pacers are also off to a hot start. But there is one perennial playoff team that appears to be in enormous trouble two weeks in: the Toronto Raptors. They are 1-5 on the season and actually look worse than that. Tampa has been very unkind to the Raptors; the state of Florida should be ashamed of itself for being such poor hosts (in the win-loss ledger at least).
Miami and Brooklyn have had pretty rough starts, but the Heat went to the NBA Finals and don’t have current injury concerns and the Nets have Kevin Durant. Those teams are making the playoffs. There’s a real chance that whatever is ailing Toronto sticks.
So after all that, based on what we see right now, assuming Orlando stays pretty good and Toronto stays pretty bad and Miami, Milwaukee, Brooklyn, Boston, Indiana and best-team-in-the-league Philadelphia all solidify themselves in the top-8 … there’s one spot up for grabs in the East. Again, it doesn’t work that way in practice: if Cleveland finishes with a better record than Miami, Cleveland’s in and Miami isn’t regardless of the fact that the Heat went to the Finals and the Cavaliers were absolutely dreadful last season. But that’s how I’m trying to think about it in the context of these striving teams currently in the top 8. If you assume a return to form for the 2019-20 playoff teams except for Toronto, there’s one spot for a new team and everyone but Detroit thinks they’re in play for it. That makes for quite an interesting playoff race, especially when you add in the play-in scenarios.
The West is a little different, again. The Phoenix Suns do not appear to be fighting for the spot vacated by OKC. The Suns are taking a playoff spot, and no one is going to stop them. Phoenix might be one of the NBA’s best teams — we need more time to ascertain if Mikal Bridges is as good as he looks, if the defense will hold up, if the bench can actually survive in the West — but it’s almost certainly going to be a playoff team, barring injury. You can’t fake how good they look, not even for two weeks.
So by this logic, we have one team for sure out (OKC) and one team almost assuredly in (Phoenix). Is that it? Setting aside the L.A. teams (both 5-2 like Phoenix and looking as good as you’d expect), I think at this juncture it’s unwise to assume anything. Denver is 2-4 despite Nikola Jokic putting in two weeks of MVP-caliber play. Utah is playing well with Bojan Bogdanovic back in action — Mike Conley looks like a different player than he did this time last year. Brandon Ingram appears to be ascending to All-NBA level?! The Pelicans look quite good. The Mavericks, Rockets and Blazers all have MVP-caliber stars but mitigating circumstances. The Kings looked good until they didn’t; the Warriors seem to be putting together a winning formula; the Spurs have a bad record at 2-4 but DeMar DeRozan has been excellent.
It really looks like the West is pretty wide open after the top three teams. And yes, I’m talking about the Phoenix Suns in the top three teams. I don’t believe it either.
History would suggest that Denver will certainly end up in the playoffs — losing Jerami Grant stings, but it does not produce a “from the 3-seed to the play-in games” bump. I still believe in Portland, Utah and Dallas to grab playoff spots, but the Pelicans look every bit as good as them so far, and I don’t see a compelling reason to disbelieve New Orleans can maintain that. Let’s spend two more weeks with the Warriors now that Draymond Green has returned, Kelly Oubre has broken out of his slump and the team has decided it’s time for Stephen Curry to pop off every night. But Golden State, in my opinion, looks to be roughly on the level of Portland, Utah, Dallas and New Orleans. Maybe a notch behind Utah and Dallas, once Dallas gets Kristaps Porzingis back?
Then there are the Rockets, who seem no closer to trading James Harden than they did before Christmas. Harden has had a few stellar performances and a dud; John Wall’s been pretty good and Christian Wood’s been great. As with the Warriors, we need more time to see this unfold to determine where they fall in the mix. I think it’ll end up on par with the Warriors, who I believe to be roughly on par with those other four playoff hopefuls.
So now we have six teams for four spots, which is just about where we landed before the season. Assuming Phoenix isn’t a total mirage and Denver pulls it together, two of these teams — Portland, Utah, Dallas, New Orleans, Golden State and Houston — will miss the playoffs. I certainly would not be comfortable choosing the two teams who didn’t make the playoffs last season (N.O. and G.S.) at this point.
And that leaves out Sacramento (imploding, per usual), San Antonio (shorthanded and now Derrick White will miss time), Minnesota (missing Karl-Anthony Towns badly) and Memphis (missing Ja Morant badly).
So that’s where we sit two weeks in, looking at the playoff picture as it relates to preseason expectations of the status quo. One spot has seemingly opened up in the East due to a good team falling on its proverbial face. One spot has potentially been taken away in the West because a non-playoff team looks so darn good.
Agree? Disagree?
Scores
Hornets 101, Sixers 118 — Yeah, it’s the Hornets. But Philadelphia’s defense is leaps and bounds better than any other defense in the league by the numbers so far, and the Sixers are 6-1. Joel Embiid has to be near the top of the early MVP rankings.
Knicks 113, Hawks 108 — The New York Knicks are above .500 and, dare I say?, frisky! New York was down 15 in the second half but rallied back behind Julius Randle (All-Star??), R.J. Barrett, Austin Rivers and rookie Immanuel Quickley.
What a win!
Thunder 90, Heat 118 — This is a nice set-up and dunk, but I’m mostly sharing this to spread the gospel of Miami’s Vice Versa jersey and court combo.
Mavericks 113, Rockets 100 — Master class by Luka Doncic, severely outplaying James Harden.
Pacers 118, Pelicans 116 — What a game! Incredibly tough win for Indiana in overtime, especially since Domantas Sabonis fouled out with the Pacers down 10 with 3:46 left in the fourth.
The Pels went ice cold from there, and Victor Oladipo and Myles Turner hit enormous threes to get to overtime. It was back and forth there too until Malcolm Brogdon sealed it with a runner. The Pelicans are good. The Pacers are really good.
Kings 106, Warriors 137 — Good to have you back, Draymond.
Real NBA Dads of Sacramento
So Marvin Bagley III’s dad Marvin Bagley Jr. requested a trade on behalf of his son, then De’Aaron Fox’s dad Aaron Fox tweeted that the Kings should indeed trade Bagley. Credit to Rob Perez on the name of this saga.
Sacramento’s season has taken a dive … but this is just great content and great advice.
League Pass Cup Update
Like I said, the Knicks are frisky. They have a ton of League Pass Cup games coming up, a real chance to hang with Orlando at the top of the table. If the Knicks actually win the League Pass Cup, we’re making a trophy. Anyone know a smelter?
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Schedule
Just five games on Tuesday with an NBA TV doubleheader. No League Pass Cup action. All times Eastern.
Jazz at Nets, 7:30
Lakers at Grizzlies, 8, NBA TV
Timberwolves at Nuggets, 9
Spurs at Clippers, 10
Bulls at Blazers, 10:30, NBA TV
Links
The NBA has left most of the work of dealing with COVID-19 protocols and managing risk to teams. Teams have mostly left it to certain designated staff members. Those staff members are overwhelmed, reports Baxter Holmes.
Kevin Durant is out four games due to exposure to someone with COVID-19, despite Durant testing negative and having had COVID-19 in the spring.
Kevin Pelton at ESPN+ came at the question in my column up top from the other angle: which lottery teams now above .500 are legit? ($)
Michael Pina on Stephen Curry’s interesting contract situation with the Warriors and how the team can manage the last two years on his deal.
Chris Herring on what’s actually wrong with the Pistons.
Brian Windhorst at ESPN+ with some interesting reporting on the delayed, slow Timberwolves sale. I hesitate to aggregate Windy’s words, but it includes some speculation on relocation and the impact on potential league expansion. ($)
David Thorpe in TrueHoop with 13 notes from the first 13 days of action.
William Lou on the Raptors’ struggles.
Kevin O’Connor on Steph Curry’s season to date.
One of my favorite music writers Craig Jenkins on MF Doom.
Georgia, you’re on my mind. Everyone else, be excellent to each other.
