ECONOMY

Your Stimulus Package Order Has Been Confirmed

If President Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus plan were an Amazon package, it’d be sitting in a Cranbury, New Jersey, warehouse getting ready to ship. 

Yesterday, the House followed the Senate in approving a budget plan that will allow Democrats to advance Biden’s stimulus plan without Republican support. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said she’s hoping to pass the bill in the next two weeks, and it could become law by mid-March. 

What about a compromise? Biden had met with 10 Republicans who offered up a much smaller proposal, but the president wasn’t convinced and said he’d favor speed over back-and-forth. 

• “If I have to choose between getting help right now to Americans who are hurting so badly and getting bogged down in a lengthy negotiation or compromising on a bill that’s up to the crisis, that’s an easy choice,” Biden explained yesterday.

The context

Biden’s gargantuan proposal would certainly qualify for the Mt. Rushmore of stimulus packages right next to the historic $2 trillion CARES Act that was signed last March. 

Republicans think $1.9 trillion is too much...and so do some Democrats. The economist Larry Summers, President Obama’s former top economic advisor, warned that the package would overheat the economy and prevent the administration from pursuing other projects down the road. 

But Biden hasn’t budged from his “doing too much is better than doing too little” approach. He cited yesterday’s January jobs report as evidence the economy is still in heaps of trouble.

• The US added just 49,000 jobs in January, below expectations but much better than December’s numbers. The unemployment rate fell from 6.7% to 6.3%.

Looking ahead...if you start to notice a shortage of Red Bull and Bagel Bites in the DC metro area, it’s because staffers will start hammering out the exact language of the bill next week. 

FIREARMS

Trending Up: Gun Sales

Americans purchased more than 2 million firearms last month, an 80% increase from a year earlier, according to a WaPo analysis. It’s the third-highest monthly total on record. 

To understand why, let’s look at the differences between January 2020 and January 2021. 

• In January 2020...we went to concerts, restaurants, and bars.
• In January 2021...a pandemic raged and people needed to find outdoor leisure activities, such as shooting sports. The CEO of Minnesota-based Vista Outdoor told Bloomberg the “primary driver” of higher gun sales is Covid-19. 
• In January 2020...Donald Trump was president.
• In January 2021...Joe Biden took charge, but only after a violent mob attacked the US Capitol Building on Jan. 6. Gun sales tend to rise when a Democrat is elected president (like in 2008 and 2012 with Obama), and they definitely tend to rise when people are scared for their safety and crave protection.  

Some interesting stats to-go: First-time buyers accounted for about 40% of all guns purchased in 2020, according to the National Shooting Sports Foundation. And 40% of total purchases were made by women. 

AUTO

Siri, Drive Us to Georgia

The iCar rumors are heating up again: Kia is reportedly seeking partners to help build fully electric, fully autonomous Apple cars at its West Point, Georgia, factory. 

The backstory: Apple started its secretive Project Titan in 2014 to create an Apple Car, but later sought out partnerships with companies that have, you know, made stuff that doesn’t just fit in a carry-on. Apple’s talked about a vehicular team-up with at least six automakers, according to Nikkei.

What’s in it for Apple?

1) A manufacturing partner in Hyundai-Kia that has the auto supply chain and engineering expertise Apple lacks.

2) Morgan Stanley analyst Katie Huberty explained in a research note that smartphones are a $500 billion market while mobility is worth $10 trillion. “So Apple would only need a 2% share of this market to be the size of their iPhone business.”

When these two brands go out for dinner, how will they split the bill? According to CNBC’s sources, the Kia x Apple collab will be an “Apple Car,” not a Kia Soul with Apple Maps. 

Looking ahead...reports indicate that the first Apple Cars could go into production as soon as 2024. But no agreement has been reached just yet, and Bloomberg wrote last night that talks have recently paused.

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So while you’ll be spending your Sunday chowing down on chicken wings, watching commercials, and yelling “go football team!” E*TRADE will be working hard to make your money work for you. 

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COVID

When Your Vaccine Appointment Is at 4 but You Have a Meeting at 3:45

Here’s the latest from the wide world of jabs.

Variant vanquisher: A new study concluded that the vaccine from AstraZeneca and Oxford University was effective against the “UK variant” of the coronavirus, which is more contagious than the original strain. The EU and UK have greenlighted AstraZeneca’s vaccine, but the FDA won't consider approving it until a US clinical trial has been completed. 

Vaccines appear to be working: In Israel, 80% of people 60 and over received at least one vaccine dose by January 15. Now, Covid cases among that population are rapidly declining, down 46% compared to their mid-January peak.

You may get to an NFL stadium this year, after all: The league has offered up all 30 of its venues as mass vaccination sites.

Big picture numbers: More than 124 million doses have been administered globally, per Bloomberg. The US has given 38.5 million doses.

GAMBLING

Super Bowl LV: More Gambling Opportunities, Less Gambling

Will Tom Brady throw for 301.5 yards? How long will the national anthem last? Will Tony Romo mention GameStop? 

If these questions get your heart thumping, you could be one of 23.2 million Americans who are expected to spend $4.3 billion betting on the Super Bowl tomorrow. Sounds like a ton, but in fact it’s a 37% decrease from last year, according to the American Gaming Association.  

That’s surprising...and it’s not. 36 million more Americans have access to legal sportsbooks this year thanks to relaxed regulations on the sector. But Covid-19 will likely dampen the action, especially at physical venues. 

Zoom out: Despite a down year for Super Bowl bets, investors are bullish on the future of sports gambling. 

• DraftKings stock has jumped 30% over the past month. 
• Penn National Gaming, owner of Barstool Sports, gained 9% yesterday to hit an all-time high. It’s up 45% in the last month. 

Play along: We created a game based on fun “prop bets” for you to play virtually (or in-person) with friends during the Super Bowl tomorrow. Check it out.

WHAT ELSE IS BREWING

• Fox Business canceled “Lou Dobbs Tonight,” its highest-rated show. 
• GameStop stock climbed 19% after Robinhood lifted more restrictions on the trading of certain meme stocks. It’s lost $18 billion in value from its Jan. 28 peak. 
• Venmo is under investigation by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau over its debt-collection practices.
• Amazon lost its bid to postpone a union vote at an Alabama warehouse. Voting will begin next week. 
• HBO is releasing a docuseries about sexual abuse allegations against director Woody Allen later this month.
• Oatly is reportedly considering an IPO at a valuation of ~$10 billion. 

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BREW'S BETS

V helpful: A curated list of financial tools and resources for creatives.

Weekend conversation starters:

• Should you work with your friends and family? Morning Brew CEO Alex Lieberman says no. 
• What could you talk about for 30 minutes right now, without prepping at all? 
• What’s your favorite burner on the stove? If you have an answer, you’re an adult, congrats.
• What would you order from a classic 24-hour diner if you could hang out with a friend there right now?

GAMES

Beers Around the World

The Brew Crossword is on vacation this week somewhere down and across from the cold Northeast winter.

In its place, let’s do some Super Bowl-adjacent trivia on the topic of beer. See if you can name the home countries of the following beer brands. If you get a 10/10, congrats...but you might spend too much time in bars. 

1. Labatt
2. Carlsberg
3. Presidente
4. Red Stripe
5. Sapporo
6. Modelo
7. Singha
8. Castle Lager
9. Peroni
10. Coopers

ANSWER

1. Labatt = Canada
2. Carlsberg = Denmark 
3. Presidente = Dominican Republic 
4. Red Stripe = Jamaica
5. Sapporo = Japan
6. Modelo = Mexico
7. Singha = Thailand
8. Castle Lager = South Africa
9. Peroni = Italy 
10. Coopers = Australia