TRENDS

Put Some Heart into It

Valentine’s Day is typically a booming business for retailers, but what about in this atypical year? We won’t have real V-Day sales figures for a few weeks, but the National Retail Federation expects spending to fall from $27.4 billion in 2020 to $21.8 billion this year. 

Despite the likely decline, retailers might have avoided total heartbreak by applying some familiar pandemic lessons. 

What’s different this year? 

Aside from the obvious, not too much. In fact, Walgreens told Retail Brew it stocked a comparable amount of merchandise from vendor partners YoY. But a quick survey of some other major heart-shaped box and teddy bear sellers illuminates what did change. 

• Hallmark has tripled its e-commerce business during the pandemic, a spokesperson told Retail Brew. Gold Crown Hallmark stores have offered in-store pickup and curbside delivery for many same day orders. 
• Select Valentine’s Day items at CVS were available for delivery through Instacart and DoorDash, according to a company representative. ExtraCare Rewards members also received $10 when they spent $40 on Valentine's Day essentials like chocolates, cards, and fragrances.  

Another challenge: Matching supply to demand amid these adjustments. Kroger, which claims to be the world’s largest florist, has been working with major suppliers and growers to get enough roses and bouquets to couples. 

• “We work very closely with them on what they’re planting, what they’re harvesting, [and] exactly when we’re going to want it, so we’re able to time things out,” Jennifer Lien, Kroger’s director of floral merchandising, told us. “Demand for floral has been higher since the outset of Covid.”

A spring bloom? While quarantine V-Day will still provide a lot of opportunity for retailers, it’s not likely to be a turning point for struggling or smaller brands, Neil Saunders, managing director at GlobalData Retail, told Retail Brew. He believes another round of stimulus is key to helping them survive until the summer, when he predicts shopping habits will normalize. 

E-COMM

Uncut Stems

Online florists projected sales wouldn’t wilt during their first (and only ) pandemic Valentine’s Day weekend. 

By the numbers...The forefather of digital florals, 1-800-Flowers, expects to sell 22 million stems overall and 14 million roses this year, up from 18 million stems and 11 million roses in 2020. Newer DTC players aren’t far behind.

• Popup Florist founder Kelsie Hayes said her brand exceeded last year’s sales by Feb. 3. 
• Farmgirl Flowers founder Christina Stembel told us she’s expecting 400% sales growth YoY for the holiday. 
• The Bouqs Co. CEO Alejandro Bethlen said his biz will ship more than 300,000 bouquets, equivalent to 10 million stems.  

But on the delivery route...“The biggest issue we're having is transportation,” Farmgirl’s Stembel told us, “and we have four times more packages not delivered on time now than we did pre-pandemic.”

No one wants dead flowers on their doorstep, but shipping routes are still clogged. So Stembel said she’s adjusted by opening new distribution centers and signing additional shipping partners. 1-800-Flowers CEO Chris McCann said the retailer has 40 years of shopper and supply chain data to mine for guidance.

Disruptions deep in the agricultural supply chain also led some florists to lean on supplementary inventory—or new SKUs entirely. 

• Fresh picks: Farmgirl Flowers has 80+ arrangements, as opposed to its usual 24. With plantings disrupted, they’ve got more breadth but lesser depth to work with.
• Extra offshoots: Add-on gifting options small (handmade cards with pressed flowers at Popup) and large (1-800’s suite of food and plant brands to cross-merchandise) could boost sales. 

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JEWELRY

Handle with Carats

This year, heart-shaped pendants are to be seen and not worn—but not because someone picked the wrong gift. The NRF expects jewelry sales to fall nearly 30% to $4.1 billion YoY. 

Anyone still sparkling? Jewelry brands Retail Brew spoke with expected healthy V-Day sales anyway—but the holiday’s importance splintered along physical and digital lines.  

• Signet Jewelers President Jamie Singleton told us it’s a critical sales period for mall-reliant brands Zales, Kay, and Jared, with shoppers gravitating toward higher-priced items. 
• Aurate cofounder Sophie Kahn called the holiday important but “not as substantial as other holidays or events” at the DTC brand.   

Behavior to watch: “90% of [Aurate] purchasers are women and 80% are buying for themselves, so Valentine’s Day is not the first thing that comes to mind,” Kahn said. But other brands are courting self-gifters this season... 

• Signet has tried appealing to individual splurges this year with a marketing campaign emphasizing the “female self-purchaser.”
• Kendra Scott CMO Mindy Perry told Retail Brew that women made up more than 75% of in-store purchases from Feb. 1-11 in key markets.

For all customers, Perry and Singleton both said they’re emphasizing in-store pickup services. In Texas, Kendra Scott stores are also partnering with local florists for bundled deliveries.

Greater digital sales = fewer adjustments. Aurate’s noticing profitable growth this year without rewriting its formula. “Aside from moving even more toward online and customers buying earlier in the year, we’ve noticed very little difference versus prior holiday seasons,” cofounder Bouchra Ezzahraoui told us. 

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SWAPPING SKUS

Deciding what to read beyond Retail Brew can be a challenge. We did the hard part and collected some of the most interesting reads from the past week for you.

1. Breakups are hard, but staying in some wholesalers is harder. Thirteen experts offer their insight on how and when to pull your brand from a retailer. (Beauty Independent)
2. Amazon’s share of the online apparel market is only growing. So much so that industry titans like Nike are alarmed. (Glossy)
3. Online grocery has exploded, but that’s not necessarily good news for the country’s nearly 40 million SNAP recipients. (Modern Retail)
4. Instacart corporate is hiring. If you’re looking for a new gig, this explainer details what to expect in the hiring process. (Insider)
5. T-shirts and sweatpants are now standard workwear. So workwear brand M.M.LaFleur is adjusting accordingly. (Glossy)
6. A possibly unintended consequence of online retail: the dramatic cut in food waste, according to the CEO of the world’s largest online supermarket. (Food Manufacture)
7. Drugstores are there for our convenience, but do they drive customer loyalty? The quick answer is no. Here’s why. (Retail Dive)
8. The heir to the Wrigley Company fortune is now working on a THC-infused seltzer. William Wrigley Jr. believes his cannabis startup can be just as big as the family business. (Forbes)

ICYMI

Catch up on the Retail Brew stories you may have missed. 

• Rebecca Minkoff Joined OnlyFans for New York Fashion Week 
• Poshmark Expands to Secondhand Petcare 
• Retailers Are Expanding from Face Masks to Mask Accessories