Editor's Pick: do rising cases imply a second wave?

(The Editor's Pick is a new newsletter from The Hindu that provides a snapshot of the most important stories from today's edition of our newspaper, along with a note from our top editors on why we chose to give prominence to these stories.)

With the number of active COVID-19 cases in India showing a sharp rise, the Union Cabinet Secretary held a meeting with the Chief Secretaries of the States that are seeing the spike. Maharashtra, Kerala, Karnataka, Punjab, Tamil Nadu and Gujarat have been advised to reinforce preventive norms. So far, a bulk of the rise is seen in Maharashtra.

A key advice that has been given is the prevention and follow-up on super spreader events. The rise in cases in Maharashtra in being attributed to a series of super-spreader events, particularly in the wedding season. While several new variants of the virus have been reported across the world and in India, scientists say that the new spike is more probably related to super-spreader events rather than new variants.

With the rise in numbers, a second wave of infections like what is being seen in Europe seems possible in India. However, experts say that such a wave maybe in distinct pockets rather than pan-India and its intensity may not be more than that of the first wave, which saw a peak in daily active cases and daily new cases in September. India, however, has a large population that has not been exposed to the virus as per the last sero-prevalence survey by ICMR. The survey showed that only 21% of Indians have been exposed to the virus, though several experts have called this an underestimation. However, even much higher estimates will leave a huge population prone to infection. This makes the ongoing vaccination drive all the more important.

The spike in case numbers and the potential for a second wave is what makes the story important.

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