Good morning. Let’s basketball.

In the Waiting Room, Edouard Vuillard

Are you getting excited for the NBA play-in tournament and playoffs yet? These seeding races are pretty nuts and getting more nuts every day.

Here’s what I’m focused on: the 5-6-7 race in the Western Conference, and the 4-5-6 race in the Eastern Conference, which is simultaneously getting more and less clear as we run out of regular season.

Let’s update on the West race first.

West 5-6-7 Race

A quick reset on the stakes: the teams that claim the Nos. 5 and 6 seeds will face off against the Clippers or Nuggets. There isn’t much in the way of picking and choosing here: L.A./Denver won’t likely be settled until this weekend. No. 5 is more likely to get Denver, but it’s not even close to a guarantee.

No. 7 will enter the play-in tournament. They’ll face the Warriors or Grizzlies in the first game with the No. 7 seed on the line. Win that and they face the Suns (more likely) or Jazz (less likely) in the first round of the playoffs. Lose that first play-in game and they play the Grizzlies, Warriors or Spurs in an elimination game with the No. 8 seed on the line. Win that and they face the Jazz (more likely) or Suns (less likely) in the first round. Lose that second play-in game and they pack up for the summer.

For myriad reasons, the three teams in this race — the Mavericks, Blazers and Lakers — want to avoid the No. 7 seed. Rest is a big one. The risk of losing some odd elimination games is another. The loss of at least two home playoff games is another. Championship aspirations matters for at least one, maybe two of these teams.

It looked like the Lakers would land there due to injuries and protocols. L.A. crucially lost a close game to the Blazers on Friday that put them in a hole. But like a plucky survivor the Lakers have since picked up improbable wins against the Suns and Knicks to keep hope alive for Nos. 5 or 6.

The Mavericks did their part to keep L.A. hope alive too by getting obliterated by the Grizzlies on Tuesday. All three teams here have three games remaining. Dallas and Portland are 40-29, L.A. is 39-30. Here’s the set-up.

Each of the Blazers and Mavericks can clinch no worse than the No. 6 seed by winning two of their three remaining games. The Blazers have head-to-head tiebreakers over everyone, though in a three-way tie the Mavericks’ division title takes the top crown. The Lakers lose any and all tiebreakers here, so they need to make up two games on either team to get out of the play-in. They can do that by winning all three remaining games while one of the other teams goes 1-2, or they can do that by finishing 2-1 while one of the other teams closes 0-3.

The Blazers’ remaining games: at Utah tonight, at Phoenix on Thursday, vs. Denver on Sunday. The Jazz have been sitting guys, for what it’s worth. But a Portland win tonight keeps the No. 1 seed door open for Phoenix, so they might not rest anyone against the Blazers on Thursday. What a web! There’s a good chance Denver will have seeding stakes in play on Sunday.

The Mavericks’ remaining games: vs. New Orleans tonight, vs. Toronto on Friday, at Minnesota. None of these opponents will be in the play-in or playoffs. Excluding any game against the Kings or last night’s Grizzlies blowout, the Mavericks have been playing really well lately. It would be far more surprising if they went 1-2 instead of 3-0 in this stretch. They only need to go 2-1 to hold off the Lakers.

The Lakers’ remaining games: vs. Rockets tonight, at Indiana on Saturday, at New Orleans on Sunday. Unless Portland runs into a wall here, L.A. needs to go 3-0 to get out of No. 7, and that still might not be enough. That Pacers game looks like a bit of a trap, especially since Indiana has some seeding stakes in play. And all things are possible through Caris LeVert.

Chances are all three teams win on Wednesday night, setting up the Portland-Phoenix game on Thursday as a make-or-break contest for the Lakers. If the Blazers sweep this back-to-back, you wonder if the Lakers will just pivot to preparing for a play-in battle against the Warriors or Grizzlies.

East 4-5-6 Race

The other super intriguing seeding race right now is the 4-5-6 battle in the East involving the Atlanta Hawks, New York Knicks and Miami Heat.

None of these teams are at real risk of falling into the play-in tournament thanks to the Celtics’ collapse. But there’s still a ton at stake. The Nos. 4 and 5 seeds will face off in the first round of the playoffs, and one of them will get an always valuable Playoff Series Win and a minimum of four home playoff games out of this season. The No. 6 seed will very likely face the Milwaukee Bucks in the first round, with an outside chance they instead face the Brooklyn Nets. Never say never, but none of these three teams would be favored to beat the Bucks or Nets. So landing in the No. 6 seed here means that instead of a Playoff Series Win you get a likely first-round exit.

All three teams are currently tied at 38-31. Fun, isn’t it?

Here’s the tiebreaker situation. Atlanta has the head-to-head tiebreaker over Miami. New York has the head-to-head tiebreaker over Atlanta. Miami has the head-to-head tiebreaker over New York. If there is a two-way tie between any of the three teams, those tiebreakers come into play. Easy.

If there’s a three-way tie, all hell breaks loose. Why? Division winners! The first tiebreaker when more than two teams are involved is that division winners automatically earn the top seed involved. This is the reason Dallas wins any three-way tie in the West despite Portland winning their head-to-head record. One problem in this East race: either Atlanta or Miami will win the Southeast Division. So if they are involved in a three-way tie with the Knicks, we have to determine which one of them is the division winner.

Based on my reading of the admittedly complicated tiebreak rules, Atlanta will win the division if the two teams end up tied as they are guaranteed to finish with a better record against the division. So in a three-way tie, the Hawks get the first spot.

Then you go to record among the three teams. Here’s what that looks like:

Miami: 4-2
New York: 3-3
Atlanta: 2-4

So in case of a three-way tie, Atlanta gets the No. 4 seed on account of winning the Southeast and MIAMI gets the No. 5 seed on account of having the best record within the group. This is far because Miami also swept New York 3-0 this season.

Thanks to those tiebreakers, in this race it’s the New York Knicks who need help after their Tuesday night overtime loss to the Lakers. Here are the remaining schedules with three games left apiece.

Atlanta have the Wizards tonight and the Magic on Thursday and host the Rockets on Sunday. This is very likely to be a 2-1 or 3-0 situation.

Miami hosts the Sixers on Thursday and visits the Bucks on Saturday and Pistons on Sunday. This could go anywhere from 3-0 to 1-2 depending on what Sixers and Bucks show up.

New York host the Spurs on Thursday in the de facto 2020-21 LEAGUE PASS CUP CHAMPIONSHIP GAME followed by home games against the Hornets on Saturday and Celtics on Sunday. All these teams have something to play for so this could go any which direction.

The Knicks need to win one more game than the Hawks or Heat to get out of the No. 6 seed. If New York lands ahead of both teams, Atlanta has the advantage unless Miami beats them in the standings. Everything’s in play.

Whew.

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Scores

Nuggets 117, Hornets 112

Timberwolves 119, Pistons 100

Heat 129, Celtics 121 — Miami shot a shade under 60% from the floor. Sheesh.

Clippers 115, Raptors 96

Sixers 94, Pacers 103 — Anyone else notice that the Pacers are playing their best basketball of the season since the stories about Nate Bjorkgren came out? What’s that say? It does seem like Bjorkgren has simplified the defense some; defense certainly led to this win.

Nets 115, Bulls 107

Mavericks 104, Grizzlies 133 — One of Luka Doncic’s worst games in the NBA, which too bad because Dallas has taken care of business lately. They left the door to the play-in cracked open here. Ja Morant is awesome.

Magic 102, Bucks 114

Suns 116, Warriors 122 — Incredible back-to-back wins for the Warriors over Utah and Phoenix, the teams with the two best records in the league. And the Suns were trying and had all their major parts! It’s Andrew Wiggins’ world, and occasionally he remembers that fact.

As many have noted, this would be quite a fun first-round series. I mean, not fun for the Suns given that they could get a team that doesn’t have Stephen Curry instead.

Thunder 106, Kings 122

Knicks 99, Lakers 101 — You can’t say this Los Angeles team gives up or cracks. New York took control in the fourth quarter, but the Lakers (with no point guards available) clawed back by continuing to hold tight on defense and Wes Matthews got a fortunate, savvy putback to send it to overtime (yes, 200 total points in an overtime game in 2021, defense is back). Talen Horton-Tucker iced the game with a three. Or really, the Lakers iced it with more defense.

League Pass Cupdate

Waiting for Thursday …

Note that Wednesday’s Wizards vs. Hawks game is no longer eligible to count in the League Pass Cup because it’s on ESPN. I’m sure glad it’s not material to the championship! That’d be rough!

Schedule

Light schedule with some important games and an ESPN doubleheader. The most important playoff/play-in impact games marked with a 👀.

Wizards at Hawks, 7, ESPN 👀
Spurs at Nets, 8 — Spurs have four games left over the next five days, just brutal — and then at least one play-in game!
Celtics at Cavaliers, 8
Pelicans at Mavericks, 9 👀
Blazers at Jazz, 9:30, ESPN 👀👀👀
Rockets at Lakers, 10:30 👀 — LeBron is said to be coming back

Links

Great feature from ESPN on the 25 big firsts from the first 25 years of the WNBA.

It’s about a week old now, but this is a good explainer from Spencer Nusbaum at The Next on the Hawks’ front office and coaching situation given the last minute exit of Nicki Collen.

The Timberwolves sale involving Marc Lore and Alex Rodriguez has not progressed and the prospective buyers’ exclusive negotiating window is over. Groundhog Day.

Which player is most frequently the victim of incorrect calls according to the NBA’s Last Two Minute reports? Nikola Jokic.

One of my favorite annual columns: Zach Lowe’s Luke Walton All-Stars, celebrating players who fit their roles perfectly. ($)

Michael Pina with a piece on Dejounte Murray’s path out of a violent environment for SI. ($)

Why is defense so hard to measure?

Marc Spears talks to Natasha Cloud about her return to the court after opting out of the 2020 season.

Candace Parker on The Daily Show.

James Harden might come back on Wednesday.

Donovan Mitchell is going to sit until the playoffs start.

Jonathan Abrams talks to LaMelo Ball about the ROY race and more.

A Twitter thread with some bonkers Russell Westbrook triple-double factoids.

And finally: D’Angelo Russell thinks something that is not a chair is a chair, something we have all done at some point in our lives.

Bally Sports Detroit @BallySportsDET

Minnesota's D'Angelo Russell can hoop but his chair identification skills could use a little work. An offseason project perhaps. #DetroitUp

May 12th 2021

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Be excellent to each other.