Finimize - 🏆 The winners of earnings season

Hi Reader, here's what you need to know for September 30th in 3:13 minutes.

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Today's big stories

Europeans are spending as much as they did in the good old days
Our analyst has looked into where the biggest potential windfalls are this coming earnings season – Read Now
Micron broke the chipmaker mould and issued a profit warning

Nostalgia Trip

What’s Going On Here?

Data out on Wednesday showed that Europeans are spending as much as they did before the pandemic – and in all their old favorite haunts too.

What Does This Mean?

Europe’s been enjoying a return to almost-normal: schools and offices have reopened after a year and a half, and nearly two-thirds of the region’s residents are now fully vaccinated. So it stands to reason that they’re flocking to shops and restaurants in their droves, with the use of public transport at its busiest since the start of you-know-what. Even movie theaters are making as much money as they did in the beforetimes – all the more remarkable considering the lockdown-driven shift toward streaming services. The million euro question, then, is how long Europe can keep this up: tourism still hasn’t fully recovered and supply shortages aren’t going anywhere, so the region’s not exactly out of the woods yet…

Why Should I Care?

The bigger picture: The US wants more debt.
The US isn’t in such a secure spot. See, the country has a habit of spending more money than it makes from taxes, and it issues bonds to make up some of the shortfall. But the government’s now reached the limit on what it can borrow, and it’s looking for the votes to raise that so-called “debt ceiling”. If it can’t find them by the end of the week, the government could run out of money as soon as mid-October, putting a stop to everything from welfare payments to infrastructure investments.

For markets: A bad month to be a bond.
A strapped-for-cash US won’t be able to pay interest on its bonds either, which would send prices plummeting. That’d only add to the market’s problems: the world’s central banks have already said they’re thinking about raising interest rates, which would make existing bonds less attractive and bring down their prices. That threat alone has sparked a selloff, which might explain why the bond market’s on track for its worst month since March.

You might also like: How to think about investing in government bonds.

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Analyst Take

Earnings Season Is Coming Up Fast. Here Are The Frontrunners.

Carl Hazeley, Analyst

What’s Going On Here?

Third-quarter earnings season – when companies reveal how they’ve performed over the last three months – is kicking off next month.

And analysts are hopeful: they’ve raised their forecasts for earnings growth from 24.2% in June to 27.6% – the third-highest growth rate since 2010, if accurate.

The question for you is where they see the most substantial gains being made, so you can buy in ahead of any windfalls.

(And where they see the least substantial growth too, so you can steer clear.)

So that’s today’s Insight: what analysts are expecting going into the next earnings season, and where the potential winners are hiding.

Read or listen to the Insight here

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